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EC1

EC1

On a break
Joined
May 7, 2007
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late 1960's early 70's
been having a look at the rose bowl from a class/distance angle...might be a load of old nonsense but it fills a post up:)

just using ...class A or higher... at distances of 12f+ ...throws up some interesting figures.

For anyone not savvy with A/E....AE is a measure of performance v price..about 0.90 is performing as the market suggests. Wins/runs are a little meaningless without this measure...0 wins from 50 runs could be a reasonable stat if all of them were 50/1+..but if all of them were 2/1 then its a massively negative stat.

FUN MAC
0000000000000000win/run000000A/E
Sire:0000000000011/53000000001.14
Damsire:0000000002/21000000000.53
Trainer:0000000001/64000000000.16

H Morrison has a poor record in this type of contest and the damsire AE are low suggesting the horse may struggle at this level/trip

SEAMOUR
0000000000000000win/run000000A/E
Sire:0000000000001/30000000000.26
Damsire:0000000001/16000000000.63
Trainer:0000000000/22000000000.00

B Ellison has no wins in this sort of race and has a 22% place rate compared to about an expected 30% rate. Sire + Damsire also poor AE's.

SIR FEVER
0000000000000000win/run000000A/E
Sire:000000000000n/a00000000
Damsire:000000000n/a000000
Trainer:0000000002/32000000000.42

C Appleby has poor AE and his place % is just 16% so fair to say he doesn't do that well in these races. His record with horses wearing cheekpieces first time is 3/25 with an AE 0.61..so no great shakes there. The lay off wouldn't be a negative with him though.

FOREVER POPULAR
0000000000000000win/run000000A/E
Sire:0000000000014/77000000001.20
Damsire:000000000n/a00000000
Trainer:0000000015/90000000000.95

No issues and many people will like R Moore for bang in form Haggas...the only problem i have with the combination is that when Moore rides for Haggas...overall he has a good record..27% and AE 1.03...but when riding at 12f+ for him this drops to 13% and an AE of just 0.51..win/run = 3/23.

JUSTICE BELLE
0000000000000000win/run000000A/E
Sire:0000000000042/30800000000.96
Damsire:0000000003/32000000000.70
Trainer:0000000000/9

Not much to go on re Ed Walker..just 9 runs. Looking at his stats though from class C and higher at 12f+ gives 2/34 with a low AE of 0.45. Damsire stats a little low too.

YORKIDDING
0000000000000000win/run000000A/E
Sire:0000000000015/10700000000.92
Damsire:0000000004/41000000000.66
Trainer:0000000023/18100000000.95

A damsire question mark against whether this one will stay this trip at this level is a slight negative.

GOLDMEMBER
0000000000000000win/run000000A/E
Sire:0000000000005/50000000000.73
Damsire:0000000000/13(15% placed)
Trainer:0000000008/83000000000.89

Would be questioning whether this can stay at this level with weakness in both sire and dam stats.

==================================================================================

Some clear negatives then against Seamour and Fun Mac who lead the market...lesser negatives against FOREVER POPULAR + YORKIDDING. If the Moore/Haggas distance stat was ignored it would be fair to give Forever Popular the best chance here. Will back both of these with bigger portion of stake on the Haggas runner.

Have looked at the 3.40 and have come down on Bear Valley + Larchmont lad... so will double those two with the above two to small stakes as hopefully a little fattener

 
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Have looked at the 3.40 and have come down on Bear Valley + Larchmont lad... so will double those two with the above two to small stakes as hopefully a little fattener

yorkidding non runner..so thats one double up:)...come on Ryan

 
I had Justice Belle on my tracker throughout her 3yo season last year. I remember backing her when she was beaten by Endless Time in a handicap at Salisbury.

Tomorrow Forge looks overpriced in the Joel. Set a course record last time out (admittedly at Haydock:ninja:) but the Gosden filly has been off the track for ages and Custom Cut will surely not have the speed to cope with the 3yos over 7f.
 
This time last year Gifted Master was really thriving but the wheels have dropped off after a bright start to this season. His best figures, both form and time, would give him a decent shout in the Joel today and I'm hoping to see Buick jump him out and make all along the far rail.
 
Euronymous said:
Custom Cut will surely not have the speed to cope with the 3yos over 7f.
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It's a mile race, Euro.

Although I'm backing Gifted Master, it will be interesting to see how Custom Cut runs given the view of some that there was a disadvantage racing close to the rail at Leopardstown 13 days ago. He stayed there whereas Awtaad came wide down the outside.
 
Really fancy Nations Alexander today at a decent price. Step back up to 7f looks like a smart move.

Silver Cambridgeshire I'm plumping for Bathos, which is a huge price for me. One that should out run its odds is Storm King now with David Griffiths from Jane CH and has been coming down the weights. Long way to come from Yorkshire to make up the numbers.
 
gus said:
It's a mile race, Euro.

Although I'm backing Gifted Master, it will be interesting to see how Custom Cut runs given the view of some that there was a disadvantage racing close to the rail at Leopardstown 13 days ago. He stayed there whereas Awtaad came wide down the outside.
Click to expand...

It's true that the four races run on the outer track at Leopardstown that day were won by horses coming with a run on the outside of the field but I'm not sure if there was a strip of faster ground there or not. Alice Springs was the first of these winners, for Ryan Moore. If he thought he'd found a 'golden highway' shouldn't he have attempted to repeat the trick with Minding rather than take her up the rail?
 
Turns out it's a bit weak in the betting but I took 6/1 Daily Bulletin last night in the expectation it would halve in price for the Silver Cambs. Maybe it's the high draw that's causing the weakness but to put it into perspective it would be the advantaged half of the Cambridgeshire draw tomorrow!

I do think it might turn out to be as easy a winner as GMH a couple of years ago (not dissimilar profile for the same trainer) but have saved on Laurence just in case.
 
This Hestina stands out like a sore thumb in the second race as something on the face of it completely out of its depth. Was a bit unlucky in running last time out but this is a huge step up. Note stamina on both sides of pedigree, with Dam out of highest honour in France who bred lots of jump horses. Wonder if this is too ambitious and they actually have a jumps horse on their hands. The fact they have left it in though with Hanagan on board keeps nudging me to have a small each way bet. Probably might as well throw my money in the bin but the Beverley maiden win was a nicely taken win even if a four runner race.
 
Euronymous said:
Tomorrow Forge looks overpriced in the Joel. Set a course record last time out (admittedly at Haydock:ninja:) but the Gosden filly has been off the track for ages and Custom Cut will surely not have the speed to cope with the 3yos over 7f.
Click to expand...
Yes I'm on Forge as well.
 
Intelligence Cross looks a big price to me in the Middle Park. Blue Point deserves to be favourite and Moore rides the other Ballydoyle runner but 9/1 IC is very tempting each-way.
 
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