Noland- Arkle Favourite

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What did we think? Thought he jumped beautifully throughout, lovely shape and make of a horse.

Trip is a slight doubt for the Arkle but I think he is much better than he showed today.

Did the other horse get up ok?
 
I have already backed Noland at 7/2 so I was not massively impressed. I was hoping he would hose up.

I would be concerned by the proximity of My Petra (beaten 1.5 lengths rec 8lbs)given the drubbing she received at the hands of Mahogany Blaze at Kempton, receiving 18lbs.

Henderson said she would come on for that and she duly did winning at Hereford but only in the final strides against the 118 rated Strawberry.

Noland jumped well, but hit a flat spot turning in which saw Psychomodo challenge for the lead. This chasing debutant had every chance when falling two out, and also appears to hold the form down somewhat as he was nowhere near as good a hurdler as Noland.

My bet is now struck so there is no going back, but I am far from confident we saw an Arkle winner today, and I fear he has not come back from injury the same horse we saw winning the Supreme.
 
I certainly wouldn't be backing the horse for the Arkle at the stupid odds on offer now (around 4/1) on today's performance.

The Powell horse looked to have every chance of turning him over (on its chase debut - it was certainly nothing special over hurdles) and My Petra was gaining on him again near the finish - she's no great shakes either.
 
How Noland didnt drift on the back of that effort, I dont know.

Think that his price was only justifiable (if it ever was) as he was unexposed with scope to improve.

After today, he is more exposed and running at level of form far less than his hurdles. I cannot see how he doesnt drift. The Nicholls effect perhaps.
 
Originally posted by Garney@Feb 22 2008, 08:50 PM
After today, he is more exposed and running at level of form far less than his hurdles. I cannot see how he doesnt drift. The Nicholls effect perhaps.
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I've got a bet on Noland at 12 on Betfair, I'm going to wait for him to drift then lay off
Trouble is I can't think of anything else to bet for the race so I think I'll leave it there!
 
"I've got a bet on Noland at 12 on Betfair, I'm going to wait for him to drift then lay off"

Is there logic to this or is it just a general spirit of generosity?
 
:laughing: :laughing: Sorry that does sound well daft doesn't it... What I meant to say is, I think since the price hasn't drifted already, it will probably even drift *in* a bit before the day :rolleyes:

So many Cheltenham prices seem to go with the hype rather than a proper evalutation - some people will just see 'Noland wins' headlines - or see the 1 in front of his name - and bet accordingly. We have a lot of 'once a year' punters around in March, and there is DEF a Nicholls effect - some backers seem to expect him to perform miracles!
 
Nicholls said after the race that he was fairly sick after Folkestone and reckons he is a fortnite behind at the minute. Probably accounts for his price holding up I suppose. On what we have seen so far, 4/1 is a daft price, though he'll definitely be suited down to the ground by a fast run two miles..
 
Shadow Leader

Any views of Kruguyrova's chance in the Arkle? Although the 5yo allowance will have run out by Festival time, she still gets the handy 7lb mares allowance and though there probably isn't all that more to come, she's a good jumper. In a decent Arkle she would struggle, but this looks anything but at the moment and I thought at 25/1 she was a good EW bet if she was to take her chance.
 
I think Noland's price reflects the question marks against most of his serious rivals. 2 years ago he wasn't all that impressive in novice hurdles but was good enough to beat Straw Bear on the day that mattered. I wouldn't be surprised to see him actually go off at a much shorter price on the day.

DJ - Shads is definitely the Edgy expert and her view will be informative but the Kruguyrova form line brings in Ring The Boss who looks an interesting ew proposition as well.
 
I'm sure plenty will take the mick out of me DJ, but I think she has a great chance in the Arkle. Moon Over Miami was close to favouritism before she sorted him out, as well as Big Buck's (who I still think she could have beaten at Newbury if she'd kicked on) so she must have every chance. It's no secret that I love the mare, have done since I first saw her in the pre-parade ring at Kempton when she ran a close second to Refinement over hurdles on her UK debut (she would have won if the track were left handed!)
 
She's done little wrong and in a substandard field she is definitely overpriced.

Problem is we need to know from those in the know whether she is going to run or not!

She was a little disappointing when I saw him run at Wetherby over Xmas,but I think any horse can be forgiven a bad run.
My main concern with her would be whether she can cope with the likely quicker ground at Cheltenham,she hasn't ran in anything quicker than good to soft so we don't know how she would cope.
 
Apparently Walsh has said Noland jumped as well as any Novice he has ridden. Some praise indeed from a pretty good judge?
 
Originally posted by davidjohnson@Feb 22 2008, 11:40 PM

Any views of Kruguyrova's chance in the Arkle? .... In a decent Arkle she would struggle, but this looks anything but at the moment ...
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I'm interested in this opinion as I can't see why it's so prevalent. it doesn't seem so different from usual to me - it's just there is no one standout horse.

Nick Shiambouros whose opinion I respect as anyone's in racing after spending much of the last two months listening to him, said on Bf Radio last night that it was a 'hot Arkle'. He knows his form inside out, inc irish form, so how come he has such a different opinion I wonder?
 
Moscow Flyer won an Arkle at odds of 6/1, with Seebald the 5/2 favourite. I suspect nobody really thought that to be a vintage renewal going into the race.

When Kicking King chased home Well Chief at 7/2 I dare say nobody really thought that renewal would spawn a Gold Cup Winner.

I often find that in the absence of a short priced "talking horse" going into a race, people dismiss the renewal as being either open or substandard.

If the public had latched onto one of the contenders, and the forums were full of people with ante-post vouchers for that horse, he would be talked up as being the next Moscow Flyer or Kicking King. Just because that has not happened in the Arkle it does no tmean it is substandard.
 
Moscow Flyer won at 6/1 is true. But that price reflected the fact he had fallen on his last run and more importantly he didn’t really have form ties through to the British horses over hurdles and fences and much of the time a horse like that is not really given the credit he deserves. There was a lot of hype around Seebald at the time but I remember plenty on here (particularly the Irish members who knew the form he had) were confident in Moscow’s chances.
 
That isn't really my point though. The Moscow Flyer Arkle was not perceived as being a vintage renewal at the time, and it was only his subsequent exploits that saw him emerge as a "super" horse.

Who is to say a Moscow Flyer won't emerge from this year's field?
 
You said yourself Moscow went into the Arkle on the back of a fall. He was a 151 hurdler at best. Tidal Bay achieved a rating of 149 in his last hurdle race at Aintree. He does not go to Cheltenham on the back of a fall.

Although Noland comes to the festival this year in an entirely different way to the multiple winning Seebald, you wouldn't say Seebald was a better hurdler than Noland, and were Noland to win and follow up in next year's Champion chase people would look back and say what a vintage renewal the 2008 Arkle was.

Hindsight is a great thing. I am not saying this year's renewal is going to prove anything more or less than standard. I have had a bet on Noland but I don't feel very confident of colelcting anymore. However I think it is jumping the gun to say it is definitely sub standard before it has even run.
 
Currently it looks a substandard renewal….that of course does not mean a star will emerge from it…but it does not take away from it looking substandard on paper beforehand.
 
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