Our New Prime Minster

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All seen the latest polls? Labour up seven percentage points to 39%, a clear four point lead over the Conservatives and its first lead in an ICM poll since March 2006. If repeated at a general election such a lead would see Labour increase its majority.
 
My school motto was (and is) Cor numinis fons luminis which means the heart of the divine (God) is the fount of light. Good old Jesuits.
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Brian, I heard Ignatious Loyola loved the swish of the cane. Any truth in that?
 
There were no canes. What there were, however, were things called ferulas (that should probably be ferulae). The ferula was whale bone covered in leather and was administered on the hands. As punishment offenders (or, in my case, perfectly innocent victims of mistaken identity) would be ordered to "get four" or "get six". For more serious offences nine was the punishment while in extreme cases the punishment would be twelve, twice six on two hands, but often administered on separate days on account of the hand becoming numb. Adding psychological to corporal punishment, in what some might think true Jesuitical style, offenders were given forty-eight hours to decide when (at which break) they would receive their ferula otherwise additional punishment was liable to be added. Three or four masters were approved to dish it out and one had to report to their studies. Corporal punishment ended in the early 1990s, far too late for me.
 
Headline news in the FT today - Gordon slashed the capital budget of the NHS - nb IN ENGLAND ONLY - by a third on his last day at he Treasury - so the news got lost in the general syrup of Blair/Brown luvviedom. Typical. This will affect in particular the NHS building and renovations budget. The NHS budgets of Wales and Scotland are not affected.

Gordon claimed on the day this was sneaked through that the NHS will be his "immediate priority" [cue hollow laughter].

I'm afraid he probably will win the next election, for the reasons stated by Brian esp the massively unfair and undemocratic distribution of votes; though I doubt many pensioners will vote for him.

Appointing Hilary Benn, a lifetime Londoner and lifetime vegetarian who supports the full agenda of 'Animal Rights', as the new Minister for Rural Affairs, is a real slap in the face to those living in the country.

I personally found the backslapping etc of the changeover and Blair's 'world farewell tour' quite nauseating, whilst 7 young people died of violence on the streets of London in the last 6 weeks, hospital deaths from MRSA spiral out of control, and our troops are still dying in Labour's wars largely through lack of proper equipment. This is thanks largely to Gordon, who has continually sqeezed the Defence budget over the last 10 years whilst Tony sent troops off fight other people's wars. Gordon has even kept Blair's clown of a Defence Minister, presumably because he's a cipher and won't stand up for the armed services. I despair.
 
Originally posted by BrianH+Jun 30 2007, 05:45 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (BrianH @ Jun 30 2007, 05:45 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'><!--QuoteBegin-betsmate@Jun 30 2007, 02:26 PM
Honeymoon period.
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Oh ye of little faith. I'll happily take some more at the same price if it's on offer?[/b][/quote]
Not from me Brian, I see nothing wrong with the price you took.

I would wager that Labour will fail to maintain that lead in the opinion polls over the coming months though.
 
Originally posted by Headstrong@Jun 30 2007, 08:18 PM
Headline news in the FT today - Gordon slashed the capital budget of the NHS - nb IN ENGLAND ONLY - by a third on his last day at he Treasury.
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This is a "yes but" comment. The FT also reports that the reduction in capital expenditure from £6.2bn to £4.2bn was accompanied by a Treasury statement that rather than an outright cut it was a postponement of expenditure and that the £2bn will be reallocated over three years from 2008 to 2009. The report also reminds FT readers that the NHS revenue expenditure announced in the last budget was the biggest cash increase ever.

As far as I know we don't have a political party whose manifesto includes what I believe to be the way that the NHS should change - to become independent in the way that the Bank of England did, with civil servants replaced by top people from industry and commerce with excellent management skills. In the absence of that solution it is difficult to see any other party in power being more generous in allocating funds to the NHS than the current one.
 
I will wait until October when the bounce factor will be out of the equation and the polls will have had time to assess Gordon.

Like a few others I am hoping the much rumoured defection by a Tory MP to Lab comes true. Am on at 5-1.

I also have 10-1 that Labour will lose a by-election in the WH what will happen first market. It's now 3-1..and still worth a punt.
 
History suggests that the opposition needs to have been consistently 6pts ahead of a government and certainly 12 months before an election
 
I agree Brian that the only hope for the NHS is to take it 'out of politics' in the sense you suggest. It needs professional management who understand medicine and are not constantly trying in the first instance to hit targets for political rather than public health reasons

The fact remains that most of the increase in health spending over the last 10 years has gone on wage inflation; and that the current 'postponement', if you like to phrase it in that way, doesn't apply to Wales or Scotland. Health spending, esp capital expenditure, has been allocated on a party partisan basis [notably by Patricia Hewitt] for some while anyway, even within England
 
An ICM poll in tomorrow's Sunday Telegraph puts Labour on 40 per cent, ahead of the Tories on 33 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats trailing on 19 per cent.
 
Originally posted by betsmate+Jul 1 2007, 11:13 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (betsmate @ Jul 1 2007, 11:13 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'>
Originally posted by BrianH@Jun 30 2007, 05:45 PM
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@Jun 30 2007, 02:26 PM
Honeymoon period.
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Oh ye of little faith. I'll happily take some more at the same price if it's on offer?
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Not from me Brian, I see nothing wrong with the price you took.

I would wager that Labour will fail to maintain that lead in the opinion polls over the coming months though. [/b][/quote]
One year on.
 
One of the benefits of working in a city so steeped in academic tradition is that you are constantly bumping into very clever folks. I reminded of someone who took an astute 66/1 a few years ago that David Milliband will be Prime Minister by 2016. She was working on a one term conservative administration starting in 2010.

Although the Labour party has a rich tradition of in fighting, they aren't quite as brutal at replacing their leaders or sitting Prime Ministers as the Tories. Suffice to say the machinations of Mr Milliband today are starting to look as if she could be collecting within a month. It reminds me of how the Tories replaced IDS as they collectively came to realise that the incumbent couldn't win them an election, and a good percentage of them would be out of work.

I'm also reminded of Michael Heseltines "I can not conceive of any conditions in which I would seek"..... etc

Me thinkz its all over
 
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