Novice Hurdlers 2016/17

Or she's going to the Supreme which I'm and advocate of. She'd go there with an outstanding chance and I reckon Ruby would ride. Bunk Off Early is a flat Bred for the owners and they have a terrible record. Should be saved for Aintree imho.

Sorry Archie, although you already know my thoughts.
 
Very true Archie, and I'm sure you're right.

I'd counter by saying that Shadow Leader won on genuine quick ground, and Ebaziyan ran and was touched off in soft ground over a mile and half on his flat debut and became a genuine stayer in the flat before his switch.

Bunk Off Early has a very different profile than the two exceptions. He's was essentially a miler on the flat, and he'll be running in a race that will require getting every yard of the trip at Championship pace on what is likely to be weather delivered good to soft at best, rather than 'Claisse' delivered good to soft which is often much quicker.

Clearly Willie and the Supreme guys know both horses infinitely better than I do, so I'm offering nothing more than an opinion. Although I believe it with some conviction. The flip side is I will be a supporter of both horses on their respective days irrespective of their targets, and I'll be adding my voice to yours if they're in with a shout over the last irrespective of what I've backed. I'd genuinely love to see them both win for you.
 
Thanks Maruco. The problem with stats is that you can use them to knock out all the favourites - not coming on from a handicap, should have run this calendar year, etc. I don't think BOE ran often enough on the flat to establish what would have been his optimum distance and, although there aren't many hurdling Zebedees, he hasn't been standing for long enough to prove anything. I tend to go on the basis that the dam gives the stamina and the sire gives his stamp to the frame of his progeny. If you look at the likes of Ivawood and BOE, that stamp is quite impressive. BOE came with the recommendation of his flat trainer, Andy Oliver, who also came up with Long Dog.
BOE and Airlie are very different types but over 2 miles I think I'd side with BOE. Any further I'd like Airlie's chances. All personal opinions.
 
Yes absolutely Archie. Let's face it Red Rum ran over seven furlongs on the flat, and Kauto Star should have been a two mile horse. If either of yours have half those careers you'd be over the moon.
 
Neon Wolf all the rage for the supreme now

7s/8s nrnb feels like a bad error by Denise over the weekend
 
Just noticed Defi and Charli Parcs are both not in the latest declarations for the Supreme. Thought they would've kept Defi in there just in case it came up soft on Day 1.
 
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This is shaping up as the weakest Supreme since Cinders & Ashes in 2012.

2016 - won by Altior OR155 from Min 153 & Buveur d'Air 154 (average first 3 154)
2015 - Douvan 155
2014 - Vautour 155
2013 - Champagne Fever 148, bt MTOY 162 & Jezki 154

This year the highest UKOR published is Neon Wolf's 148. The next highest is 142. Let's Dance 147 is the highest Irish rating but she'll have the 7lbs allowance. Whether the drop back to 2m and a very strong pace will suit is another matter. Airlie Beach is on 141 so cold be on a par with Neon Wolf and will be fine at the trip.

That's not to say there aren't any 155 horses (LD aside) in the field but they'll have to improve a lot to get there.

Edit - I now see that the County weights show the updated ratings for Ballyandy (147) and Movewiththetimes (146). There may be more.
 
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How on this planet could Melon be rated 153? That is the biggest joke in history of handicapping

The horse he beat according to Gordon E couldn't win off 110 with a rocket tied to it's ass.

Smith is a wanckkkker and his rating is nothing more than assumptive based NOT on facts to hand

Personally I think Melon will hack up but that has f'all to do with anything
 
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Tanlic said:
How on this planet could Melon be rated 153? That is the biggest joke in history of handicapping

The horse he beat according to Gordon E couldn't win off 110 with a rocket tied to it's ass.

Smith is a wanckkkker and his rating is nothing more than assumptive based NOT on facts to hand

Personally I think Melon will hack up but that has f'all to do with anything
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higher than faugheen before the Neptune? I can't fathom this
 
Don't get me wrong re Melon he may well be as good as the suggested rating but it makes it no less ridiculous.

You couldn't back him on his win in the Prix De Moulins, He travelled all over them in that but once he and the second went clear it was more workmanlike than classy.

You could back him knowing Willie Mullins seems to think he's past the post and is already talking Champion Hurdle or Arkle which is way more confidence than he had in Min last year.
 
By all accounts Melon may not be a joke favourite for the supreme. By all accounts has been smashing Bunk Off Early at home.
If Neon Wolf goes Neptune may be a good thing! Even more so if Moon racer goes to the CH.
 
He would want to as Bunk of Early apparently doesn't wake up until he gets on the racecourse BOE is owned by the Supreme Horse Racing Club which should tell you where they want to run him LOL

WPM is adamant Ruby should ride Melon and if he does I won't oppose him

ANYWAY where's Grassy Du Seuil? he must be worried now Charli is heading to the Triumph. Fair to say he ran a stinker in the Adonis but that's just Nicky for you...........he loves to leave them short and sharpen them up a Kempton although most win.

Barry did say Charli was taking a right hold again when he fell and he is confident he would have found plenty.

I still expect him to win and the main danger is master Blue Eyes who did look good...........Defi has beaten trees and only 2 winners have come out of his races.he could be a false fav who could be found out and is worth opposing IMO
 
Neon Wolf's owner Mick Masterson is related to my brother in law. As of last night he was 70/30 to go to the supreme to get any bit of juice in the ground. What rain they get tomorrow will ultimately decide it.


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Tanlic said:
Barry did say Charli was taking a right hold again when he fell and he is confident he would have found plenty.

I still expect him to win and the main danger is master Blue Eyes who did look good...........Defi has beaten trees and only 2 winners have come out of his races.he could be a false fav who could be found out and is worth opposing IMO
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Corky Brown said Fehily told them that he tried to do the same at Kempton at Christmas when he won easily. When he was among horses he said it was almost like he panicked, that he was claustrophobic so he just let him on so not entirely sure he was short of fitness.

They still really really really like him at 7 barrows tho and are very sweet on his chances. Fehily riding him again is a bonus as he knows his trait now and you'd expect him to have him in a position to let him get him daylight if he needs it.


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The obviously question is why were you wearing the hat and what else of hers do you wear? :whistle::lol:
 
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