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Point Blank: The Bettor’s Utility Curve

Interesting as always, Slimbo. I'd never considered that Punt to Euro issue. But as you know, I only bet with peanuts anyway.

Suggestion, and please don't swear at me.

Ref:

So what is a stake really worth? Not a fixed number, not a unit, not a percentage spat out by Kelly. A true stake is where two axes cross: the most pain you can endure losing, and the least win you can accept without regret.
That’s the Bettor’s Utility Curve.

I failed LC maths and am probably wrong, but I think that when axes cross on a chart it creates a point, or co-ordinate, and not a curve as such.

'Bettor's Utility Equilibrium Point?'

And now I'll get off your f$%^ing thread!
 
Slim said:
open.substack.com

Point Blank: The Bettor’s Utility Curve

A man drives 58.5km across the desert of Nevada.
open.substack.com open.substack.com
Click to expand...
This resonated with me - "Leafy" has more "Beards" than you can shake a stick at whereas I can't be bothered with the potential hassle.

My oldest friend hasn't had to accost any Hungarians as yet, but one or two of his proxies aren't getting any younger and the arrangement is unlikely to feature in their wills should a departure occur sooner rather than later.

Opportunity Cost is something I reckon few think about much in any sphere of life - my father was an economist and published author on the subject so it was just one of many such terms drilled into me from an early age.

Another cracking read here from the House Of Slim, even if I do personally the prefer the term "punter" to "bettor."
 
The "wheelie bin" part of that struck a nerve.
I was told time and time again before i got my own betting shop to never give credit. You not only lose the money when they fail to pay, you also possibly lose a "friend" and you also lose a punter.
Did i listen ??? Did i hell !!!! :(
I dread to think how much i am owed but it is a hefty sum. And one such shyster was a supposed mate but you do find out what people are really like when gambling and money are involved.
Anyway, he owed me £200 and i hadnt seen him for months. Then one day as i was out shopping i noticed him coming towards me. He saw me and dived down the nearest alleyway between the shops where the wheelie bins were. He crouched down behind them so i just stood at the end of the alleyway to see what he would do. Then one of the shop staff came out of the side door and was questioning him as to why he was hiding there. And all i kept hearing was "go away, go away, go away". And then it was "has that bloke at the end gone?"

I just walked away and left it. That was many years ago. I hope he hasnt backed a winner since !!! :)
 
This reminds me of Veitch on Luck on Sunday a couple days ago. Obviously he is a God like figure in this industry and doesn't need some random fella on a forum like me to tell him what to do however the first thing I thought of was how much he was giving up (opportunity cost) for an edge in Hong Kong

His maths and logic played a massive part but the method of trial and error implementing them seems to be completely overlooked (which in my opinion is the one constant with every top punter I've seen, they all learn from reps of trial and error). 18 months tinkering an algorithm and data with no bet.

I'd have to wonder in those 18 months say with a base to work off and through repeated trial and error, tinkering with the algorithm after actually taking an opinion (I always find this way more accurate than retrospectively looking at things), how much could've been made.

Don't get me wrong, he'll do well over there as he does in nearly everything he's touched but its at some cost
 
an capall said:
Interesting as always, Slimbo. I'd never considered that Punt to Euro issue. But as you know, I only bet with peanuts anyway.

Suggestion, and please don't swear at me.

Ref:

So what is a stake really worth? Not a fixed number, not a unit, not a percentage spat out by Kelly. A true stake is where two axes cross: the most pain you can endure losing, and the least win you can accept without regret.
That’s the Bettor’s Utility Curve.

I failed LC maths and am probably wrong, but I think that when axes cross on a chart it creates a point, or co-ordinate, and not a curve as such.

'Bettor's Utility Equilibrium Point?'

And now I'll get off your f$%^ing thread!
Click to expand...

Good erm, point.
 
Ian_Davies said:
This resonated with me - "Leafy" has more "Beards" than you can shake a stick at whereas I can't be bothered with the potential hassle.

My oldest friend hasn't had to accost any Hungarians as yet, but one or two of his proxies aren't getting any younger and the arrangement is unlikely to feature in their wills should a departure occur sooner rather than later.

Opportunity Cost is something I reckon few think about much in any sphere of life - my father was an economist and published author on the subject so it was just one of many such terms drilled into me from an early age.

Another cracking read here from the House Of Slim, even if I do personally the prefer the term "punter" to "bettor."
Click to expand...

Have you a link to his published work?

I use bettor in honour of David Malinsky (RIP).
 
Quixall Crossett said:
The "wheelie bin" part of that struck a nerve.
I was told time and time again before i got my own betting shop to never give credit. You not only lose the money when they fail to pay, you also possibly lose a "friend" and you also lose a punter.
Did i listen ??? Did i hell !!!! :(
I dread to think how much i am owed but it is a hefty sum. And one such shyster was a supposed mate but you do find out what people are really like when gambling and money are involved.
Anyway, he owed me £200 and i hadnt seen him for months. Then one day as i was out shopping i noticed him coming towards me. He saw me and dived down the nearest alleyway between the shops where the wheelie bins were. He crouched down behind them so i just stood at the end of the alleyway to see what he would do. Then one of the shop staff came out of the side door and was questioning him as to why he was hiding there. And all i kept hearing was "go away, go away, go away". And then it was "has that bloke at the end gone?"

I just walked away and left it. That was many years ago. I hope he hasnt backed a winner since !!! :)
Click to expand...

Brilliant 😂
 
Thomas said:
This reminds me of Veitch on Luck on Sunday a couple days ago. Obviously he is a God like figure in this industry and doesn't need some random fella on a forum like me to tell him what to do however the first thing I thought of was how much he was giving up (opportunity cost) for an edge in Hong Kong

His maths and logic played a massive part but the method of trial and error implementing them seems to be completely overlooked (which in my opinion is the one constant with every top punter I've seen, they all learn from reps of trial and error). 18 months tinkering an algorithm and data with no bet.

I'd have to wonder in those 18 months say with a base to work off and through repeated trial and error, tinkering with the algorithm after actually taking an opinion (I always find this way more accurate than retrospectively looking at things), how much could've been made.

Don't get me wrong, he'll do well over there as he does in nearly everything he's touched but its at some cost
Click to expand...

Isn't he risking a little to potentially win a whole lot more?
 
Nice article. Sensible logic. Unfortunately, my mind doesn’t do sensible logic, it won’t tell my knocking knees my ten quid bet is just the normal one of a few years ago adjusted for inflation. It just says “but it’s ten quid, man, you’re in over your head”.
 
There's an obvious logic to Slim's piece but I would query a couple of elements.

Should anyone really be betting any amount that causes discomfort? Even at that axis point?

As for stakes not keeping up with inflation, I think that's a good in-built safety device.

Going back about 40 years, I had just moved house, stretching the combined resources of Mrs O and me to the limit to afford the move. The new house needed a wee electrical job done so I asked my electrician colleague to help, which he gladly did "for the price of a pint". In the car the conversation came round to punting since he had heard I studied the form. He asked me how much I bet and was quite surprised when I told him: 50p win or each-way, maybe a pound win if I feel confident.

He replied, "But the guys in the staff room tell me you're giving them winners every other day. Shouldn't you be betting much more than that?"

(It was around the same time one of those other colleagues, one who played the stock market and was known to have a bob or three, told me I should do that as I'd make a lot more but I don't trust markets and would worry too much that the short-term pain of the learning process would be too much.)

I explained that I was happy to bob along in and out of profit so long as I was enjoying the mental exercise and not risking losing much but it did make me think and change my ways a bit.

I worked out how much I was paying out each year on the Handicap Book, the annual form book and the very occasional Timeform Black Book, things I hasn't done before, and realised I probably wouldn't cover that outlay just on my bets unless I hit a really good run so I did decide to substantially increase my stakes, which in turn made me more careful/selective.

I was soon doing really well and before long had opened a number of telephone accounts and got my unit stake up to £20 which I maintained for some time once I realised the likes of Victor Chandler didn't like me taking £50 off them and I didn't have the time or inclination to start finding rat routes to getting bets on so I only increased my stakes much more gradually over a much longer period of time.

I've been gradually reducing my stakes over the last 15 years, the point at which I retired from work with my income dropping around 70% so I went into 'ultra-safe mode', probably the punting equivalent of 'limp home mode' in the car and have pretty much stayed there. It hasn't stopped arsehole companies like Boylesports, Sky, Hills, PP and Betvictor either refusing to take a bet off me or limiting me literally to pennies. I prefer to take a positive view of this since, as I keep saying, I have half an eye on stopping betting pretty much altogether (the GN will probably always be an exception) and haven't done much at all over the last few weeks. I'm actually enjoying the break more than I expected, with plenty of away days on the bus or snooker seshes.

Betting doesn't need to have a squeaky-bum element to it, in my opinion. I would even argue that it shouldn't.

I'm off into the world again...
 
Desert Orchid said:
There's an obvious logic to Slim's piece but I would query a couple of elements.

Should anyone really be betting any amount that causes discomfort? Even at that axis point?

As for stakes not keeping up with inflation, I think that's a good in-built safety device.

Going back about 40 years, I had just moved house, stretching the combined resources of Mrs O and me to the limit to afford the move. The new house needed a wee electrical job done so I asked my electrician colleague to help, which he gladly did "for the price of a pint". In the car the conversation came round to punting since he had heard I studied the form. He asked me how much I bet and was quite surprised when I told him: 50p win or each-way, maybe a pound win if I feel confident.

He replied, "But the guys in the staff room tell me you're giving them winners every other day. Shouldn't you be betting much more than that?"

(It was around the same time one of those other colleagues, one who played the stock market and was known to have a bob or three, told me I should do that as I'd make a lot more but I don't trust markets and would worry too much that the short-term pain of the learning process would be too much.)

I explained that I was happy to bob along in and out of profit so long as I was enjoying the mental exercise and not risking losing much but it did make me think and change my ways a bit.

I worked out how much I was paying out each year on the Handicap Book, the annual form book and the very occasional Timeform Black Book, things I hasn't done before, and realised I probably wouldn't cover that outlay just on my bets unless I hit a really good run so I did decide to substantially increase my stakes, which in turn made me more careful/selective.

I was soon doing really well and before long had opened a number of telephone accounts and got my unit stake up to £20 which I maintained for some time once I realised the likes of Victor Chandler didn't like me taking £50 off them and I didn't have the time or inclination to start finding rat routes to getting bets on so I only increased my stakes much more gradually over a much longer period of time.

I've been gradually reducing my stakes over the last 15 years, the point at which I retired from work with my income dropping around 70% so I went into 'ultra-safe mode', probably the punting equivalent of 'limp home mode' in the car and have pretty much stayed there. It hasn't stopped arsehole companies like Boylesports, Sky, Hills, PP and Betvictor either refusing to take a bet off me or limiting me literally to pennies. I prefer to take a positive view of this since, as I keep saying, I have half an eye on stopping betting pretty much altogether (the GN will probably always be an exception) and haven't done much at all over the last few weeks. I'm actually enjoying the break more than I expected, with plenty of away days on the bus or snooker seshes.

Betting doesn't need to have a squeaky-bum element to it, in my opinion. I would even argue that it shouldn't.

I'm off into the world again...
Click to expand...

I’ll tell you what depresses me about what you’ve written — that someone like you, who loves the challenge of betting and plays at a very modest level, still gets restricted. That’s everything that’s wrong with the game.
 
Slim said:
Isn't he risking a little to potentially win a whole lot more?
Click to expand...
In the pure sense of money he could've won, yes its probably a small amount to risk. But the opportunity cost of not participating in the market is risky. You can collect data forever however competing is difficult when that's all you do is theorise. Right now he's learning the theory of the market, a top 0.1% student, but when you step into the market with an elite level of theory vs people of similar intelligence + the experience of the 3 years you were studying actually competing, its dangerous. Especially when you know how smart you are. They can adapt to your model quicker than you can adapt to their experience

When you are risking capital every day (which your competitors are doing) even in small bunches for trial and error you have to adapt to what's going on. Thinking about the future money you will put on is not the same as putting money down today.

I remember reading his book, he started when he was in college I believe. At that age you have hunger and lack of fear, you go out with the knowledge you have and your limited income and learn and learn. Looking back its often the case that people think that this wasn't the cause it was the knowledge, maths, models whatever but it's a constant with every punter I've seen.
 
Thomas said:
In the pure sense of money he could've won, yes its probably a small amount to risk. But the opportunity cost of not participating in the market is risky. You can collect data forever however competing is difficult when that's all you do is theorise. Right now he's learning the theory of the market, a top 0.1% student, but when you step into the market with an elite level of theory vs people of similar intelligence + the experience of the 3 years you were studying actually competing, its dangerous. Especially when you know how smart you are. They can adapt to your model quicker than you can adapt to their experience

When you are risking capital every day (which your competitors are doing) even in small bunches for trial and error you have to adapt to what's going on. Thinking about the future money you will put on is not the same as putting money down today.

I remember reading his book, he started when he was in college I believe. At that age you have hunger and lack of fear, you go out with the knowledge you have and your limited income and learn and learn. Looking back its often the case that people think that this wasn't the cause it was the knowledge, maths, models whatever but it's a constant with every punter I've seen.
Click to expand...

Some excellent points and a very interesting topic. He’s so smart and guarded in what he does that I have to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he knows what he’s doing.
 
Slim said:
Some excellent points and a very interesting topic. He’s so smart and guarded in what he does that I have to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he knows what he’s doing.
Click to expand...

Yep I think he's reinvented himself enough times to deserve the benefit of the doubt and I'm sure he's aware of what he's pursuing. Its actually an area I think about due to my own issues betting (much bigger than Veitchs) in my constant need for narrative or theory around a horse rather than what I see and what I have seen before.
 
Thomas said:
Yep I think he's reinvented himself enough times to deserve the benefit of the doubt and I'm sure he's aware of what he's pursuing. Its actually an area I think about due to my own issues betting (much bigger than Veitchs) in my constant need for narrative or theory around a horse rather than what I see and what I have seen before.
Click to expand...

Sometimes you can’t tick every box — you just have to build in enough margin in the price you’re taking. Some of the worst decisions I’ve made in betting came from seeking more information when I should have just clicked ‘place bet’. One day I’ll write a piece about it. The problem is, when you ask someone for information, they feel obliged to tell you something even if they don’t know — and you end up with a worse-formed opinion than when you started.
 
Thomas said:
This reminds me of Veitch on Luck on Sunday a couple days ago. Obviously he is a God like figure in this industry and doesn't need some random fella on a forum like me to tell him what to do however the first thing I thought of was how much he was giving up (opportunity cost) for an edge in Hong Kong

His maths and logic played a massive part but the method of trial and error implementing them seems to be completely overlooked (which in my opinion is the one constant with every top punter I've seen, they all learn from reps of trial and error). 18 months tinkering an algorithm and data with no bet.

I'd have to wonder in those 18 months say with a base to work off and through repeated trial and error, tinkering with the algorithm after actually taking an opinion (I always find this way more accurate than retrospectively looking at things), how much could've been made.

Don't get me wrong, he'll do well over there as he does in nearly everything he's touched but its at some cost
Click to expand...
I've had a look at Hong Kong data re the OR's quoted on the RP site vs GB and IRE

1758742494238.png
 
Slim said:
I'd say Patrick goes a bit deeper than that.
Click to expand...
Ffs take a holiday from yourself

Obviously Patrick , and anyone else looking at it remotely seriously, looks further than that, but the fact that the OR being quoted for HK is such a weak kpi compared to the UK is interesting.
Is the assessment just sub optimal or are other factors the reason?
 
pawras said:
Ffs take a holiday from yourself

Obviously Patrick , and anyone else looking at it remotely seriously, looks further than that, but the fact that the OR being quoted for HK is such a weak kpi compared to the UK is interesting.
Is the assessment just sub optimal or are other factors the reason?
Click to expand...

I'll give you a chance to address your language.
 

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