Paddy Power Money Back If Sprinter Sacre Wins

We could probably work out Paddys thought process in a 2x2 game theory table.

Have two decisions, back sprinter sacre or back other in the field.

To keep things simple use £1 level stake and find the minimax regret figure for the rest if the field+cashback, Sprinter Sacre odds + no cash back

If we can work out the Nash equilibrium then we no the correct direction to bet in
 
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There is No way paddys will let this go off anywhere near evens now.someone somewhere will be having a right rogering tomorrow

This will be 1/2
 
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They were wavering between this race and the CH. The only thing they have gotten wrong is the number of runners - with say ten or more the Luke / Slim Chance type scenario becomes way more difficult and puts the lazy types off.
 
links781 said:
There is No way paddys will let this go off anywhere near evens now.someone somewhere will be having a right rogering tomorrow

This will be 1/2
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If SS goes off 1/2 then the cover bet would generate a bigger return!!:lol: They are fucked either way. They are still going best price SS.
 
I've rounded up the local Polish community outside the Paddy Power. I have given them clear written instructions and cash. What could possibly go wrong.
 
SlimChance said:
I noticed that today. There are getting snowed under in bets. They've got caught this year with only 6 runners. I've set up a crew for tomorrow to get on.
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links781 said:
There is No way paddys will let this go off anywhere near evens now.someone somewhere will be having a right rogering tomorrow

This will be 1/2
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Incorrect-Powers will not influence the price if SS.
 
All you'll achieve by running round backing everything else in the race is busfare, taxi or petrol costs and if they cotton on you're the same person "OUCH!"

"IF" in this case is one huge word. More chance of man landing on the moon.

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In a helicopter :lol:
 
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LUKE said:
I think you need to understand the motivation behind this offer and the way Powers operate.It's all about getting customers into their Irish shops in the hope they will stay there for the four days.I would have no doubt the money at risk is coming from a marketing budget.
I assumed that Hurricane Fly would be the special horse for Powers but the fact that they have been longest on HF for the last week speaks volumes.
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They have made a serious error this year Luke.
 
LUKE said:
Here's my figures.
460 on Al Ferof at 11/4
210 Cue Card at 7/1
165 Menorah at 9/1
100 Blackstairsmountain at 16s
20 Foildubh at 80/1.
Putting down 955-worst case scenario I have to collect all the refunds,
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One needs to exercise extreme caution when proceeding in this way!
Or, at the very least, ensure that each selection in the race is betted in a different PP shop. You must not at any cost put more than one selection on each docket in any particular shop.
In no way should you even dream of doing this type of bet with your online account.

For anyone enthusing about this approach I would bring to attention bullet-point 7 of Paddy's T & C's as applied to this promotion.
"Paddy Power reserves the right to refuse refunds if a customer backs multiple runners in this race."
 
jft2005 said:
i have 5 different online accounts, with different names & addresses, bank details etc, all real people.
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Then in that case, JFT, you may proceed. :)
But be aware that Bookmakers ( and Baby Jesus ) don't like gnomers and gnoming accounts. If you are rumbled, Bookmakers will lock your account(s),............... and Baby Jesus will lock your immortal soul out of Heaven.
 
Just passed OnTheBridle in a Paddy Power.. He knew that I knew that he knew that I knew. Neither of us as much as blinked...
 
:lol: @ SlimChance .

jft2005 said:
ive rounded up the dutching to the nearest £5,
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So messy, tho' .............

Of course, a more straightforward way of locking in guaranteed no-risk profit on this offer is to:
Back any horse other than Sprinter Sacre with Paddypower.
Lay that horse for the same amount on Betfair
(You should pick a horse whose price is closest match on Paddy and Betfair).
Then Lay Sprinter Sacre on Betfair.
Your Lay stake AND your liability on Sprinter Sacre should equal your original stake on the other horse.

So (using arbitrary prices off the top of meh head) .............
Back Al Ferof £100 ( max stake allowed) at 11/4
Lay Al Ferof £350 @ 4.5 to win £100
Lay Sprinter Sacre £47 at the current 1.89 to win £53.
Takaing into account the normal price differential between Betfair and Paddypower, you should be looking at around £40 risk-free to be made out of this.

And you can do this in as many Paddy shops as you like.
 
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On The Bridle said:
Pain in my stones retracing my steps all around Cork......never again:p
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I have reported ye both to PP and have provided them with pictures of ye to be distributed to each shop.

Il also pay for the bounty hunter should ye have already collected. Bandits.
 
Euronymous said:
I found just backing Sprinter Sacre last year when he was at double figures was the best policy in this race.
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Smartarse - need a new pair of shoes and a packet of corn plasters!! Had enough on SS ante-post (not at your fancy prices) to keep a smile on my face until HF got his arse handed to him on a plate...
 
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