Nigel Twiston Davies and David Pipe

D

Double J

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I’ll just start by saying this isn’t a thread title to knock either of them or their work.

Last few weekends though, Twiston in particular, a lot of his horses seem to be getting absolutely hammered and shortening dramatically in price, then run no race.

Several examples of this I could use from the last couple of weeks. I don’t get it? Is it me missing something? Without sounding disrespectful either, they aren’t the fancy trainers either compared to some stables.

One example yesterday. Mossy Fen. Opened at 8s I think then went off somewhat shorter. When it was plainly obvious the horse needs further, jumps left, and is being aimed at the NH Chase from all rumours. Yet silly amounts of money come in for them. Before off I was left questioning myself and my own judgment. Luckily I was right.

Am I undervaluing the strength of their stables? Or are they more popular than I think?

Just confusing me, seeing money coming in for horses I can’t see for my life winning, then them not winning anyway.
 
Twister has made a career of picking up plenty of wins and decent pots at times when others might not be firing 100% and for the owners and backers that’s laudable.

Pipe is simply utter shite
 
Double J said:
I’ll just start by saying this isn’t a thread title to knock either of them or their work.

Last few weekends though, Twiston in particular, a lot of his horses seem to be getting absolutely hammered and shortening dramatically in price, then run no race.

Several examples of this I could use from the last couple of weeks. I don’t get it? Is it me missing something? Without sounding disrespectful either, they aren’t the fancy trainers either compared to some stables.

One example yesterday. Mossy Fen. Opened at 8s I think then went off somewhat shorter. When it was plainly obvious the horse needs further, jumps left, and is being aimed at the NH Chase from all rumours. Yet silly amounts of money come in for them. Before off I was left questioning myself and my own judgment. Luckily I was right.

Am I undervaluing the strength of their stables? Or are they more popular than I think?

Just confusing me, seeing money coming in for horses I can’t see for my life winning, then them not winning anyway.
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Just in relation to the odds of Mossy Fen, and to broaden into a wider point (about flat and jumps racing) for a second, I have never, for what it's worth, seen such volatile and unpredictable betting markets as we seem to have in 2020.

That's for both flat and jumps. This dawned on me a few months before this seasons Derby, when from English King winning the trial at Lingfield, to Russian Emperor, and / or Piledriver at Royal Ascot, basically a dozen horses were seemingly backed off the boards with the eventual result proving none of the money anti post went anywhere but bookies satchels, as Serpentine won at 25/1.

I just don't know who is gambling out there these days, (but then I never did!), or where/why horses are being backed and drifting within a few hours the way that they are.

Even the Paddy Power yesterday, they were shortening and lengthening so many horses in the build up. Some of this is understable but I just look at betting markets for clues sometimes these days and scratch my head in disbelief.

My note to myself is that if I am betting or fancying anything pay no attention to oddschecker as it only confuses me.
 
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Double J said:
I’ll just start by saying this isn’t a thread title to knock either of them or their work.

Last few weekends though, Twiston in particular, a lot of his horses seem to be getting absolutely hammered and shortening dramatically in price, then run no race.

Several examples of this I could use from the last couple of weeks. I don’t get it? Is it me missing something? Without sounding disrespectful either, they aren’t the fancy trainers either compared to some stables.

One example yesterday. Mossy Fen. Opened at 8s I think then went off somewhat shorter. When it was plainly obvious the horse needs further, jumps left, and is being aimed at the NH Chase from all rumours. Yet silly amounts of money come in for them. Before off I was left questioning myself and my own judgment. Luckily I was right.

Am I undervaluing the strength of their stables? Or are they more popular than I think?

Just confusing me, seeing money coming in for horses I can’t see for my life winning, then them not winning anyway.
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Horses shortening and being backed like defeat is out of the question happens frequently though. Without stating the obvious, that's why there are bookmakers. Are you telling me Paul Nicholls or Colin Tizzard don't have well backed horses that get beat?

English racing has more trainers competing to win the grade ones than Ireland. In Ireland it's pretty much down to Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins and maybe someone like De Bromhead. Maybe young Joseph O Brien will be up there in years to come.

The English training ranks is obviously different. While there is probably two in Nicholls and Henderson who sit at the very top, at least in terms of the horses they acquire, most of us could name 10-20 trainers who can train a grade one or Cheltenham Festival winner.
 
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One of the reasons for the Elliott/Mullins domination at the Festival with Hendo providing the only push back over here surely the ineptness of these sort of second tier trainers.


Twister I don't mind too much but Riders... should surely have been aimed at the Amlin next week rather than the Schloer. Although I did back him today tbf.


Hobbs is past it. He's had some top class horses in the past but those days are gone.


Pipe is a League one trainer. I haven't backed one of his since Kings Socks ;)


Alan King seems better on the flat.
 
I'm not sure I can buy into the premise of these trainers being poor at their job.

Are we seriously saying that guys that have trained winners of nearly every big race in the calendar are hopeless?

What does that say about all the others that haven't trained winners of big races?

Most trainers go through hot and cold spells. Some trainers go through cold years.

It is pretty rare for a trainer to have their charges run consistently well for a full season year after year.

I'm perhaps as guilty as anyone for ranting about a trainer not being able to train rabbits to breed but most trainers when they get their horses fit and well can place them to win races. Some, naturally enough, are better at it than others but Twister, Pipe, Hobbs etc can be lethal when their hot spell comes round.

How trustworthy they are may be another matter.
 
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But why should trainers be different to any other profession where ability ranges from brilliant through to indifferent if not useless. The top trainers don’t get there by accident (other than inheriting the yard when they don’t stay top for very long if they are no good) but, once there, they attain an ongoing advantage because they attract all the best horses.
 
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In a way, I wish I did not post on this thread.

The trainers are all competent enough to have owners who trust them with their rather expensive hobby

Complaining about others, often covers one's own incompetence

What we can all agree one is that there will always be standouts, others who do plenty but get no recognition and then those who get a lot of attention but deservenone

Just like a regular 9-5
 
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Hobbs is getting a bit of a bad rap, and I can't agree with it. His horses haven't been quite right for getting close to 12 months, and people are confusing that with his ability when his record says otherwise. He didn't suddenly become a bad trainer. He's also never had the ammunation of Henderson and Nicholls, and if anything I'd say he overperformed for a long time with what he had.

What we're seeing now is the emergence of Dan Skelton and Olly Murphy, and all the other young guns who are attracting big money from wealthy owners, and it's got much harder for trainers like Hobbs to but quality. Of the good trainers that have suffered, I'd say he's the one that has suffered most from the new trainers coming along.

I'd be more than happy to have a horse with him, and would rather him than Skelton who surely ate Martin Pipe and woke up as him one morning.
 
I'm guessing here - "When weren't you?" I hear them cry - but I think prize money [pre-Covid] is a major issue.

Certain races, especially the festival races and mega-handicaps, are now pretty much the be-all-and-end-all for some people, and the prize for the Grand National has become so vast it could be argued that it is leading to corruption.

It reminds me a wee bit of the British Cycling approach to winning by applying the principle of the aggregation of marginal gains.

I think the younger, more modern trainers maybe are more willing to apply a more molecular approach to training while the older school are more likely to go with their instinct. I think Hendo and Nicholls probably balance both very effectively.

I also think David Pipe comes across as less driven and maybe more honest than his father, which is to his credit, but he certainly knows how to put one away.
 
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Euronymous said:
Twister I don't mind too much but Riders... should surely have been aimed at the Amlin next week rather than the Schloer. Although I did back him today tbf.
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I bet him,too, but I expected STD to make more use of him. For mine, he was ridden with another day in mind.
My fault, not the trainer's.
 
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Maruco said:
Hobbs is getting a bit of a bad rap, and I can't agree with it. His horses haven't been quite right for getting close to 12 months
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is there any evidence why this is that relieves the trainer of responsibility for the reason why? because something like this is exactly what would put me off betting his horses. not just presently but down the line too if he can't keep them healthy. when do you hear of the likes of mullins, elliott, nicholls or hendo having a 12 month run of their horses not being right? and when you consider the sheer number they have in their care compared to the rest it doesn't reflect well on hobbs imo. obviously things can happen beyond his control but part of his remit is giving his horses the best chance of being and staying healthy.
 
King seems more interested in the flat these days. He doesn't go for the the bigger money stores anymore. He seems to buy lots of dual purpose types.

He's had some nice horses over the years but I doubt we'll see him having a hopeful Grade 1 winning staying chaser again.
 
JamesRB said:
is there any evidence why this is that relieves the trainer of responsibility for the reason why? because something like this is exactly what would put me off betting his horses. not just presently but down the line too if he can't keep them healthy. when do you hear of the likes of mullins, elliott, nicholls or hendo having a 12 month run of their horses not being right? and when you consider the sheer number they have in their care compared to the rest it doesn't reflect well on hobbs imo. obviously things can happen beyond his control but part of his remit is giving his horses the best chance of being and staying healthy.
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I get the frustration, but that's completely unfair James. Becci Curtis for example had a torrid time for almost two years trying to get rid of a low level virus that badly affected her string. She closed her yard down several times completely disinfecting it, and still it kept coming back. She was massively on the up at the time and it badly affected her career. There was nothing more she could have done other than what she did. Ben Pauling has had similar issues. Having to close down last year for 6 weeks. Trainers can't plan for a virus, all they can do is everything they can to eradicate it.

Given what's happening around the world right now I'd have thought it people would understand that a little better. Sure you wouldn't be wanting to punt their horses, just keep an eye out for when they come back to form. If you do you've potentially got a trainer with a lot of very well handicapped horses when the time is right!
 
As the only one on here who can say “been there, done it, got the unbelievably expensive effing t-shirt” you have no idea what a tough game it is!
You need money. Lots and lots of money. And some early success or you really do sink. It is such an expensive career to be involved in. I sold my house to finance my training. And due to a poisoned water supply that badly affected my horses (Jim Old also told me this was the reason he ended up packing up), I didn’t get that early success. And I haemorrhaged money. Owners took their horses away. They won elsewhere. Demoralising isn’t the word. Eventually when my landlord confessed, I was pretty much broke.
I know I can train horses (I trained horses in the US under another trainers name and also trained a Champion Point to Pointer for a local farmer 9wins from 12 runs when I moved down here). But there are so, so many factors to take into consideration. FWIW I think Philip Hobbs is an excellent trainer. And David Pipe is OK too. Skelton I think is very hard on his horses and would not be my choice but he has winners and has got noticed very early on.
 
Maruco said:
Hobbs is getting a bit of a bad rap, and I can't agree with it. His horses haven't been quite right for getting close to 12 months, and people are confusing that with his ability when his record says otherwise. He didn't suddenly become a bad trainer. He's also never had the ammunation of Henderson and Nicholls, and if anything I'd say he overperformed for a long time with what he had.

What we're seeing now is the emergence of Dan Skelton and Olly Murphy, and all the other young guns who are attracting big money from wealthy owners, and it's got much harder for trainers like Hobbs to but quality. Of the good trainers that have suffered, I'd say he's the one that has suffered most from the new trainers coming along.

I'd be more than happy to have a horse with him, and would rather him than Skelton who surely ate Martin Pipe and woke up as him one morning.
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Of all the overrated trainers, I'd have Olly Murphy at the very top.

Also, Skelton has had lots of ammunition to date but not sure he has more than 1 grade 1. Third Time Lucki, a case in point, looks great up against lesser animals, comes up short in decent company, then moves onto chasing, looks great against lesser animals. comes up short in decent company, drafts for two years until well handicapped.

Going into Cheltenham last year, Hobbs had Sporting John, Thyme Hill and Defi du Seuil. If anything it was a resurgence. Shouldn't be in then same list, as you suggest.
 
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in Ireland, I could think of countless trainers who are more deserving of better horses

The best "new" trainer i see is Gavin Cromwell

Another from the Gordon school
 
There is a whole tier of NH trainers in the south of England who seem to me to be pure complacent. They introduce their horses in the same maiden hurdles at the same local tracks year after year. If they win, great. If they don't, ah well.

They're not looking out for opportunities in the north of England or in Scotland unless they feel like a holiday. And as for sending horses to Ireland or France, it would never cross their mind. Presumably this attitude derives ultimately from their county set owners, who seemingly would rather win a novice chase at Cheltenham or Ascot than a Grade 1 race somewhere else.

Elliott, Mullins, Nicholls and Henderson have owners who expect their horses to cover their training fees and not just provide a day in the box at their local track.

In Ireland there are plenty of good trainers, and with Joseph O'Brien and Jessica Harrington doing so well on the flat there could be room for one or two of them to step up to the big league. Gavin Cromwell is certainly the most obvious of them, with a Champion Hurdle already under his belt, but he could do with backing from more of the bigger owners.
 
jinnyj said:
As the only one on here who can say “been there, done it, got the unbelievably expensive effing t-shirt” you have no idea what a tough game it is!
You need money. Lots and lots of money. And some early success or you really do sink. It is such an expensive career to be involved in. I sold my house to finance my training. And due to a poisoned water supply that badly affected my horses (Jim Old also told me this was the reason he ended up packing up), I didn’t get that early success. And I haemorrhaged money. Owners took their horses away. They won elsewhere. Demoralising isn’t the word. Eventually when my landlord confessed, I was pretty much broke.
I know I can train horses (I trained horses in the US under another trainers name and also trained a Champion Point to Pointer for a local farmer 9wins from 12 runs when I moved down here). But there are so, so many factors to take into consideration. FWIW I think Philip Hobbs is an excellent trainer. And David Pipe is OK too. Skelton I think is very hard on his horses and would not be my choice but he has winners and has got noticed very early on.
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Cracking post, Jinny, and probably more revealing than any other on this thread.
 
reet hard said:
Cracking post, Jinny, and probably more revealing than any other on this thread.
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Also Jim Old was an employed trainer and Wally Sturt was seriously winding down. Old not the most socially confident of trainers to attract new owners, plus towards the end he had his wife battling cancer, and the yard being sold.
 
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