Newbury tomorrow

SteveM

SteveM

At the Start
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Punchestowns faces just three in the Grade 2 Fuller's London Pride Novice Chase tomorrow on route to the RSA Chase.

90-2143 Martys Mission 7 11-8
38-1121 Red Admiral 7 11-8
11245-2 Dee Ee Williams 6 11-1
13/1122- Punchestowns 6 11-1
 
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His opposition is good enough to keep him honest. He should win but I won't be backing him at long odds on, especially since he is likely to be better over longer than the 2m4f of tomorrow's race.
 
Grey said:
His opposition is good enough to keep him honest. He should win but I won't be backing him at long odds on, especially since he is likely to be better over longer than the 2m4f of tomorrow's race.
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That's the way I see it... If there is a bet here it's for Punchestowns for the RSA Chase ahead of today's race.
 
I'd hope not too David - Henderson has a strong hand in the novice chase division this season.

Fail to see why Rivaliste is so short in the 13:30 Novices Handicap Chase - the RP seems to be under the impression that the horses form has been franked, the runner-up that day went on to finish second in an ordinary chase at Auteuil and then run well beaten in a poor G3 at the same track the following month. The horses who beat Rivaliste over Hurdles at Auteuil in March would using the figures I use for French rating conversion in the high teens (with the exception of Rock Noir who was 20 lengths clear).

Royal Mix - good form from his last start with one of the beaten horses subsequently winning a nice handicap at Longchamp (and also sold to the connections of Zaynar at Arqana earlier this month). Interesting to note that in his stabletour Nicholls states that the horse took a while to settle in when he arrived at the start of last month.

Prince Buster - makes his UK debut today for Alan King having had just the one start in the French provinces in a 12.5f AQPS NH Flat race. Nothing remarkable about that in itself but the horse that beat him by half a length was non other than the now Edward O'Grady trained Drinmore Novices favourite Pesoto. There wasn't much strength in dept to the race mind and it was 2 1/2 years ago. Think given that VC are 40/1 about the horse he's well worth a few quid each way.
 
davidjohnson said:
I would hold fire. From what I understand, the Arkle certainly hasn't been ruled out yet.
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Thanks for that David... if he were mine I'd expect him to go the RSA route though (I was expecting the same of DH but that seems quite wrong).
 
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Am I missing something, or can I really Back Punchestowns at 1.29 in a four-runner race, and place-Lay at 1.15 in the same event?

Is there a catch I'm missing?
 
Won very nicely did Punchestowns - looks to have taken well enough to fences jumping better the further they went. Hard to tell exactly what he had left but he was value for another 10 lengths at least. Disappointing that Marty's Mission was so close though having been beaten out of sight by Bensalem and Chariot Charger LTO.
 
Won easily. I thought his jumping a little pedestrian, although this may be over critical as he didn't seem to make any real mistakes. A bit sticky at one or two though. Finished the race well and value for more I'd agree.
 
davidjohnson said:
I would hold fire. From what I understand, the Arkle certainly hasn't been ruled out yet.
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Seems the Arkle isn't on the agenda:

Henderson: "We won't put him in the Arkle but there is the Ryanair - although I don't see any reason not to go three miles and we'll have to talk about going three miles at Cheltenham.
"There is the Feltham (Kempton) and a two-and-a-half-mile race at Cheltenham on New Year's Day to consider."
Source: PA

PP has cut him to 7/2 favourite for the RSA Chase.
 
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SteveM said:
Henderson: "We won't put him in the Arkle but there is the Ryanair - although I don't see any reason not to go three miles and we'll have to talk about going three miles at Cheltenham.
"There is the Feltham (Kempton) and a two-and-a-half-mile race at Cheltenham on New Year's Day to consider."
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That Cheltenham contest is the Dipper Novices' Chase over the Ryanair C/D.
 
Henderson doesn't seem to know what to do. Within the same interview - on RUK - he went from saying he "wouldn't be in a hurry" to go three miles with Punchestowns to "there's no reason not to" go three miles with the horse. I certainly wouldn't have Punchestowns down at this stage as a certain runner in the RSA Chase.

He looked very good today, though.
 
Bar the Bull said:
That is true. But you will be a poor man if you keep on backing horses at that price for the Festival in November.
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But I won't be... It was this particular horse I backed (i.e. I selected it) rather than all the 7/4 shots just because they are 7/4.

I been backing horses for the Festival for over thirty years and know precisely how well I do at it.
 
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