Novice Hurdlers 2020/21

Double J said:
Anyone get the feeling some 66/1 absolute doggers of a horse is going to win Supreme?
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Not really. I get your drift though.

There are viable alternatives to the fav.

I've backed Blue Lord each way with Hills at 16s outright, more in hope of improvement than expectation.

He's also entered in the county hurdle but I'm hoping the owners and trainer might view the supreme as the realistic race to go for now, especially with the non runners stated above.
 
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Double J said:
Anyone get the feeling some 66/1 absolute doggers of a horse is going to win Supreme?
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I saw an opinion recently that the current market leaders don't look up to recent standards, which might open the door to a surprise result.

I think Olly Murphy had big outsiders placed in recent festival novice races so it isn't impossible.

Let's hope some of the fold on here are on them!
 
I've gone from the wanting to take on Appreciate it camp to the "he just wins'' camp, the opposition just looks bang average and I say that as someone with two Soaring Glory dockets @ 100/1 and 33/1.
 
When I check oddschecker all I see is Metier, Ballydam, and Soaring Glory showing up blue all the time.

Should be an interesting betting contest nearer the time.

My gut feeling when seeing 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites, all shortening, is that logic dictates there's more chance of at least one of them, maybe two, or maybe all three getting closer to the fav on the day than previously thought.

I just hope Blue Lord is declared and I've paid my money took my chance at decent each way odds.
 
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Marb said:
My gut feeling when seeing 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites, all shortening, is that logic dictates there's more chance of at least one of them, maybe two, or maybe all three getting closer to the fav on the day than previously thought.
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A lot of layers are gonna be offering 4/5/6 places upon decs so this is simply a precursor to that move.
 
6 places my arse....

Who would offer 6 places on a race with an even money fav and only four possible dangers to the fav?

Chuck in a couple of rags and you'll be looking at a 10-12 runner field max.

The reason they're backing everything at the top of the market is cos they think every think can win, when actually only 1 horse can win, meaning the real value now is to be backing something like Blue Lord at 16s, which is exactly what I've done.
 
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Marb said:
6 places my arse....

Who would offer 6 places on a race with an even money fav and only four possible dangers to the fav?

Chuck in a couple of rags you'll be looking at a 10-12 runner field max.
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Hills offered 7 last year

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Marb said:
Honestly, I think it's a different race this year. We'll see.
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For Asterion Forlonge, read Appreciate It because while 3/1 may be pushing it, 2/1+ will be available at some point.

Then you've got Metier, Ballyadam and Soaring Glory filling three of the roles of Shishkin, Chantry House, Abacadabras and Fiddler

Not that I'm suggesting they've the same ability. But the shape of the market is very close
 
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Yeah looking forward to how the betting develops on the race for sure, Lee.

Having looked again, I guess there's a dozen or so of the rest of the entries that could run, so yeah maybe a 16-20 runner field will develop.

I await Wednesdays declaration stage. I hope to see Blue Lord still in there.
 
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Marb said:
I await Wednesday's declaration stage. I hope to see Blue Lord still in there.
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I'd be surprised if he isn't there, Mullins leaves them all in until the last minute...Keep you guessing, keep the prices higher!
 
As I mentioned in another thread Danny Mullins in a recent preview stated the Supreme was a one horse race which without even watching him run I lumoed on to Appreciate It,,,I watched him win at the Dublin Festival in a recording yesterday and thought" doesn;t look like a world beater to me:blink: He does look a huge unit and can obviously gallop but Dunguib looked classier and he was defeated easily in this........If I had looked before I leapt I certainly wouldn't have had half the amount on I have....can only hope Danny Mullins is right
 
Dunquib was beaten by 2 lenghts, having no jockey and loosing about 10 lenghts going wide the whole way, and this year a **** poor renewal.
 
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I think vanillier is to big a price in the spud race . He needs forgiving his poor run latest but the stable has been quiet ( promising signs last day or so that they may be coming back)

Earlier form seems comparable to the fav.... Just think in what seems a below average renewal he could run well at a price
 
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