Obama out?

LUKE said:
I pay very little attention to the American political scene but I would be surprised if it didn't go something like this Republicans select their man -Obama let's rip-it's no contest from an early stage and Paddy
Power pay out before the voting starts.
What are the statistics on presidents getting re-elected.
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I love the way you think Luke but this is a far busier market than you would expect.
 
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I dont have enough information to talk about the republican candidates but
Obama so far is the most pathetic american president since Carter and has a very good chance to beat Jimmy.
 
sunybay said:
I dont have enough information to talk about the republican candidates but
Obama so far is the most pathetic american president since Carter and has a very good chance to beat Jimmy.
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Yep.

He's clearly been sitting on his arse in the Oval Office smoking snouts, whilst someone else got on with the job of reforming health-care, extricating the States from Iraq, killing Bin Laden and patching up the train-wreck of an economy he inherited.

Jeezus.
 
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No

I reckon few republicans and not many americans believe the Obama is unbeatable. His profile is a lot stronger over here and that is to a great extent based on what he is perceived to be rather than his actual results.
 
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Euronymous said:
Isn't the best GOP candidate lying in wait for the nomination in 2016, Obama being pretty unbeatable?
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No incumbent is unbeatable as long as the health of the economy is in question. The GOP are desperate to beat him, but they've tacked so far to the right that they're an absolute basket-case. Romney will get the nomination because (despite?) he's the only one running who isn't certifiably crazy (Huntsman excepted, but he'll be out of it unless he pulls a surprise to come second in New Hampshire), and his party and their base will have to get behind him despite being deeply suspicious of his credentials.
 
Euronymous said:
Isn't the best GOP candidate lying in wait for the nomination in 2016, Obama being pretty unbeatable?
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Worth emphasising that, whilst Obama is certainly a worthy favourite (I'd rather be a backer than a layer at 4/5 for sure), he cannot be historically characterised as a "strong incumbent", much less as unbeatable; his strength, such as it is, is largely down to the perception of a weak Republican challenger.

Historically, Obama is in a precarious position; to suggest otherwise for any president given an unemployment rate north of 8% (though improving, as yesterday's report confirmed) would be absurd.

Edit: beaten by Gareth yet again!
 
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Perry after saying he would send American troops back into Iraq during the NH debate; those of us (myself included...) who saw Perry as a legitimate threat during the summer bury their head's further in the sand!

Remarkable how they haven't laid a glove on Romney. Gingrich is making a strong South Carolina argument; Santorum looks a seriously weak debater.
 
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Just to **** off any anti-american sneerers, Gringrich is holding a good lead in SC on the basis of what was apparently a very strong debating performance, whilst the electorate, in this conservative state, seemingly not concerned about his "morals"

Hes a sharp guy, thats for sure and i did read that hes the candidate that Obama fears most. He blunders sometimes, but is a streetfighter who will give him a tough time

Interesting
 
Jeez, some choice: Mitt or Newt? At least Barack has a certain shouty, militant sound, which I'd have thought would've appealed to a particular segment of America! And, Clivex, what chance does the outside world have if even you can't spell Newt's last name? Gingrich, dearest. It sounds like something out of a Tolkien novel - "then, Gingrich, the leader of the rebellious newts, turned and hissed... ".
 
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Agree that Gingrich adds an interesting dimension. It won't make a jot of a difference to the outcome though.

Newt has merely shown how waffer-theen Romney's support really is, and is hugely vulnerable himself following his wife's allegations. Whether those allegations are true or not is pretty immaterial - it's a gaping-wound as far as a Presidential campaign is concerned, and Obama's team will be only to happy to poke it with sticks.

With an economy which is showing signs of turning around, Obama's only real area of vulnerability seems to be less of an issue. He is stuck-on for re-election.
 
Obama a mover today. Luke, is it time to start slipping €50 @ 4/6 every week with Powers?
 
LUKE said:
I know I am being incredibly simplistic about it but the 1.81 that I saw on Obama last night would be my nap of the year.
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BrianH sent me an email this morning to say he had gone in hard at 4/5.
 
and is hugely vulnerable himself following his wife's allegations
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Really? Didnt seem to think so in SC did they? And if they were going to anywhere it would be there

I dont think Newt will eventually win presidency. He just somehow isnt a president is he? Obama is lucky with his opponents
 
clivex said:
Really? Didnt seem to think so in SC did they? And if they were going to anywhere it would be there
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Not if they were a shower of hypocritical gits, it wouldn't. I'm often left with the sensation that morality is for others to observe, when I hear certain of the Republican/Christian Right constituency spouting off. I also think there is an 'Omaba-Out-At-All-Costs" mood within a large part of the Republican caucus, and the fact that Newt won SC is more a reflection of how flimsy Romney's support is.


I dont think Newt will eventually win presidency. He just somehow isnt a president is he? Obama is lucky with his opponents
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I'm not entirely convinced he'll win the Republican nomination, to be honest, but there's no doubt that his campaign now has some momentum. He lacks credibility for me, as he's always come across as a 'small' man of Government, rather than an obvious candidate to lead the lead "the most powerful nation on Earth". A cosy Congress lifer, rather than the figurehead of the West.

Obama has made his own luck, in my view. His achievements might be belittled by some; but they are more substantial than is normal for a first-termer (Reagan possibly an exception). Whether one agrees with the policy is irrelevant, but he has made substanital progress in healthcare reform, has extricated his country from a war, taken down Bin Laden, and managed to get a crippled economy back on some sort of reasonably stable footing.

There's actually not an awful lot to complain about even if you are of a more conservative opinion; other than complain about "Big Government" and the health care bill. These are largely philosophical differences, and I think the US electorate may be moving towards a less ideological approach to their political decisions. I think that pragmatism will be the prevailing mood, and that Obama will not be judged harshly by the voters; not least because of the state of the economy he inherited.

He has played a bad hand quite deftly, imo.
 
I think too many are looking at the presidency through european eyes. Anyone who thinks long odds on should be the right price might care to look at some polls. Some facts perhaps? Americans dont rate him and perhaps rightly so. He's been pretty uninspired to many eyes. The odds are short enough.
 
He lacks credibility for me, as he's always come across as a 'small' man of Government, rather than an obvious candidate to lead the lead "the most powerful nation on Earth". A cosy Congress lifer, rather than the figurehead of the West.
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I know what you mean to some extent. Is he presidential? hmmm

Obama has probably done as much as he could in many ways, but i just get the feeling that he hasnt engaged the electorate in the manner of CInton Or Reagan.
 
Serves Obama right for living up to the traditional American Way of Life, doesn't it? Happily married with two healthy kids, slim, reasonably attractive and without a stain on his character, but he's accused of not being exciting enough. I think he's got to do better than go to it with one of his interns, and it's too late for Hollywood, even at the Class 4 levels of Reagan's efforts. So, what can he do? Maybe skateboarding isn't too late in the day, or maybe a guest appearance in Desperate Housewives, where Bree helps him and the family when his presidential entourage breaks down... he admires her home-baked cookies and, next thing you know, there's a shot of him at home, in a fresh white pinny, knocking up a batch of chocolate chips. In tune with the masses? I think so!
 
Grasshopper said:
Newt has merely shown how waffer-theen Romney's support really is, and is hugely vulnerable himself following his wife's allegations. Whether those allegations are true or not is pretty immaterial - it's a gaping-wound as far as a Presidential campaign is concerned, and Obama's team will be only to happy to poke it with sticks.
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Probably true, though these allegations aren't exactly new news are they?

Gingrich's campaign is pretty remarkable in many ways; he actually seems to have eschewed the opinion of the usual barrage of strategists and seems to be calling the shots himself on a day-by-day basis. While that might work in South Carolina or in a primary, it makes establishing a stable message or narrative exceedingly difficult (especially given Gingrich's personality) and is completely unsustainable with regards to a general.

For an exceptionally good operation, Romney and his team have done a surprisingly bad job explaining the whole Bain Capital furore, as well as handling the calls for him to release his tax returns. If he can't make that issue a net positive (which is fundamental to his argument) he has absolutely no chance of winning the nomination.
 
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But thats admirable too isnt it Trackside and might not be lost on voters who may well be sick of rather too slick candidates? I dont agree with a lot of Newts views, but you have to take your hat off to him if that is the case. he has an ego the size of the albert hall but the brains to match it would seem.

And hes a formidable debater which wasnt lost on SC by the sounds of it. Didnt Obama duck head to head debates last time around?

The tax thing could kill Romney
 
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There's no doubt about Gingrich's hypocrisy when criticising Clinton at the same time as being married and boffing the woman who is now Wife No.3. You might well say that's in the past, but a liar is still a liar, and he can hardly stand for good ole family values.
 
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