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Novice & Maiden Hurdlers 2025-2026 - Who Might Step Up?

C

chaumi

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Joined
Oct 7, 2012
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1,377
Location
East Midlands
I tried this a few years back, but time got the better of me. Now, I'm 'officially' retired (at least from the Telecoms day job of some 45 years) as of end last Friday. I'm thinking I may have enough time to at least get into the depths of winter with this ( a camper van trip to Portugal is on the cards in the new year and that will put the brakes on if it happens), but this time around I'll avoid presenting cases for runners before the races (takes too long, especially if you want to do it 'well', or at least with well-presented arguments), and focus on which horses show enough promise to suggest they might pop up in future.

ofc, I'm really looking for runners that will go off at proper enough prices somewhere (although anyone is ofc welcome - and encouraged - to put up their thoughts/observations around likely shorter-priced future winners).

Not all races, just not doable. But a selected number that look as if they might be telegraphing something interesting.

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We're a few weeks in, but one of the hottest looking maidens so far was the 1.58 Ffos Las 28th Oct won by PH's Starzand.

A fair few finished close up in this, so most of the key runners are not going to be going off at big(gish) prices for some time.

  • Kim Bailey's Gatineu Park ran well to finish 5th, about 5 lengths off the winner. This one is well liked within the Bailey yard, they'll have been well pleased with this run.
  • Dan Skelton probably wouldn't have been disappointed with the run of the fairly well-fancied Soldier Of Fortune - Big Cadillac - coming home in 6th. Some might underestimate future chances based on this run, maybe 3 miles will see some good performances in future.
  • I noted the Robert Stephens runner Aaron as having zero chance on paper before the race and against this field, but potentially one for much later on in a low grade race. In theory, should have come home 50 lengths + behind the winner here. Only a 4-year old, ran well enough - only 4 lengths off the 6th-placed horse - to suggest that a low-class handicap will be within reach down the line. This run should go unnoticed, especially if Aaron gets well beaten in similar standard races before handicaps.

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Fontwell 12.50 7th Nov

A strongish-looking maiden.

Nothing was expected from Kim's Driving Miss D'Azy, so to finish beaten a respectable 20-odd lengths in midfield wasn't a bad effort given handicaps were always the target. Went off 300-1. Just a small worry this run might have been just a little too promising, but hopefully won't significantly hamper future chances of a good big-odds run.

Harry Fry's Affinisea - Hardly Surprising - went off a fairly short price. Got badly hampered two out, which ended his chances. Likely has something, though. Difficult to tell if he'll be allowed to go off at a backable price for a while.

Harry Derham was reportedly expecting 33-1 shot Crystal Ocean to improve massively for the run here, and perhaps over further. A 20-length 6th wasn't devoid of promise.


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12.25 Hex 7th Nov Mares Novice

Sue Smith's Soldier Of Fortune - Mad Mag - had no right on paper to run any sort of race here. 600 odd days off, and a SOF over 2 miles. But the market was giving little whispers if you read between the lines, holding steady at around 50 on the exchange. It was possible she could show something over this stiff 2 miles and with 60-75% of the field likely making up numbers. So it proved, front rank for most of the race, only caving towards the business end. When Sue steps this one up will probably be the day to take real notice. Clearly has something.
 
Upon tweed N.Richards.
a lot said about this beforehand and I almost put it in my darkhorse for the comp.
Came out and won easily despite making a couple of novice mistakes.
Timeform gave it a big P.
 
Chaumi - I stuck Starzand in as my Dark Horse on the strength of that win and the seemingly very positive response from connections after the race. I then collared Johnson at Newton Abbot and he was very positive about the horse. So I was surprised to see Philip implying that Sober Glory was the best in their yard as Johnson seemed to be in the other camp.
 
A couple 'disgraced' themselves today with better-than-expected runs. Well, let's say 'semi-disgraced', both beaten far enough that double-figure odds at least might be on the cards in future, while equally showing there's some ability in coming home 3rd at big odds.

In the 1.40 at Ffos Las - a two and a half mile maiden hurdle - Pipey's Allstitchedup was described pre-race as a 'long-distance chasing giant'. This 17-length 3rd on hurdling debut indicates there's some ability in this point-winning, Telescope-sired gelding out of a Midnight Legend mare. Might well pick up a hurdle (over further maybe) before going chasing. Edit: post race comment from the yard - "travelled well and cruised into contention before a mistake at the third last cost him any chance of winning and he got a little tired. It was a pleasing return to action and he will improve a lot for this run".

In the 1.52 at Naas, a similar distance, I was hoping for a lesser run from Philip Rothwell's Soldier Of Fortune - Bulgaden Castle - in the hope of 33-1 plus in a handicap down the line. Finished 3rd at 50-1, but also 17 odd lengths behind the winner. I suspect he just got pulled into 3rd courtesy of nothing else handling the test at this stage (ground bordering heavy), and hopefully the markets will see it that way too over his next 3-4 runs.
 
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10th Nov 1.00 Kempton

Sheena West's Sixties Icon - Reteti - showed some ability in a couple of bumpers a couple of years ago, followed by a stint at around a mile on the flat with minor promise.

Finished a happy, perfectly-placed last at 50-1 in this 6-runner class 4 novice.

The first two home (Skelton and Pauling) look above average. As expected, Reteti couldn't hang on to the field over this easy 2 miles on good to soft looking ground, spending the entire race at the back. Made up a little ground mid race, and held that position without wilting - well enough to indicate there will be races for him down the line once more experienced and perhaps on softer ground and/or two and a half.
 
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11th Nov Karlita Desbois 1.26 Huntingdon Mel Rowley's Beaumec De Houelle mare ran around green on hurdling debut in the early part of the race, lost ground on most of the field halfway, ultimately beaten a long way. But finished fresh-looking after an educational-looking run overall. Will do better in time.
 
12th Nov The Ayr bumper

Kinneston ran two here, with both looking interesting for the future. On jockey bookings, it looked like more was expected from Takeyoutotheisland than Kingston Mail. It finished the other way round.

Lucinda's Coconut Man looked a potential good thing on breeding pre-race and won easily. Note here that Lucinda said he wouldn't have a hard race...which implies either this was weaker than it looked or the Coconut is above average. I'll take the latter.

Kingston came home 2nd at 33s, not totally surprising given he's related to the other useful Mail's - Elvis, Ginger, and Lester.

You wouldn't have thought beforehand that Takeyou (Mount Nelson) would be a bumper type, and would likely be more suited to hurdles. Beaten around 20 lengths, Kinneston Nick wasn't sure beforehand whether the ground would suit (heavy), and it won't be a surprise to see the 5 year old leave this run well behind at some point.
 
Are you coming to say hello on Saturday ? If so I'll buy you congratulations on your retirement drink.

And the simplest answer to the 'what are you going to do with your time brigade' is quite simply whatever the bloody hell you like.🙂
 
Been toying with the idea all week, Danny. The worry atm is I'd need to be driving down from the Midlands tomorrow night (in a LWB Crafter) and the forecast doesn't look amenable for driving. Hoping to make it still (think it's only about a 90 minute drive ), but I'll need to sit it out and see what really happens during the day tomorrow.

Have you all got a plan for meeting up? (ie where, when)
 
Well I'm driving down Saturday morning meeting Pawras at the digs. We are meeting jinny down at the course and anyone else who wants to say hello. So if you want to message through here or swop phone numbers with one of us you can do that however last year I couldn't get signal for the life of me whilst Pawras must of had his phone contract with Nasa as he was doing whatever he liked with his.
 
Going back a bit on a few I missed...

Unjeu Royal Chepstow 10th Oct This 2 mile novice is often well-contested (Fasol came home in 5th, not hard to see him in class 2s over the next couple of years). The first 4 should all do well, but won't be any big prices. Kim Bailey's Matty's Getaway probably would have won but for being hampered, and has since run a respectable 4th to Sober Glory. That might be a good indicator of how good Solar Glory really is. Kim's likely to place MG to win a handicap in a canter. French-bred Unjeu was hampered by a loose runner 3 out and couldn't recover, having looked like he might still be there at the finish. Well-liked in the Lacey yard, the cat is probably out anyway given he went off at a not totally dismissive 11-1. Had won a weak Southwell bumper FTO before pulled up (lost action, nothing untowards noted) in the Aintree Grade 3 April bumper. Maybe there will be some double-figure odds somewhere.

Land of Punt Love the name! Another well-liked Lacey runner. Went off 5-2 at Chepstow over 2 miles on the 5th Nov, but was expected to run green and did. Well beaten, enough that such short odds might not be seen for a while, especially if the Punterama needs a couple more runs before ready to show what he's got. Out of Westerner and a Shantou class 2 level mum. Two and a half to 3 miles?


Stung By Tariffs Carlisle 10th Nov 2 mile 1 soft ground maiden won easily by Mypaddydaddy. SBT went off at a realistic 150-1. This Daly/Scorpion youngster - on his first hurdles run after one go in a bumper - was never going to get close to the Skelton and Murphy runners first and second home. Beaten a long 17 lengths, will likely need a couple more runs before sluicing home in a good ground two and a half handicap.
 
17th Nov Leicester 3.10 A two-and-a-half class 3 maiden run on close to heavy.

Although only 6 runners, and 2 had zero chance, this was interesting.

At first look, the top two in the market had it between them, with the rest half a mile further than nowhere. But...

Kim Bailey's Island Bridge had a hard race at Cheltenham previously, in what looked a hot race. And Pauling's French-bred newcomer Kikour La (2nd fav) was seeing hurdles for the first time, admittedly after a good second in a point.

In the overall race context, might that leave it open for a surprise run from one of the others?

Step forward Mel Rowley's Our Bobby Dazzler, related to the yard's fairly useful My Bobby Dazzler. 100 on the machine about 20 mins before the race, and in to 50 just before the start, indicating someone else might be thinking along the same lines.

Still, Our Bobby was unlikely to have a chance of getting near both the two hotsters. The FC to get 2nd to one of them looked worth a go though, at 65 and 80 respectively.

And it looked on at 2 out. Kikour was still lobbing along in front after a sustained to and fro with Island.

Island was wilting and looked close to folding completely.

Our Bobby had been a bit keen, made a couple of mistakes on the way round, but moved up on the outside of both with a strong-looking run, looking good for 2nd, and the bigger of the two forecasts safely landed.

The Telescope runner couldn't sustain it, though, off the back of the keen effort and the errors. To his credit, Island kept going to finish 5 lengths 2nd to the Pauling winner, with 7 lengths back to the Edmunds horse who picked up the pieces to head Bobby into 4th.

So, two things...

1. Island had another hard-looking race. It won't be a surprise if Kim Bailey gives him a good rest now. But the way he battled on here suggests that - while this run looked mildly disappointing on the back of the Cheltenham effort a few weeks back - it probably just cemented the fact that Island is a more-than-useful performer. There will be a race down the line that he'll p!ss, and hopefully at backable odds because of this beating.

2. Our Bobby has something. With a bit more experience and less promising opponents, this run should go unnoticed enough to get some mildly fancy odds somewhere.
 
You need to put Soldier Reeves in your Maidens to follow list. That performance on Sunday was underplayed IMO. It was his first time over hurdles, he made a mistake at the third last that he was given time to recover from and he still won nicely. I thought it was a very good run.
 
Outsider said:
Gatineau Park won today 7/2
Click to expand...
Yep. 6.2 on the exchange, nice enough in the context of the race. The 'false' Skelton odds on shot made the price, if Skelton hadn't been winning everything recently, you'd have made the first 3 home not much bigger than 2-1 each.

There will be a lot of losers to come out of this thread, so fairly heartwarming to start off with a winner out of the first reappearance.
:)
 
jinnyj said:
You need to put Soldier Reeves in your Maidens to follow list. That performance on Sunday was underplayed IMO. It was his first time over hurdles, he made a mistake at the third last that he was given time to recover from and he still won nicely. I thought it was a very good run.
Click to expand...

Yeah it was clearly a strong performance. Although I fear it won't go under the radar any time soon.

There's a chance the Soldier won it on class in spite of it only being 2 miles. I'm thinking 2 back-to-back Coral Cups in the next few years! We should get a reasonable price in those, especially when/if Skelton plays the game he plays so 'well'.
 
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12.35 Warwick 20th Nov

A strong-looking 2 mile maiden. The expensive Crystal Ocean winner - Cristal D'Estruval - was well fancied by Harry Derham.

But the one that looked 'pre-race interesting' for the future to me was the 200-1 shot Kerry Lee trained Ercall Fox - a Telescope-Kings Theatre 4YO out of a mum that didn't do a lot. Ran well enough in 5th, up with the leaders till couldn't hang on to them from 2 out - a run which suggests there might be something to be had in future weaker races, if/when allowed to go off at proper prices.

Emma Lavelle's Malinas point and bumper-winning runner - Loaded and Locked - seemed sure to want further than this 2 miles. Beaten around 10 lengths into 4th, nothing seen here means he can't win some races over two and a half plus (and, likely, fences).


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1.00 Wincanton 20th Nov

I've seen several Adaay's run well over hurdles, so Stuart Kittow's Adaay Dancing seemed worth watching here. Moved up from the back towards the latter quarter of the race, threatening at one point to finish a good 2nd. Realistically, was certainly never going to get near St Irene (who I believe the stable think they've got a promising one for the final of this series), and very likely to struggle against Border Gem, too.

Not hard to see Adaay Dancing winning a Class 4/5 handicap, potentially at nice odds.
 
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2.32 Thurles 27th Nov

Won by a Mullins hotpot as easily as expected.

One of the big-enough outsiders took the eye pre-race as a potential improver for the future, going well enough that a big price win might be on the cards later in the season (or next)...

Philip Rothwell ran two, with the one looking to be favoured on jockey bookings coming home 4th. But it was the other one - a Crystal Ocean runner named Fairlander - that looked interesting. Beaten a long way in 6th, there was enough on display to suggest the 4YO will be up to a handicap further on. Might well go off totally unfancied somewhere.

*****

Reteti (mentioned previously) got nowhere near in the 2 mile goodish ground Lingfield class 4 novice, as could be expected. Perfect!! Remains on course for a soft ground handicap, maybe two-and-a half.

Sue Smith's Mad Mag (mentioned previously) ran a few days ago, in a soft-ground Wetherby two miler. Logically, was never going to be competitive. Sadly, got a little too close (perhaps), coming home a 10 length 3rd of 5 but close enough to suggest she's a potential semi-mortgage job when getting a suitable distance (if allowed to go off big enough to offset the risk, and ofc dependent on the race context).

David Pipe's Allstitchedup ran in an interesting 4 runner Ffos Las maiden on 19th Nov. Was likely never going to get near to Jamie Snowden's well-touted Legendary Luke (Soldier Of Fortune/Overbury out of an unraced Mum, and likely to be running in high-class handicaps and possibly graded races for the coming years) and the eventual Murphy runner-up. But Stitched went well enough till running out of steam at the end and finishing 4th of 4. Could well be a winner waiting to happen in a handicap over a distance that might test many of his opponents.
 
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28th Nov

Have to give a mention here to an old warrior. Don't you love it when they come back...

Old Romeo Brown finally won another race. Sue Smith's persistence rewarded. 10.2 ten minutes before the race, I nearly wet myself. Galloped the 3 rivals silly from the front, just like the old days. Some may remember he did (some of) us a 50-1 favour a few years back in a competitive handicap, front-rank throughout and battled like his life depended on it when headed at the last.

Clearly, 3 miles now suits best. Must have good ground, and can win again for one final hurrah if getting it again.

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The Newbury maiden 12.15

No surprises around who finished 1st and 2nd here. Two destined for better things.

Seamus Mullins West Hill Verde running 3rd was not the surprise it might have been - based on a close-up run in a Kempton class 3 bumper back in 2024. Lightly raced, but this run will have likely wrecked any chances of a big odds win.

Harry Derham's Park Talk led most of the way, jumped the last in 3rd and wilted from there. He may be the one to take out for a nice handicap somewhere in future.
 
Thought Nice One Eric ran ok for a long way on his hurdling debut. This was quite a deep race to throw him in first time but the yard doesn't shy away from that and I'd expect him to finish a lot closer next time.
 
Kim Bailey's had yet another two winners today, neither at properly backable odds in the contexts of the two races. Though, arguably, Matty's Getaway shouldn't have been left totally alone on the Exchange in what was effectively a 3-horse race. I'd say that was a mistake, Chaumi! But it does indicate he's got strength in depth in the hurdling youngsters and the novice chase divisions. May pay to keep an eye on any of his bigger guns throughout the season.
 
jinnyj said:
Chaumi - I stuck Starzand in as my Dark Horse on the strength of that win and the seemingly very positive response from connections after the race. I then collared Johnson at Newton Abbot and he was very positive about the horse. So I was surprised to see Philip implying that Sober Glory was the best in their yard as Johnson seemed to be in the other camp.
Click to expand...
I was looking at some form,can't remember now what I was looking for,but it lead to me coming across Sober glory and I think he could be very good.
3 out of its 4 wins he beat a Skelton horse into 2nd.
 

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