One To Oppose At The Festival

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Top of my list is Tell Massini. Could be completely wrong (again) but the horse does not convince me. Beat up a rogue and a National winner and not all that convincingly last time at Cheltenham.

His run prior to that reads well but that was early season novice form that I would like to see confirmed before taking 4/1 or 9/2. I do not like horses coming into these type of races with the sort of break he is coming off. Is it planned or was there an injury/setback?

Looking at the opposition there are plenty of unexposed sorts in the race and horses that should relish the step up in trip.
 
Sizing Europe will he have the attention to jump as well and see it through to the end when surrounded by the likes of Osana, RT, CCB, Somersby & Co?
 
Maybe he will but he has had the easy lead in three six runner races and not touched a twig yet, so is it not possible that if he does make an error the Arkle maybe the one, and if he does mess one up I have big doubts he has the attitude (maybe wrong word) to get back into it... all if's of course Granger.
 
Galileo said:
Top of my list is Tell Massini. Could be completely wrong (again) but the horse does not convince me. Beat up a rogue and a National winner and not all that convincingly last time at Cheltenham.

His run prior to that reads well but that was early season novice form that I would like to see confirmed before taking 4/1 or 9/2. I do not like horses coming into these type of races with the sort of break he is coming off. Is it planned or was there an injury/setback?

Looking at the opposition there are plenty of unexposed sorts in the race and horses that should relish the step up in trip.
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Tell Massini is my Festival banker - always the plan to have three runs and the only thing that can beat him is fastish ground and/or Tom George's incompetence. The Hyde Hurdle which he won looks rock solid with Reve De Sivola and Bobby Ewing franking the form and that race has been the key to the Albert Bartlett in previous years. Kennel Hill might be a dog now but was putting his best foot forward when 2nd to TM - remember The Minack and Bygones Of Brid were well beaten and have boosted the form too.
 
Tout Seul said:
I agree with Captain CB. Somersby is my biggest bet for the meeting
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Do you not think he has a very similar profile to Racing Demon rather than Best Mate? I would have thought the front two/three/four in the Champion Hurdle need serious opposing simply on the basis the form of the race has more holes in it than a Friday night in Soho.
 
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rorydelargy said:
Tell Massini is my Festival banker - always the plan to have three runs and the only thing that can beat him is fastish ground and/or Tom George's incompetence. The Hyde Hurdle which he won looks rock solid with Reve De Sivola and Bobby Ewing franking the form and that race has been the key to the Albert Bartlett in previous years. Kennel Hill might be a dog now but was putting his best foot forward when 2nd to TM - remember The Minack and Bygones Of Brid were well beaten and have boosted the form too.
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I'm loathe to comment given that I haven't actually seen the Hyde hurdle to my shame but on the bare form an 8 1/2 length beating of Bertie's Dream in recipt of 7lbs does not constitute "rock solid form."

That said, I've always thought a decent test of stamina would bring out the best in the Gilligan horse so perhaps I am underestimating him given that the Cheltenham race should have suit him to a tee. I have seen the last race, the form of which I wouldn't put a great deal of faith in due to the gallop. I certainly wouldn't be using The Minack' run that day as proof of it' strength either.

I'm not tuned in enough yet to give a definitive judgement on either of the staying novice hurdles ~ just my first impressions.

As for the original question, 4/1 about Alaivan is an absolutely farcical price on what he has achieved to date.
 
Galileo said:
Top of my list is Tell Massini. Could be completely wrong (again) but the horse does not convince me. Beat up a rogue and a National winner and not all that convincingly last time at Cheltenham.

His run prior to that reads well but that was early season novice form that I would like to see confirmed before taking 4/1 or 9/2. I do not like horses coming into these type of races with the sort of break he is coming off. Is it planned or was there an injury/setback?

Looking at the opposition there are plenty of unexposed sorts in the race and horses that should relish the step up in trip.
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I wouldn't disagree with that. Trainer would put me off too.
 
trackside528 said:
As for the original question, 4/1 about Alaivan is an absolutely farcical price on what he has achieved to date.
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Maybe not 4/1, but to me he's the most likely winner. He much more deserves to be favourite than Mille Chief, and was impressive to me the last day.
 
I think normal good to soft ground would be ideal - i wouldn't imagine the (at least) slightly quicker ground at Cheltenham would be a problem. Hard to see him out of the frame though.
 
Even though Carlito Brigante cantered all over him? People are too quick to write off that form imho.
 
Hamm said:
Read Simon Rowlands blog on Betfair for an interesting piece on that race.
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I've read it and it's very interesting, but it would hold more water if Carlito Brigante was a much shorter price than Alaivan, which he should be on a literal reading of the form. The market has already forgiven Alaivan.
 
rorydelargy said:
He has always been a shorter price than Carlito Brigante with some firms, even after losing to him at Christmas.
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Not with all the bookmakers...Carlito B was definitely shorter (or the same price) then Alaivan with a few bookmakers. Ladbrokes have been keen to keep the O'Grady horse on their side though.

The Leopardstown form has far too many holes in it - Alaivan beat Leblon with his head in his chest on his debut by 15 lengths but that rival finished closer and with Alaivan all out at Leopardstown. Alaivan simply did too much that day from way too far out.
 
Just to go back to Tell Massini (oops!), and apologies for labouring a point. He isn't particularly flashy and he isn't the best novice in training, but anyone who wants to oppose him at 4/1 needs to be aware of how good his form is in black and white and how comparitively weak the Albert Bartlett is. Horses with ratings in the 120s have regularly been competitive in the race and the likes of Black Jack Ketchum and Wichita Lineman came into the race with ratings in the high 140s. I believe the highest rating ever was a slightly dubious 155 given to Flight Leader after he beat Temoin and The French Furze at the New Year's Day fixture. Pride Of Dulcote was also rated 155 last year, but I believe those were the only two horses rated over 151 since the race was instituted.

What rating should Tell Massini have? Last time out he didn't look that impressive but beat Kennel Hill (now rated 140) by 2 1/2l giving him 7lb, Mon Mome (now rated 134) by 10 1/2l giving him 7lb, Lord Generous (now rated 135) 13 3/4l giving him 3lb and Bygones Of Brid (now rated 136) by 16 3/4l at levels; for information only (!!) The Minack (now rated 141) was beaten 17 1/2l and getting 3lb. The handicapper allotted Tell Massini a rating of 145 based on that but has now revised it upwards to 153.

I know it's easy to crab the form, or suggest that the ratings given to the others are too high based on the race being overrated, but a look through the form book will show that Mon Mome was actually dropped by the assessor after this, while Kennel Hill got his lofty rating for his excellent Challow Hurdle run (before he went totally doggy!), Lord Generous was raised for his defeat of Chamirey which has been franked twice since and Bygones Of Brid has been raised for beating Washington Irving (and proved that no fluke with a decent second to Ranjobaie subsequently). I'm more than happy to ignore the Minack!

The point is that this really really is rock solid form in the context of the Albert Bartlett and the 4/1 is a reasonable price which will contract further unless we get a protracted dry spell. Far be it from me to tell you guys what you should be laying, but if you must take him on, wait until he's trading at 2/1!!

I'd much rather be laying something which has looked flashy while beating trees, and there will be a few of those in two weeks.
 
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Galileo said:
The Leopardstown form has far too many holes in it - Alaivan beat Leblon with his head in his chest on his debut by 15 lengths but that rival finished closer and with Alaivan all out at Leopardstown. Alaivan simply did too much that day from way too far out.
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I don't disagree with that, merely with whether there is any value in Alaivan. Carlito Brigante absolutely cruised past him to win by eleven lengths and would have won even further had be been asked. Alaivan is certainly better than the form, but is he fifteen lengths or more better? The race he won next time was much weaker that the one won by Carlito Brigante and yet Alaivan has shortened more.
 
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