Pace filtering

EC1

EC1

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May 7, 2007
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late 1960's early 70's
I've been interested in this for a long time as I think sometimes its more important than a horse getting its ground.

Predicting the pace doesn't always work out..jockeys don't always ride a horse as its generally been ridden before..so its no exact science..but name me one that is in the game

Some courses are better than others..Chester is bloody deadly..the pace collapse there is imo rarer than anywhere else. But..even though it doesn't work there..that is an angle in itself..note horses in those rare pace collapse races that manage to stay with the lead the longest..they really must have run well above themselves..other front runners in the race will usually be well beat.

I'd like to know how many people here look at this aspect and maybe check a few races out and discuss maybe before they are ran.

I'd like to use the thread to put a pace filter initially of some selected races first..then maybe use other elimination filters for those favoured by the pace.

The 4.10 at Epsom today looks a really good starting point. First its an apprentice race..they tend to go for it a bit in these anyway. Second there many on pace horses..some you could say are must lead horses.

There are now 13 runners in the race

Memory lane - is near on guaranteed front runner
Dubai Glory - favours the lead
Missionaire - guaranteed to want the lead
Megalal - wants the lead really bad

after that i'd be wanting those chasing it to be ruled out..they also will get taken out of their comfort zone

then throw another couple of filters over the race and we should have the winner:)

anyone want to give a view on this at all?
 
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I've not had a look at the race properly yet..but to read pace signatures i use a couple of rules..i tend to look at the last 5 races for each horse..in case a change has occured in run style..usuallly the current run style is more likely to be adopted imo...secondly i note the distance the style is done at..a horse stepping up is likely to change from being an on pacer to being help up for example.

Also - I check for a horse blinkered or visored for the first time..will tend to also run near the front..again that adds to pace pressure and hopefully pace collapse...there are none today..shouldn't really need them in this anyway

so starting with top hoss for one

The Bells O Peover - last 5 runs on flat have been over 12f or more and is usually close to whatever pace occurs..I don't like this one today in this pace make up.

so thats the fav beat for a start ;)
 
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Gunslinger - This stays further and will be held up
Winning Spark - This will be held up
Shesha Bear - This will be held up
Choral festival - Held Up
Epsom Salts - Held up
SoundByte - held up
Super Duplex - held up
Beat Route - closer to leaders than the above
 
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gonna leave Beat Route..think will be out of comfort zone...so those left are

Gunslinger - looks weighted up to best - may need further even in a pace collapse and has never won above grade 5....scratched

Winning Spark - a bit of an unknown..but EPS is decent in relation to this handicap mark and could be a dark one..contender at the generous price

Shesha Bear - seems to be improving and has everthing in favour 73 mark has been a limiter in the past but may be a better horse now

Choral Festival - never won above class 5 and is 0/6 when rated in the 70's

Epsom Salts - seems to need quick ground to show best..beaten last twice when well handicapped on less than afst surface

Soundbyte - looks like a horse that needs a lower mark before he's let win..got hammered back up to 67 with the chepstow win and if wins this will be 2 years before it wins again;)

Super Duplex..12f not really his bag unless its steadily run so can outspeed them..todays race won't play to strength




So Winning Spark & Shesha Bear should run well here and will carry my cash

i'd like to know if anyone agrees or disagrees..have any other filters or ideas etc..any views on the approach;)
 
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Agree with everything you say but the money for Gunslinger makes me think they expect a big run and Scu has a decent record when teaming up with David Kenny.

One major concern for me is he seems a "horses for courses" type as his 4 wins have come at Lingfield (AW x 2) and Nottingham (x 2).

Would happily take 25's and hope for him to stay on into a place if as expected the pace collapses.

Martin
 
Good stuff EC1 - not looked at the race, but interested to see if races which look burnups on paper really do turn out that way, and if so whether they do favour hold-up horses. I'm not sure that horses who sit just behind the leaders are disadvantaged in such races per se, but would love to see the results.
 
Excellent work EC - pace considerations are a huge factor when having a bet over a distance on the flat. Know so little about the runners in the race you are talking about that I would have no valid input!
 
Irish Stamp said:
Agree with everything you say but the money for Gunslinger makes me think they expect a big run and Scu has a decent record when teaming up with David Kenny.

One major concern for me is he seems a "horses for courses" type as his 4 wins have come at Lingfield (AW x 2) and Nottingham (x 2).

Would happily take 25's and hope for him to stay on into a place if as expected the pace collapses.

Martin
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agree could be a good placer Martin..just the niggles to stop the win.

more i look at Winning Spark better it looks..Moore is in real good form..even big priced ones running well and looks underrated by the betting to me.
 
rorydelargy said:
Good stuff EC1 - not looked at the race, but interested to see if races which look burnups on paper really do turn out that way, and if so whether they do favour hold-up horses. I'm not sure that horses who sit just behind the leaders are disadvantaged in such races per se, but would love to see the results.
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lots of grey areas Rory isn't there?

to me its about comfort zones..step a horse outside and you get an under par run..Canford Cliffs? for example.

a chase leader type tends to just that...and if the leaders go hard from the start then those just behind get damaged too.

if we say the "average" pace a chase leader chases is even paceor slightly slower..which i would guess taking average of all races would be fair..then your average chase leader type is conditioned to that pace...a faster than "average" race takes the average chase pacer out of comfort zone.

the hard part also is being selective about the races ..including distance and track a little as well.

i'd like to run teh thread a bit and see what people think...some races won't work out of course..but if i get a 40/1 winner in this i'll not mind that:lol:
 
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make that an 80/1 shot on betfair :cool:
which probably means i'm way off the mark

might as well do a staking job for each race

1pt win Shesha Bear
0.5pt win Winning Spark
 
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EC1 said:
lots of grey areas Rory isn't there?

to me its about comfort zones..step a horse outside and you get an under par run..Canford Cliffs? for example.
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I thought of this after doing my money in the Cambridgeshire yesterday. It surely makes little sense backing horses in cavalry charges who haven't run in those sorts of contests before.

With CC, if Hughes hadn't panicked and had ridden the horse behind Frankel like he did in the 2000G he'd have been closer.
 
Well done Stampy -had a look at him after your post but chilling out after a good dinner and couldn't be bothered to pick up the phone.
Hope you cleaned up.
 
Wish I had Luke - EC did most of the work disecting the pace of the race.

Only horse bet today just got stuff at Clonmel :lol:
 
Irish Stamp said:
Wish I had Luke - EC did most of the work disecting the pace of the race.

Only horse bet today just got stuff at Clonmel :lol:
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Martin..oh no..were imagining you counting it

hopefully your input might encourage others to give views in future...little snippets of stuff like that can swing this type of thing

the whole race pointed to stamina..but i chose to ignore it..crazy in retrospect isn't it?

got a lot right overall..the fav beat..you got great winner and Shesha was there as expected...me 80/1 shot weren't but when you miss em out they win ;)..was always worth a go at that price with teh positives on offer
 
In theory it is though hindsight is always 20/20 - there was every chance though we could have been on a 25/1 shot plugging on into sixth.

Will try more of this in the future though :)
 
Pace is clearly very important and certainly decided the result of this year’s Leger, for example… it’s all about second guessing tactics though. Perhaps we should have foreseen Gosden’s plan. We concentrated too much on what Godolphin were going to do (the Godolphin pacemaker would likely have been looking to keep a steady pace, whereas Gosden’s pacemaker took them off their feet, setting it up for his stablemate).
 
Great thread this EC - One thing that the RUK presenters are good at is analysing pace angles in a race and I really think it is a vital thing to understand when punting seriously. I would tend to look more at the draw when the field gets too large but for smaller field races it is a good way of understanding whether or not the race will be run to suit and therefore whether your horses chances will be increased or not.

Perhaps we could profile the Arc before the weekend? Pace is going to be a key facet of that race. It will be interesting to see whether Ballydoyle use a pacemaker with SYT in the field.
 
Unlike many other French Group races the Arc is invariably run at a very decent pace throughout, which is why stamina in addition to speed is vital.
 
Steve - that's an astute observation, when you think how most French races are run: farcical work canter followed by turbo-blast off the last turn, with loads of horses baulked. Given how much French racing is run like that, is there a point to looking at pace? Aren't you usually just going for the horse/s with the best quarter-mile burst at the end? I've no idea what 'filtering' is - what is it? Just winnowing out best/least likely to make it/keep it up?
 
krizon said:
Steve - that's an astute observation, when you think how most French races are run: farcical work canter followed by turbo-blast off the last turn, with loads of horses baulked. Given how much French racing is run like that, is there a point to looking at pace? Aren't you usually just going for the horse/s with the best quarter-mile burst at the end? I've no idea what 'filtering' is - what is it? Just winnowing out best/least likely to make it/keep it up?
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The Arc, in which there is a super-saturated concentration of top ability, there is not much of a percentage in playing it clever. Hence they tend to go for it.

Most French racing is the opposite… but such races can still be looked at from the perspective of a lack of pace where those with a turn of foot would be favoured.
 
A fascinating subject. I'm pretty much in agreement with EC, in that pace is the most important factor in any given race and only with a grasp of how a race has been run can you form any meaningful and accurate conclusion as to what the form means moving forward.
 
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