Pre-Festival Betting Headspace

If any of us think we've had it bad this year, I've just been reading Lydia's very entertaining latest 'Road To' article. Of the thirteen bets she's advised so far prior to today, nine have gone down. Of the other four there's a no-hoper, two outsiders, and one genuine chance.

I'd say this illustrates precisely what we were saying originally. Backing ante post in the usual way, more than a couple of weeks out when the concessions come in, is throwing money down the toilet unless you get very lucky.

I'd say Lydia should keep up the series but forget advising ante post bets next season. There's no point in her advising bets in a market that's stopped functioning if she wants to retain credibility and continue to be respected as the fine journalist and pundit that she's become.
 
I disagree, Paul.

Such a tiny sample proves not very much, other than Lydia has had bugger-all luck. Some seasons it goes your way, and others it doesn't, and that's about it.

There's no doubt that ante-post betting is tougher these days, and there's no doubt that your on safer ground under NRNB conditions, but that doesn't invalidate going in earlier. It's all about risk-versus-reward, and some have a greater appetite for risk than others, and apply this to a particular ante-post strategy.

I think there is a tendency to overthink the ante-post 'conundrum'. It's horses for courses as far as I'm concerned.
 
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The problem with the horses for courses argument Nick is that many don't make the course at all, and of those that do plenty end up in entirely different races. Add to that the bookies squeezing any juice out of prices means it's surely more sensible now to wait until nrnb.
 
The chance of not running - either through injury or alternate target - is factored into the price you're prepared to take. That's the risk/reward element. You pays your money and you takes your chance.

It's also counter-intuitive (imo) to on the one hand argue about stingy bookies, and on the other, recommend waiting for NRNB to have a bet, when we know that prices are universally-clipped at precisely that point. It's not impossible to get on the wrong side of a price in that scenario, and want the horse not to bleedin' run! :lol:

Again, it comes back to risk/reward, which is a very personal thing. It's my belief that there is no right or wrong approach - there is only what suits a particular individual's style.
 
SlimChance said:
The ante post betting game has changed. One of the biggest, if not the biggest ante post punters in the U.K. no longer plays much at the festival. How can you when Willie can't make him mind up until next Monday? There just isn't the edge there used to be so it's possible what used to work for you, won't work anymore.
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Sounds like a guy who probably only plays the front of the market. I treat ante-post at the Festival little differently than I do on the flat. I look for horses whose targets I'm pretty sure of and get big prices because they are usually under the radar and not the sort of animals other punters are looking at. I'll take the hit of a few non runners if I know I have concrete value on three or four survivors. I have some nice positions this season and with all the concessions available next week I'm gonna find it hard not to show a profit. I don't do multis ante-post but will have a few on each day.
 
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Euronymous said:
Sounds like a guy who probably only plays the front of the market. I treat ante-post at the Festival little differently than I do on the flat. I look for horses whose targets I'm pretty sure of and get big prices because they are usually under the radar and not the sort of animals other punters are looking at. I'll take the hit of a few non runners if I know I have concrete value on three or four survivors. I have some nice positions this season and with all the concessions available next week I'm gonna find it hard not to show a profit. I don't do multis ante-post but will have a few on each day.
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This guy was putting £50k minimum in play every year. His bets always looked "fine" and then a week later you've egg on your face..
 
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Continuing on the topic...

From the Grand National thread:

Desert Orchid said:
Vieux Lion Rouge went up to 155 for Saturday so he'll be officially 6lbs well in and favourite in nearly all lists.

However, Tenor Nivernais went up 10lbs for his Ascot romp so will be just 2lbs less well-in than The Last Samuri last year (8/1) and is generally 33/1, 40/1 with Ladbrokes.

That's helluva compensation for stamina doubts but Oli Bell was going on about how long it took Treadwell to pull him up on Saturday.
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Tenor Nivernais won by 30 lengths going away that day in a time that had Simon Rowlands lamenting that he wasn't entered in the Gold Cup. Last Saturday Definitly Red won by 14 lengths in a less satisfactory-looking race and was slashed right across the board. He wouldn't be sighted in a Gold Cup yet is just behind the favourites in the betting as a result of that win.

They say beauty is in the eye of the beholder. In racing, substitute "value" for "beauty".
 
I read Colin's statement more of a how are we supposed to do it, in light of the uncertainties ? as opposed to what constitutes getting value, i.e. beating BSP.

and if so, then it's perfectly valid. An obvious example is last year's Ryanair. Early backers of Valseur Lido had achieved tremendous value on the Monday - as prices were certain to beat the forecast SP - but by the Thursday they had terrible value.
 
wilsonl said:
I read Colin's statement more of a how are we supposed to do it, in light of the uncertainties ? as opposed to what constitutes getting value, i.e. beating BSP.

and if so, then it's perfectly valid. An obvious example is last year's Ryanair. Early backers of Valseur Lido had achieved tremendous value on the Monday - as prices were certain to beat the forecast SP - but by the Thursday they had terrible value.
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There must be any number of horses that will start shorter than their current prices as more information comes into the market. I'm going to soend the day looking for these horses and putting them in five of six €3 Lucky 15s. All I'm looking to do is have say four 7/1 chances that go off 11/2. That will be €45 well spent.
 
Some prices that will move:

Kim Muir - Squouateur 10/1 (William Hill)
Brown Advisoary Plate - Sizing Codelco 12/1 (General)
 
I'll stick up a Lucky 15 I think has 4 movers with Boyles later. I just need to get to a shop. The bastards closed the Mrs account today.
 
Digger said:
I've learned....too late for this year....to stop placing the life changing £1m+ winning 5/6/7 accumulators... The majority of which i put on not long after the festival finishes! Probably had about 40+ AP bets and about 30+ are done due to horses no longer running. I have a bunch of decent ew trebles etc still going strong. But from now on there will be no more haymakers!
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I did about ten of these in October Digger, small stakes, £1M payouts, trebles up, six or seven selected. ALL of them started with Native River in the Hennessy at 14s and then rolled on to Cheltenham. I think I have about 2 EW trebs left. Never again.
 
an capall said:
I did about ten of these in October Digger, small stakes, £1M payouts, trebles up, six or seven selected. ALL of them started with Native River in the Hennessy at 14s and then rolled on to Cheltenham. I think I have about 2 EW trebs left. Never again.
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Jesus that is grim.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Is Betfred the only firm that does 3x the odds one winner in a Lucky 15 and do they offer it online?
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Pretty sure they culled that? Be careful because some firms done away with the 10% bonus for 4 winners as well. I only play Lucky 15s in the shops where the x3 applies.
 
Hi all, I was wondering if anyone has been keeping tabs on trainers in poor form at the moment. This seems to be something I only realise/hear about after the festival (e.g. Alan king last year)

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