National Hunt RPR 2013

  • Thread starter Thread starter SlimChance
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Big Buck's is unlikely to hit the heights in terms of RPR.
Aintree looks a poor price. How many horses run to their highest mark of the season at the backend of the season.
Sprinter Sacre can potentially run a good mark at Sandown, Cheltenham, Kempton or Aintree.
Other than the above two mentioned you're left with the Gold Cup winner to hit the highest RPR unless there is an outstanding weight carrying performance which must be a big price.

Id the 5/4 buying money?
 
trciky market

Sandown with the Tingle Creek, not out of it
the key is where Sprinter Sacre is going to post his higher mark this year
he can run
at Sandown in the Tingle Creek
Newb in Febraury or Ascot in the Victor Chandler
Cheltenham in the Queen Mother
 
In 2004 Moscow Flyer was given 182 for his Queen Mother and 181 for the Tingle Creek.

I think Sprinter Sacre is more likely to run to a higher mark in the Tingle Creek as Sanctuaire is more likely to run him close in that race than the Queen Mother.

If Sir Des Champs and Flemenstar both make it to the Gold Cup in one piece that race has a shot at beating anything SS puts up.

Hurdlers aren't a factor imo. Big Buck's may be on the decline by the time we get to the Festival.
 
Sprinter Sacre skips Kempton so we can rule that out as a bet at 4/1. I don't see Aintree as a player at 6/1. I understand your points re Sandown but the only way he posts a Moscow Flyer style RPR would be if Sizing Europe opposes.
 
sunybay said:
Flemenstar is a horse for Ireland and softer ground will be a help for him.
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There will be a lot of ducking and diving in Ireland this year between Flemenstar and the Gigginstown horses. I'd find it hard to see a RPR topping rating posted at Leopardstown on invariably soft ground.
 
Shrewd observations from Suny I think. Sandown probably the value as a result, 33's Ascot worth saving on with the VC a player.
 
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I've no doubt the market is a rick because the 2nd and 3rd favs are so badly priced.
 
Thanks for the replies but Boyles would not lay me Sandown and Ascot dutched in their shops to win €1k. I don't see the point in having such a lengthy bet for a return less than that.
 
Grey said:
Next time spread the bets around different shops? It's a lot of hassle though.
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On a day like today weather wise the hassle over reward formula is negative but I get your point. Its a pretty transparent market so I chanced my arm, had the shop manager (mini Hitler) not been on I had a fighting chance.
 
Hurdlers will always be rated lower than Chasers (as a rule), and Sprinter Sacre is nigh-on stuck-on to put in the best chasing performance of the year, imo.

Given RPRs propensity towards soiling themselves at good-looking 2m performances, I'd want to lay Chelts/back Sandown at current odds, as I'm certain the ratings boys will go a bit daft when SS dots-up in the Tingle Creek. I'd then immediately lay Sandown/back Chelts, safe in the knowledge that they will hang 180+ on SS after he wins the Champion Chase - even if he only beats Magogany Blaze 2L in doing so.......arseholes.

All seriousness aside, SS is almost certain to go undefeated this season (assuming his well-being) and he is almost certain to punch big numbers in each outing (already at a seriously high level). He is also almost certain to punch the biggest of his numbers at Chelts - the ratings boys can't help themselves in that regard. Forget Aintree - they won't award a big rating for the Melling over 2m4f.

5/4 Cheltenham is a stone-cold good-thing, if you're inclined to tie money up for that long.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Hurdlers will always be rated lower than Chasers (as a rule), and Sprinter Sacre is nigh-on stuck-on to put in the best chasing performance of the year, imo.

Given RPRs propensity towards soiling themselves at good-looking 2m performances, I'd want to lay Chelts/back Sandown at current odds, as I'm certain the ratings boys will go a bit daft when SS dots-up in the Tingle Creek. I'd then immediately lay Sandown/back Chelts, safe in the knowledge that they will hang 180+ on SS after he wins the Champion Chase - even if he only beats Magogany Blaze 2L in doing so.......arseholes.

All seriousness aside, SS is almost certain to go undefeated this season (assuming his well-being) and he is almost certain to punch big numbers in each outing (already at a seriously high level). He is also almost certain to punch the biggest of his numbers at Chelts - the ratings boys can't help themselves in that regard. Forget Aintree - they won't award a big rating for the Melling over 2m4f.

5/4 Cheltenham is a stone-cold good-thing, if you're inclined to tie money up for that long.
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Excellent post. In a free market I'd have €1,200 @ 5/4 but I know Boyles wouldn't dream of laying that. So I tried to be clever and dutch Sandown and Ascot. The market is priced completely wrong but as ever bookmakers are not obliged to lay them.
 
Sanctuaire will beat Sprinter Sacre at Sandown - SS has never ran at the course and Sanctuaire will really serve it up to him in the Tingle Creek and cause SS to make a few bad mistakes he wont recover from in that race. Sanctuaire to win by 3L.
 
Careful with those bets, Swedish. I've just checked the race conditions and Sanctuaire apparently does not receive a 50L start.
 
Nothing is certain, they are not machines. If something seems too good to be true it usually is. Sizing Europe is a very good horse and if Sprinter does flatter to decieve Sizing will do him. Ran too many times on soft or heavy last year and probably lost his sharpness on good ground in the QM. It was a good sign De Bromhead pulled him out of the Down Royal race on that ground last Saturday.
 
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