Noland- Arkle Favourite

Moscow Flyer was rated over 160 over hurdles. I assume you are getting 151 because that is his last printed rating in the Racing Post.

Barton and Fondmort were in that Arkle, too. I seem to remember the Arkle being described as very hot. The reason there was no standout candidate was because there were 4 horses with excellent credentials.

Unfortunately, you seem to have picked the wrong year to make your point.
 
Indeed Barry…

Also in the mix were Barton, Youllneverwalkalone, the Irish Arkle winner Assessed,Kadaraan etc. No superstars in hindsight but at the time they all looked smart enough.
 
Lets look at it another way then. (by the way its nice to have a team of people fighting your corners as opposed to lil ole me on my lonesome).

Going into the 2002 renewal the the best RPRs achieved over fences for the first 4 in the betting were:
Seebald (161), Moscow Flyer (151), Fondmort (154), Barton (147).

The first 4 this year have achieved: Noland (143), Mahoghany (151); Tidal Bay (153), Clopf (139).

Obviously Seebald was vastly superior going into the Arkle on ratings, however with hindsight we know that he was vastly overrated and he had used his immense experience over fences to accumulate an impressive looking haul of 7 straight wins dating back to May the previous year.

So take out Seebald and you are left with RPRs that are not too far from the RPRs for the first three in the betting this year.

Take my other year for comparison, 2004.

The first 5 in the betting (I extend to 5 to include the eventual winner Well Chief) had best RPRs going into the race of:
Thisthatandtother (157), Kicking King (150); Our Armageddon (152), Carraciola (150), Well Chief (133).

Note the eventual winner's RPR was low because of his inexperience over fences, never having ventured into pattern company prior to the Arkle. Clopf's rating is not disimilar. He fell with the race won at Navan, and it would not be the biggest surprise in the world were he to win the Arkle. Noland is similarly unexposed over fences, so fits the Well Chief model of "potential" rather than proven form.

As for the others, Thisthatandtother was only 4lbs ahead of Tidal Bay, and Kicking King is 3 lbs and 1lbs behind Tidal Bay and Mahogany Blaze.

I think most would agree the 2004 renewal was a vintage renewal producing a whole host of future stars. But going into the race it was not, on paper, and less open than this year's renewal.
 
Bar, my point about the 2002 Renewal was that it produced Moscow Flyer, who going into the race was 150, and was not a massively well fancied 6/1 shot. This is an example of how a race does not have to turn out how people think it will. Following that race Moscow went on to become an all time great. Seebald went into decline.

You have ignored my points about the 2004 renewal, even though I referred to Kicking King in my inital reply to Galileo. Perhaps because that doesn't fit in with your argument?

If I am honest, I genuinely believe people are "dissing" this Arkle before it has been run because they cannot fathom who is going to win and cannot smugly say after the event "told you so". Whereas with Sizing Europ everyone on here is firmly on that bandwagon and won't shut up about it when he wins.
 
I don't recall either of the Arkle's mentioned as being talked about as sub-standard prior to the Festival. In both cases they contained horses that had performed well at the previous seasons Festival and had horses in them which had performed very vell in the lead up to the Arkle itself. Hindsite is of course a wonderful thing, and they both look very good in retrospect, but there was more than enough potential in both to think they could be better than average. Mioscow Flyers year in particular I remember particularly looking forward to the race.

On the other hand I do think Clopf is being overlooked and I presume this is central to the point being made. He fell last time when he would have won doing cartwheels, and Maralan the subsequent winner of that race advertised the form at the weekend. A fall prior to the Festival didn't stop Moscow Flyer and their is no reason why Clopf can't go close given a clear round.

It's also important to remember that hurdles form does not always translate literally to fences, and there are a number of horses who have improved massively this season for fences as there is in any year.
 
To be honest, I skip most of your rants as they are tiring. However, sometimes I feel the need to respond.

I remember the 2004 Arkle being described as weak enough beforehand; in fact I held the view at the time. so we agree on that.

But you were still talking sh!te about Moscow Flyer's year.
 
Nick Mordins verdict;

NOLAND DID NOT RUN BELOW FORM

I spent ages checking out the form and sectional times of the races on the Sandown card where NOLAND (40) won last week. And I'm here to tell you that he did not run below form as many seem to suppose. He ran another seriously fast time.

What happened was that Noland faced a much more serious challenge from his rivals than looked likely. His jockey, Ruby Walsh, must have thought he could kick into the lead on the far side, sail on around the home turn, open up a big break and allow his mount to cruise home up the straight. Instead both MY PETRA (39) and PSYCHOMODO (39) closed right up on him as they rounded the turn and approached the Pond Fence three out. And at that fence Phsycomodo actually jumped past Noland into a narrow lead and quickened up the pace. For a few strides Noland looked in a spot of trouble as he had to be ridden along to pick up the increased tempo. By the next fence though it was beginning to look clear he was going to get away from his two rivals as he moved back upsides Psychomodo going well.

It was most unfortunate that Psychomodo fell at that fence. But take nothing away from Noland. He kept going strongly, opened up a few lengths on My Petra and was still powering away even as she slowly eroded his lead in the last half furlong. Indeed Walsh repeatedly looked over his shoulder as My Petra closed in, trying to see if he needed to go for everything on Noland. He certainly had to keep him right up to his work and I doubt he could have pulled out much more. But the clock says this was a huge effort from him - equal to any race run by a novice chaser this season.

This race was run at a decent pace in the early stages. And they were really moving up the straight. In fact from the third last Noland came home 5.5 seconds quicker than they did in the other two mile chase on the card to record a final time that was 3.65 seconds quicker. That's a big margin over two miles.

However, fast as he ran here, I now have several concerns about Noland in regards to the Arkle. The first is that he has now run his two fastest lifetime races back to back and has just seventeen days to recover before Cheltenham. To say this is not ideal is an understatement. The vast majority of top two mile chasers are best on their first two runs of the season and then require resting for at least five weeks between their starts thereafter in order to run well again. Perhaps Noland is going to prove an exception in this regard, but I wouldn't like to bet on it.

The second concern I have about Noland is how well his jumping will hold up under pressure. To date he's measured every fence he's jumped perfectly. He's never had to put in a short one or stand off and jump big because he's met a fence wrong. So far he's met them all right because he's never been under serious pressure. In this race though when Psychomodo picked up the pace three out there was the first sign that Noland could be in trouble at the faster early pace of the Arkle. He floundered a bit on landing and got away from the jump a fair bit more slowly than Psychomodo.

I don't like to see a novice chaser head into a big race without ever having made a serious jumping error. Horses, like people, learn from their mistakes. So far Noland has learned very little about jumping fences and this may find him out at Cheltenham.

The third concern is allied to the first and concerns that statistic I've previously quoted. Namely that in the last twenty there has been only one Arkle winner (Well Chief) that made its chasing debut after the turn of the year which hadn't previously won over fixed brush hurdles. There's a reason horse's need more experience of fences to win the Arkle and Noland showed a hint of it here at the third last.

I also don't like the fact that Noland was 'as sick as anything' according to trainer Paul Nicholls after he won on his chasing debut at Folkestone. Sick with what? He didn't say but it's another clear cause for concern.

Finally whenever I look at Noland lumbering along with that big long stride of his I find it hard not to believe that he's going to end up being a three mile rather than a two mile chaser.

Clearly Noland is a high class horse and a tremendous prospect. But on balance I can't take a short price about him winning the Arkle.

My Petra emerges from this race as one of the best chasing mares in training. On her previous start she was under pressure a long way out but surged from before the last to get up close home. Here she was again finishing strongly and was closing Noland down all the way to the line.

I would be wary of dismissing My Petra's chances in the Arkle out of hand. She ran fast enough here to have a real shot in the big race. And she is the sole Arkle entry for a trainer who would probably have won with four of the ten Arkle runners he's saddled in the last two decades if Thumbs Up hadn't tipped up when cruising three out back in 1994.

Long term My Petra will surely get two and a half miles seeing how well she's staying on now she's learned to settle. Right now the 66-1 you can get about her for the Arkle looks plain silly.

Psychomodo isn't entered at Cheltenham. And it would seem a little silly to throw away his novice status with only a few weeks of the season remaining. I imagine he'll now revert to hurdles and then go back chasing next term. On this run he'll certainly be an exciting prospect when he does. My best guess is that he would have finished a close third if he hadn't hit the deck. And that represents a tremendous effort for a horse making its chasing debut. I guess the best thing to do now is rough him off for the season as his trainer has said before that Pyschomodo doesn't handle firm ground and that's mostly what we get in the Spring.
 
Noland got outpaced in the Supreme Novices Hurdle before staying on up the straight to take it in the last stride, so I agree that 2m might not be his best trip.

I also take Mordin's point about Noland having a hard race and the short recovery time left before Arkle Day.

Still, it's good to see good horses come back from injury as well as he has.
 
Originally posted by Grey@Feb 26 2008, 07:56 PM
Noland got outpaced in the Supreme Novices Hurdle before staying on up the straight to take it in the last stride, so I agree that 2m might not be his best trip.
Click to expand...
I'm inclined to think AP McCoy lost the race on Straw Bear, meeting the last all wrong and allowing Noland to inherit it. I'm not entirely convinced he's right about Well Chief. I've got it into my head that Champleve debuted in February too, and seem to think Nakir might have left it late to jump a fence
 
Latest entries out today for the Arkle:

Clopf (IRE) 7.g
Enlightenment (IRE) 8.g
French Accordion (IRE) 8.h
Gardasee (GER) 6.g
Kruguyrova (FR) 5.m
Leslingtaylor (IRE) 6.g
Mahogany Blaze (FR) 6.g
Marodima (FR) 5.g
Moon Over Miami (GER) 7.g
Noland 7.g
Orpen Wide (IRE) 6.g
Premiership (IRE) 12.g
Ring The Boss (IRE) 7.g
Scotsirish (IRE) 7.g
Thyne Again (IRE) 7.g
Tidal Bay (IRE) 7.g
Tramantano 9 g
 
I see Fergus Wilson will be mob handed with Premiership in this as well as poor old Contraband who will no doubt run in the Champ Hurdle as well as the Gold Cup.
Mind you as he has entries in the Ryanair and the Queen Mum (as well as the National) who's to say he won't run in them all!!
 
Yes. According to my trends, horses who farted twice during the first full moon of the year have absolutely no chance whatsoever in this race and I have it on good authority that such an event did indeed come to pass. If he went for the Grand Annual however........
 
French Accordion may yet still go for Aintree....trainer not mad keen on running him at Chelt but might be forced to
 
I'm told that connections of Thyne Again are quite confident after being told the ground would be safe - just a slight concern about the downhill run given his previous leg difficulties

Apparently, Russell got a bit of a bollocking after losing out at Leopardstown for not riding the horse more prominently and closer to Jy'vole....was told in no uncertain terms not to do the same at Naas and look what happened. I'm not at all convinced the Arkle is the race for him but love the horse as you know - at 10/1 I think he's a fair each way bet but if he was mine I'd be leaning towards the Powers but again, the owners want this.
 
Delighted to hear the rain forecast for Thyne Again. Still a bit dissapointed they havn't stuck to the original plan though.

Looks a very weak Arkle overall.
 
I suppose all you can say is that with the horse's past injury problems, this may be the only time he ever gets to Cheltenham...who knows. With a sounder horse historically you'd be more likely to wait. I'm not confident about him as an Arkle horse in the traditional sense but then you look at the likely opposition and realise it's not all that daunting. Had 50 each way @10's today and I'm happy enough with that. Will top up on Betfair as well.
 
Great performance from the winner, got his jumping up together there.

Noland's my favourite horse in training so I was so hoping he would win just for that reason, but I didn't back him at any point and have to say I don't think he's quite the horse I hoped he would shape into.

My money was on Kruguyrova each way, who also ran a cracker, pretty tough mare that one.
 
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