I'm not sure I get this
The Bookies currently have Jeremy Corbyn as favourite at 5/1. OK, that's straight forward enough
They also have another book about the year that Theresa May leaves. Not surprisingly 2019 is favourite, top price 11/8, with this year (or what's left of it) next best at 9/4. In other words their over-round on those two outcomes is 73%
If they really believe she's out of office in the next 12 months, then how are they making Corbyn favourite?
If Theresa May is forced from office (which is what the second book is suggesting) then she's being replaced by another conservative, who then becomes the 'next Prime Minister'. Corbyn should be about 10/1, but since he's taking out 17% of the book, others who should be shorter are actually priced up longer
The only way Corbyn stands a chance of being the next PM is for Theresa May to call an election, and it needn't be guaranteed that Corbyn would win that anyway. Even if he did, he'd likely only do so in coalition with the SNP and or the Libs, in which case they'd insist on him withdrawing Article 50 as condition of their support, so he might not even get through the door even if he were to win
The next Prime Minister will be technocrat who is well versed in negotiating Brexit, which means David Davis at 12/1 or Michael Gove at 10/1 are the obvious value.
The big priced outsider incidentally would be Dominic Grieve (who isn't priced up) so Anna Soubry at 150/1 has to serve as a proxy, but a remain Tory also has a path which few people seem to be aware of. It requires Theresa May to lose a no confidence (feasible) and for the remain wing of the Tory party to field their own candidate (which they can do). Remember that a majority of the Tory MP's are remainers. The leadership ballot is held in secret. No parliamentary division where constituency members and chairmen can check up on which way their MP voted There are few electorates in the world more duplicitous and dishonest than the parliamentary conservative party. It's possible (though unlikely) that a remain candidate could come through and get to the run off (well it's not a 150/1 chance anyway). If the whole thing is going tits up by then, well who knows what the final outcome would be? By then it would be a choice between a hard Brexit and a no Brexit. Might the conservative membership blink?
The Bookies currently have Jeremy Corbyn as favourite at 5/1. OK, that's straight forward enough
They also have another book about the year that Theresa May leaves. Not surprisingly 2019 is favourite, top price 11/8, with this year (or what's left of it) next best at 9/4. In other words their over-round on those two outcomes is 73%
If they really believe she's out of office in the next 12 months, then how are they making Corbyn favourite?
If Theresa May is forced from office (which is what the second book is suggesting) then she's being replaced by another conservative, who then becomes the 'next Prime Minister'. Corbyn should be about 10/1, but since he's taking out 17% of the book, others who should be shorter are actually priced up longer
The only way Corbyn stands a chance of being the next PM is for Theresa May to call an election, and it needn't be guaranteed that Corbyn would win that anyway. Even if he did, he'd likely only do so in coalition with the SNP and or the Libs, in which case they'd insist on him withdrawing Article 50 as condition of their support, so he might not even get through the door even if he were to win
The next Prime Minister will be technocrat who is well versed in negotiating Brexit, which means David Davis at 12/1 or Michael Gove at 10/1 are the obvious value.
The big priced outsider incidentally would be Dominic Grieve (who isn't priced up) so Anna Soubry at 150/1 has to serve as a proxy, but a remain Tory also has a path which few people seem to be aware of. It requires Theresa May to lose a no confidence (feasible) and for the remain wing of the Tory party to field their own candidate (which they can do). Remember that a majority of the Tory MP's are remainers. The leadership ballot is held in secret. No parliamentary division where constituency members and chairmen can check up on which way their MP voted There are few electorates in the world more duplicitous and dishonest than the parliamentary conservative party. It's possible (though unlikely) that a remain candidate could come through and get to the run off (well it's not a 150/1 chance anyway). If the whole thing is going tits up by then, well who knows what the final outcome would be? By then it would be a choice between a hard Brexit and a no Brexit. Might the conservative membership blink?
