Open Meeting - Your Best Bets

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Aragorn

At the Start
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Apr 16, 2009
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Outside of the Paddy Power Gold Cup what are everyone's best bets for the meeting as a whole.

My two and explanations are detailed below:

Knockara Beau - Friday 4.05

I'm not convinced by Ashkazar. He beats average horses and has plenty of ability but I'm not convinced by his attitude or his debut run. Aigle d'or has it all to prove whereas this horse keeps improving and the chase he won at Carlisle was a hot race even if he was in receipt of 16lb (He beat a couple of grade 1 winners). Should get a working mans price with Ashkazar in there and his unfashionable trainer.

Lidar - Sunday Bumper

Alan King could not speak highly enough of this horse and he was unlucky not to win the Aintree Bumper at the end of last season. It's a competitive field with some unexposed sorts but I think this fella could end up winning the supreme novices and on that basis i'll be either getting out of trouble or topping up my winnings with him come sunday.
 
James De Vassey in the Greatwood.

Nice performance in the race at Chepstow that (I think) Crack Away Jack won last year and I kind of picked Nick Williams as my NH trainer to follow last year as I felt that Ferdy was getting a bit long in the tooth.

Well Chief in the Connaught.

Not a huge fan of Master Minded and with the ground on the soft side I think he'll struggle to give that weight away. Not totally sure whether a bet on Well Chief is the way to go - an outright lay may be a better option.
 
Nothing stands out for me, though I will very likely back Erzen if he goes for Henderson in Sunday's 0-135 handicap hurdle.

I think Lidar is a soft target, myself. Don't think his Aintree Bumper run is much cop, to be honest.
 
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I like Some Present in the novice hurdle tomorrow...put a line through his last run which Sweeps Hill won, they walked most of it. Also i'll have the customary punt on Garde Champatre in the cross country and I also like Nina's chances in the 1st on My Lord Oscar.
 
I'm very interested in Loosen My Load. Only worry is that he looks like a chaser biding his time over the smaller obstacles. i.e. there may be a more fluent hurdler in the field. However, Loosen My Load is a beast of a horse and may just devour the hurdles...
 
9/2 about Loosen My Load did stand out when I glanced through the card alright. Ran an absolute stormer to finish second to Foster's Cross (decent animal on good ground) over 2m on fast ground at Tipperary (made a fairly serious mistake at the second last as well). Will probably be better over further in time, but 2m on likely soft ground at Cheltenham is a different ball game completely to 2m on fast ground at Tipperary.

Some Present is undoubtedly a promising horse and was unsuited by the farce of a gallop they went at Punchestown, but I actually rate the Tipperary form marginally stronger. Looked a shade awkward that day though as well. Price discrepancy between the two looks far too big at those prices.

See William Hogarth runs as well; can we expect the avatar to make a return, Gal? :p
 
Narrowing the Field said:
I'm very interested in Loosen My Load. Only worry is that he looks like a chaser biding his time over the smaller obstacles. i.e. there may be a more fluent hurdler in the field. However, Loosen My Load is a beast of a horse and may just devour the hurdles...
Click to expand...

Missed this while I was typing, Narrowing the Field.

He did make a pretty serious blunder two out at Tipperary last time, but his hurdling on the whole has been very fluent thusfar.

Certainly looks and hurdles like a chaser though, as you say. Without wanting to tempt fate, the way he jumps reminds me a lot of Sizing Europe in his prime.

Welcome to the forum BTW!
 
Thanks trackside528

I see what you mean with the comparison to Sizing Europe. I know he has only started hurdling but it will be interesting when he jumps fences next year...
 
Was just going to ask you lot about Loosen My Load. That last run looks worth much much more than what Some Present achieved last time. Okay he has the track bumper form. But Loosen My Loads Galway form isn't far below it I don't think. The 2 prices look well out of line.
 
Read the thread title and thought no one would pick my best bet... and you know what's coming... first horse mentioned is the one:

Knockara Beau in the 4.05 tomorrow

For exactly the same reasons as Aragorn - loved his Carlisle run, jumped beautifully for only his 2nd chase, likes the ground, unfashionable trainer hopefully = bigger price

Easy

 
If Alan Jones would care to take the handbrake off Qhilimar in the amateur riders handicap chase tomorrow then he'd have a cracking chance off a light-weight. Fingers crossed for the rain and the soft ground, he has good form at the Paris tracks in France and will appreciate the trip and he won a decent handicap chase run in a quick time in Feb, in one of his subsequent starts he was just behind a subsequent G3 H'cap winner (admittedly receiving lumps of weight) but off a fly weight and ridden by a decent looking amateur I think he could go close.
 
I really like Some Present; he caught my eye in the paddock at the Festival last year. However Sleepy Hollow is a very interesting runner indeed.
 
Warne's Way if he's declared later today for tomorrow. Unfortunate to bump in to a well handicapped Paul Nicholls horse last year. Before that was second to Lough Derg. He's only six and showed his well being with a win at Newbury in a flat handicap a couple of weeks ago. I suppose it would be a sweet little tonic for Brendan Powell who I've read is not too well at present.
 
After 9mm of ovenight rain, leaving the Old Course for the chase and hurdle contests good to soft, andthe Cross Country course good.
 
Sleepy Hollow reminds me of Audley Harrison. All the physical attributes to achieve a damn site more than what he has if he had a bit of bottle.
 
Can anyone tell me why French Opera is off 138, and wasn't raised for finishing 3rd in the Grand Annual, nor his beginners chase victory at the end of October? I really like Song of Songs, but the Henderson horse looks too well handicapped.
 
Looks like the Grand Annual was rated through him, and that beating a 115-rated horse 10 lengths and a 107-rated horses 11 lengths in the Beginner's Chase didn't justify him being raised.
 
I see your point, but as it's such a competitive handicap (in theory) you usually would think those finishing at the head of affairs would be raised more than in other races.
 
Razor Royale would have a chance in the first today if conditions prive to be very testing - has some decent course form and could go well. I know that Never So Blue is fancied and I'd also fear the Pipe favourite, but at 16/1+ a small bet on RR will be forthcoming.
 
Knockara Beau looks a good thing today having beaten killyglen(getting plenty of weight admittly) going right handed i think he is better going left handed and tends to jump that way also his jumping held up under pressure yet to see ashkazar jumping under pressure bit of cut in ground may sap his stamina

Fancy northern allience for the paddy power only up 7lbs for win at listowel and has been protecting his chase mark by mixing hurdling and chasing wont mind the drop of rain either
 
My Lord Oscar maybe doesn't look the most generously handicapped in the first race, but a combination of best jockey and soft ground over this trip should enable him to get home at or near the front. Hopefully the ground will be soft enough.
 
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