Just to go back to Massini's Maguire, and apologies for labouring a point. He isn't particularly flashy and he isn't the best novice in training, but anyone who wants to oppose him at 4/1 needs to be aware of how good his form is in black and white and how comparitively weak the Albert Bartlett is. Horses with ratings in the 120s have regularly been competitive in the race and the likes of Black Jack Ketchum and Wichita Lineman came into the race with ratings in the high 140s. I believe the highest rating ever was a slightly dubious 155 given to Flight Leader after he beat Temoin and The French Furze at the New Year's Day fixture. Pride Of Dulcote was also rated 155 last year, but I believe those were the only two horses rated over 151 since the race was instituted.
What rating should Tell Massini have? Last time out he didn't look that impressive but beat Kennel Hill (now rated 140) by 2 1/2l giving him 7lb, Mon Mome (now rated 134) by 10 1/2l giving him 7lb, Lord Generous (now rated 135) 13 3/4l giving him 3lb and Bygones Of Brid (now rated 136) by 16 3/4l at levels; for information only (!!) The Minack (now rated 141) was beaten 17 1/2l and getting 3lb. The handicapper allotted Tell Massini a rating of 145 based on that but has now revised it upwards to 153.
I know it's easy to crab the form, or suggest that the ratings given to the others are too high based on the race being overrated, but a look through the form book will show that Mon Mome was actually dropped by the assessor after this, while Kennel Hill got his lofty rating for his excellent Challow Hurdle run (before he went totally doggy!), Lord Generous was raised for his defeat of Chamirey which has been franked twice since and Bygones Of Brid has been raised for beating Washington Irving (and proved that no fluke with a decent second to Ranjobaie subsequently). I'm more than happy to ignore the Minack!
The point is that this really really is rock solid form in the context of the Albert Bartlett and the 4/1 is a reasonable price which will contract further unless we get a protracted dry spell. Far be it from me to tell you guys what you should be laying, but if you must take him on, wait until he's trading at 2/1!!
I'd much rather be laying something which has looked flashy while beating trees, and there will be a few of those in two weeks.