My Daily Pick

Willi

Willi

At the Start
Joined
Oct 7, 2010
Messages
79
Location
UK
Hi all,
I'll be posting one pick per day on this thread, usually from the first A/W meeting and will update on my stats at the beginning of every week.

2.10 Lingfield – Where’s Susie
Proved on both course and distance, no disgrace in her latest effort and will appreciate the step in trip one furlong up. Well drawn for this match and balanced on the weights, showed improvement when dropped 5lb for latest run and with an over two weeks break should be able to handle the extra 2lb for current field. George Baker on board, had her in her two latest starts and should probably figured out by now how to pull her strings right same as in last year’s well conducted runs, also showing superb stats over course and distance which altogether give this team up a strong edge. Stadium Of Light and Soundbyte are the danger for this competent 6 yeal old mare. Stadium Of Light bares top form but has yet to prove on course and distance is drawn wide and up in weights and will probably be held by those from reaching first. Soundbyte drawn wide though proved to bounce from such stall positions and shows inconsistency which will probably deny him from winning this run. All stable mates for Where’s Susie ran to form in the last two weeks, a hint over the trainer’s efforts to let his horses get the upper hand.

Good Luck!

Won @ 7/2
 
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Kempton

5.30 Kempton – I Confess
Quite a busy runner this winter and doing well in his latest starts including two wins in recent sellers at Lingfield. Typically consistent and though hasn’t raced much in Kempton gave a wonderful 3rd in a class 5 claimer there, so chances are he’ll handle the field. Drawn low though of no significance in this small field, still, can’t hurt. Weighted well, dropped by a few since his last where winning, also able on distance which is a big plus in this small yet competitive race. Booked with Matthew Cosham which had him in recent Kempton claimer, jockey shows nice stats for course but lacks the record on distance hopefully the horse itself will compensate. Biggest threat is Ours, a strong contender which showed skills in higher grades and under tougher weights and is also booked with Barry McHugh which has brilliant striking rate for both course and distance. However, returning from a two month break and having his last Kempton run held more than 3 years ago suggests he might not succeed in this run as expected.

Good Luck!

Won @ 11/4
 
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Missed these as didn't look at the thread - great tipping - those posts on the today's fancy thread would be very well received!!
 
Cheers guys I'll make sure these go on the fancy thread as well from now on.
 
2.05 Warwick – Empire Builder
Not disgraced coming 3rd in his debut handicap hurdle and looks rather progressive to engage this run properly. Down in trip to 21 furlong where shown abilities on distance when coming 2nd at a Novice Hurdle at Leicester. Having done fairly well in debut handicap under tougher terms where running 26 furlong under relatively heavy weights whereas now slightly dropped in weights and down back to 2 furlong as mentioned, should have a chance of setting about his progressive notion. Booked under Andrew Thornton, not the brightest of them all, better on chase than hurdle however progression made with the 5 year old cannot be overlooked and stable mates all running to form strongly suggests he mounts a well prepared jumper. Seemingly Threatened by The Boss which if stays on could very well ruin chances but loses its edge as pulled up last time and now back up in weights. Biggest tangible threat comes from Deputy Dog which is marked as the possible fav for this run not without reasons as made similar progression and now under A P McCoy. Nevertheless faces its debut handicap and a carries a tough task at the weights.

Good Luck!

3rd @ 5/1
 
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2.30 Plumpton – Lepido
Troubles lately switched to chase but made good progress and remained consistent over his last three hurdle runs so all in all an able jumper. Back to chase now after a short break which is not common in jumpers, probably trainer spots his chances of getting involved here as finally came about adapting to chase. Ran to place at current course and if indeed gets over his chase mishaps then course handling is almost guaranteed. Able on distance and weighted reasonably. Jamie Moore on board once more, has a strong bond with the 7 year old leading him to place his latest hurdle run and also sharing the latest chase failures and should have by now learned from past experience how to handle the horse at such conditions. Jockey shows modest stats for both course and race type however far from being considered incompetent. Opposed by Manmoon, the only course and distance winner in the card which might bounce back his setback having recovered his recent falling and shameful 8th in his last two. However up in weights and not sure he will actually make this run.

Good Luck!
 
Lepido pulled out, guess chase isn't his strong side.


1.20 Southwell – Interchoice Star
Course and distance under his wing, consistent and promising in his latest races beating the fav for this run and going very close to other runners also listed in the current race. Overpowered Where’s Reiley in his last Southwell run, benefited low weights and a complimenting draw while Where’s Reiley struggled a wide draw. This time drawn better however significantly up in weights, not sure he’ll bear the weights keeping the margin of 9 lbs between him and Interchoice Star. Was beaten by Final Salute beginning of February here, this time drawn better than him and with a differentiation of only 1 lb in weight. Adding to that Final Salute’s latest mild run and chances are Interchoice Star will overpower. Booked with Andrea Atzeni, rode him back in 2009 achieving a complimenting 3rd. Jockey shows good stats, both for course, distance and race type.

Good luck!

Came 4th
 
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4.25 Southwell – Parahelion
Yet to prove on fibersand but playing very well in his last 3 runs, shows abilities to handle distance, dropped one class down to 5, and in general consistent throughout his career, all lead to his fair chances in this race. Booked with a strong jockey, Jack Mitchell which shows admirable stats in general and for race condition in particular. Only worry for this 4 year old are the high weights he’s been allocated for this run, hopefully his latest 2nd at Lingfield with 3lb less testify over his abilities to handle these weights. Opposes by Calculating, a course and distance winner and one which benefits suiting conditions.

Good Luck!

Won @ 3/1
 
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8.45 Wolves – John Potts
Course and distance winner and in top form of late, definitely the proper time for him to go one class higher. Booked with Kelly Harrison once more, lead him well in recent starts with no doubt about the strength of this team up and its bond on the course. Not heavy on weights and carried such in previous runs, drawn bit wide but made clear he can handle such. Opposed by What’s Up Doc, no disgrace in his previous runs and with decent jockey on board however not a model of consistency. Also threatened by Needwood Ridge which won his maiden 50/1 probably due to tongue tie fitted but no real evidence he can recreate last run.

Good Luck!

Won @ 3/1
 
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3.00 Carlisle– Lord Villez
A 6 runner with only three real possibles for this field. Running well in his last three races as placed all of them with a notable improvement in the very last where 2nd. No doubt a good chaser which handles current course and going, also the only one in the card proven on heavy. Teamed with Graham Lee who’s top jockey for current field and showing good stats for course and race type, and though won only once here since the beginning of the year should justify his position of top. Carries same weights as last three runs and will have a good chance of overpowering his two rivals Victors Serenade and Solway Sam. Victor Serenade, a top form jumper which goes under top jockey Sam Thomas and cannot be denied, but a chance he won’t like going and distance. Solway Sam, A fine hurdler completing a trio last year and but below best of late ever since up in class and weights and switched to chase, no real evidence he can redeem himself now dropped back to class 4.

Good Luck!

Won @ 5/2
 
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Thank you Chef! I know I promised to put these on the fancy thread as well but it sometimes slips my mind sorry about that.
Thanks for following m8!
 
2.50 Wolverhampton – Eternal Youth
A notable improvement in his last 3 runs under Luke Morris, excuses for January run as challenged running a class 5 handicapper, improved since fitted with blinkers in his last two and also fitted with them for current run. Proved superior to Captain Dimitrios despite being drawn wider and carrying 7lb higher, now back to face him and holds an advantage as both allocated same weights and drawn side by side. Also, Captain Dimitrios booked with Cathy Gannon who’s not much below Luke Morris in stats and performance but the last win with current mount was last July and with her tendency to ruin runs on favs there is a big chance for Eternal Youth to recreate last scene.

Good Luck!

Came 4th
 
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3.30 Southwell – Kingaroo
Won over course but yet to prove on distance, had a chance at it one time in his entire career and failed to
deliver but with recent improvement coming 2nd over 12f might appreciate the drop in trip one furlong down.
Booked with Billy Cray, a decent AW jockey and one with good stats for current race conditions, also
seems to do well mount the 5 year old, more than any other ever riding him. Drawn low and weighted reasonably
so little chances he’ll be denied. Opposed by Beau Fighter, a sudden improver under Dale Swift
but now ridden on class up to 5 by Fergus Sweeney which failed to deliver with him and worry this team up would
recreate the last poor class 5 runs they’ve had together. Also opposed by Trachonitis, an up down in
form kind of runner but a veteran of current class 5 with Paul Hanagan on board and course and
distance wins under his wing, may be the danger even more than Beau Fighter.

Good Luck!

2nd @ 4/1
 
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Thank U though I feel a bit out of form in the last couple of days :(
 
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Tough day today, many possibles and though nice prices can be derived due to high level of competitiveness I rather go for a single e/w as followed:

7.20 Kempton – Island Legend
Course and distance winner and though coming 8th in his last, as up in weights and facing competitive field, gave a good run coming no far than 2 lengths from the winner Six Wives. Rather consistent up until then and should bounce again to his recent form. Booked with Richard Kingscote once more, same jockey for recent couple of wins, shows nice stats for AW, distance and race type. A whole bunch of rivals, at least four of them including Desert Strike, Best Trip and Boragh Jamal. Desert Strike coming off two recent mild claimers back to handicap and experiences a change of jockey, one which had him only once throughout his career and not with good results. Best Trip seems more of a danger here than the former presenting consistency but not sure he’ll appreciate drop in trip to 5f. Tough race, both for runners and us punters but with Island Legend currently showing a price of 10/1 an e/w would be the wisest decision here that is of course price remains at this level. If goes under 8/1 I'd say leave it, but if you think he stands a chance back small stakes.
Good Luck!

NR
 
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bit of a long shot...

8.10 Kempton – I Confess
Top notch performance in recent claimers and no stranger to handicaps at current class, should make a strong appearance here. Proven on course and distance, well drawn and weighted nicely to cope with this run. Booked with Matthew Cosham , done well last twice mount the 6 year old and could go well once more.

Good luck!
 
2.25 Wincanton– Midnight Opera
Gave a mediocre run in his last but can be excused for running handicap debut at class 3
almost 4 months since his last race, a maiden where he won. Back to class 4 now which
is a big plus, proven on distance and though going seems to be a disadvantage, last run
wasn’t all too bad when the 31 lengths from the winner can be more related to the race’s
class and the horse coming off a break than the going itself. Mark Quinlan is booked with
the 5 year old same as last 5 starts, doing well with him and will use his experience to
bring the best out of the horse. Waldovogel the danger, a recent novice winner
also proven on distance and booked with A P McCoy, all pose a great threat to Midnight
Opera, hopefully the two months break for the former will hold him back as he shakes off dust.

Good Luck!

Won @ 4/1
 
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