Pace filtering

It would be nice to think so :lol: But at least it'll be hard objective data from which to make a start.
 
even without sectionals you can make a good stab about how past races were run..there are a few tells.

the pace collapse usualy ends up with the on pacers well beat..spotting a horse that stuck with that pace and still ran well is one angle.

the opposite scenario is the slow run race where those held up never got into it..again.. spot the horse that ran through horses..particularly good in maiden races where mainly they don't go hard early...many maiden races are suited to being on the pace..spotting the held horse that finishes close up can give future clues

a few generalisations there but past pace is usefule to know about.

the reason why i put Filter in the title Kri is to use as just that...remove any horse that is not suited to todays pace..regardless of any other factor..then study the rest using whatever method we might like.
 
Cheers, Stevie, and EC - that's kinda what I guessed was meant by 'filtering', but it's as well not to take a phrase you don't know too much for granted. Just when you think you've heard all the factors, up pops another! :lol:
 
rorydelargy said:
Good stuff EC1 - not looked at the race, but interested to see if races which look burnups on paper really do turn out that way, and if so whether they do favour hold-up horses. I'm not sure that horses who sit just behind the leaders are disadvantaged in such races per se, but would love to see the results.
Click to expand...

As am I. Important perhaps to note the distinction between a strong pace - that is, a pace sufficiently strong that horses held up are at no disadvantage - and a burnup - presumably an inefficiently run race in which horses held up are at a considerable advantage.

Having spent a summer closely watching Irish flat handicaps a couple of years back, I came to the conclusion that burnups are a considerable rarity and certainly a far less frequent occurrence than slowly-run affairs. A couple or more genuine front runners is almost certainly guaranteed to give hold-up types a fair shake, though not necessarily any considerable advantage.

I found burnups just as likely to occur due to a tearaway front-runner or through jockey error (or multiple jockey errors) as to a plethora of front-runners on paper.

Anyway I'll certainly be watching this thread with genuine (and probably financial) interest.
 
a quick mention for the 7.10 at Kempton

lots of potential pace here

in fact there are only 2 horses that should be favoured here

millyluvstoboogie
lady bayside


1 pt win on each
 
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They're not likely to hang around in the Arc. The pace should be honest enough to find out those who struggle to get the trip.
 
think a good chance of a big price winner in this :)

5.50 Southwell

horses likely to be involved with pace

lethal
sophies beau
tenancy
riflissimo

lots of negs for some of the others

i ended up with these 3 worth backing

GREEK SECRET
DOTTY DARROCH
NEEDWOOD PARK

1pt win on each
 
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