Through boredom I am planning my first campaign of betting on the flat, so far I have determined the following~ avoid sprints, avoid sellers, back the favourites during July/August if the ground stays firm. Any flat gurus that can give me any general tips? I am a huge NH fan. What happens when the big southern yards send runners north to Thirsk, Beverly etc?
My debut at flat betting
- Thread starter jackie
- Start date
granger
Senior Jockey
Once Punch is over tomorrow, here will be a ghosttown until September apart from a bit of interest at Galway maybe
Avoid sprints ? What the devil ? Sprints should be you're bread and butter. For the simple reason the shorter the race is the more likely they are being run at genuine pace which makes form easier to read. Nothing better Imo than big field 6f sprints on straight tracks.
Back favourites between such and such ... No!.
Form does tend to go through a more reliable patch through the old Lester piggot period (after the Derby until the rain falls). That doesn't mean you should go off backing favourites blind. Remember you may be able to show me a minging statistic that shows a level stakes profit backing favourites between certain months it doesn't mean anything. There is absolutely no telling whether half of those S.P favourites were favourites the night before or whether they were double figure shots punted in. Always approach every race as an individual event, every situation is different, no two races are the same so never treat them as if they are.
Back favourites between such and such ... No!.
Form does tend to go through a more reliable patch through the old Lester piggot period (after the Derby until the rain falls). That doesn't mean you should go off backing favourites blind. Remember you may be able to show me a minging statistic that shows a level stakes profit backing favourites between certain months it doesn't mean anything. There is absolutely no telling whether half of those S.P favourites were favourites the night before or whether they were double figure shots punted in. Always approach every race as an individual event, every situation is different, no two races are the same so never treat them as if they are.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Avoid any sort of maiden especially 2 year olds unless you want to lay fav and Novice stakes races
I don't think there's a flat trainer out there on a day to day type meeting that has a clue what they are doing.
At times you will see 3 horses vying for fav and some 33/1 shot will stuff all 3.
10/11 shots being out of the first 4...don't need to lay many of them.
Sure some favs will win...one running now is 1.93 to win as I tpe..gone out to 2.3 2.1 2.08 2.12 2.16 2.04 2.26 2.08 2.2 2.1 2.52 1.73 2.54 4.6 7.2 16 200 winner 21.8
I don't think there's a flat trainer out there on a day to day type meeting that has a clue what they are doing.
At times you will see 3 horses vying for fav and some 33/1 shot will stuff all 3.
10/11 shots being out of the first 4...don't need to lay many of them.
Sure some favs will win...one running now is 1.93 to win as I tpe..gone out to 2.3 2.1 2.08 2.12 2.16 2.04 2.26 2.08 2.2 2.1 2.52 1.73 2.54 4.6 7.2 16 200 winner 21.8
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I typed that as the race was being run.................these type of races are a punters graveyard.
Ronnie Foster/Posltwaite a well known on course bookie told me lay on the flat bet over the jumps and at least you'll have half a chance
Ronnie Foster/Posltwaite a well known on course bookie told me lay on the flat bet over the jumps and at least you'll have half a chance
jinnyj
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Jan 8, 2004
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- 4,379
I wouldn't avoid sprinters either and especially those that cope with tracks like Epsom, Brighton and Goodwood often can win at all three as a great many horses (and especially sprinters don't handle undulations).
I tend to avoid Beverley and Windsor (although if a top jock stays for the last race, then it's well fancied as traffic can be a nightmare after an evening meeting)
With 3yo maidens, check entries. If it's got a group entry especially group one, then it's trainer thinks a bit of it.
I will also check breeding in maidens to see if they are related to anything useful. And likewise ground dependent breeding (i.e those by Pivotal often handle cut whereas the Danehills and American bred tend not to)
I tend to avoid Beverley and Windsor (although if a top jock stays for the last race, then it's well fancied as traffic can be a nightmare after an evening meeting)
With 3yo maidens, check entries. If it's got a group entry especially group one, then it's trainer thinks a bit of it.
I will also check breeding in maidens to see if they are related to anything useful. And likewise ground dependent breeding (i.e those by Pivotal often handle cut whereas the Danehills and American bred tend not to)
Tiny Clanger
At the Start
- Joined
- Jan 23, 2012
- Messages
- 383
Definately target the sprinters ! These races often have a more significant draw bias where the course is tight and stiff eg: Ponty, chester, thirsk, muss, AW at kempton/ wolves & chelmsf , so at a stroke you can rule almost half the field out.
Watch out for course specialists as well in the sprints eg: I'd do Kingscote every time on a similar hoss to Frankie / de sousa at chester/ haydock.
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Watch out for course specialists as well in the sprints eg: I'd do Kingscote every time on a similar hoss to Frankie / de sousa at chester/ haydock.
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