Pricewise Gold Cup Tomorrow

G

Guest_

At the Start
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
14,178
Location
Ireland
Tomorrow the RP are doing a big pull out on the Gold Cup with Pricewise giving his tip for it. Like him or not he makes a horse's price shorter....so what do we think he will go for?

I think Exotic Dancer is the value bet right now but I see bookies have cut In Compliance and Kicking King tonight.
 
It will be interesting to see if it is indeed In Compliance then :laughing:

Bookies are quick to belittle Segal, but I'm struggling to believe they can have taken much money in a market as strong as the Gold Cup on In Compliance a few hours before the copy goes to press. Certainly nothing to precipitate a substantial cut in the price.

Surely it would require;

1) The info to get out, and be widely available
2) People to believe it
3) People to agree with Segal
4) People to get the money on (a lot of casual punters won't have accounts)
5) Bookies to take such a liability, they cut the price

Nah....

In any event, I seem to think he's been teeing Exotic Dancer up for about a month in the Weekender now, so I'd expect that to be the tip, and two things to be unconnected. I'm far from convinced that there is a so called wise price in this years renewal., as all the e/w value is going to be fighting it out for the one place. Mind you, I said that last year, before stumbling on the value at a 3 figure price about 5 weeks before hand. Does lightning strike twice? Nah... it's a watching and debating race.
 
One can only assume he's another whose under the impression that had Snowy stood up, he'd have won the Henessey. Now the logic is good, based on the respective prices between him and Denman I suppose. The problem of course, is that there's no evidence nor indication to suggest this would have happened, not to mention that they'd be off level weights. Realistically, he's asking one of Kauto, Denman or Exotic to fall, and it's not as if there aren't a few others capable of forcing their way into the picture who you'd say were better than Snowy anyway.
 
There was no story in picking the obvious winner of course. And none in picking his only realistic challenger

I havent read the piece, but if its a bet for a place, I think that third (and will ew stretch that far?) is more likely to go to something that simply plods round after Denman and Kauto have completly cooked the other contenders.
 
Originally posted by clivex@Jan 14 2008, 01:52 PM
I think that third (and will ew stretch that far?) is more likely to go to something that simply plods round after Denman and Kauto have completly cooked the other contenders.
Click to expand...
Exotic Dancer (Nap).
 
Originally posted by Bar the Bull@Jan 14 2008, 12:04 PM
Does the beast definitely run?
Click to expand...
My brother works with a son of one of the owning syndicate and he says the Irish National is the target.Anything he has said about the horse in the past has been accurate.Thats the information I have -time will tell if its correct.
I was listening to Willie Mullins beng interviewed on ATR on Sunday morning and when it came to SM he just said a return to fences by the end of the season.
 
Could someone please explain why Segal has tipped up a horse that is a probable NR in the Gold Cup, even by his own admission?! Nah, it's got me knackered!!!!!!
 
Maybe he was taking advantage of Betfred's NRNB they were offering yesterday on the race.
To be honest I haven't the foggiest,what else could he have selected that you could say could be an ew alternative to Exotic Dancer presuming Kauto and Denman get there in one piece?
 
He should have had a look at Chandlers betting without the big 2 market. With a lot of the decent 2nd tier horses likely to be NR's there would be some value, in the third tier I reckon. I ran down the list going yes, no, yes, no etc regarding participation and concluded that we were looking at a small field. With two obvious ones removed, you probably had something close to an under round book once you started to chip out the likely non participants.

I'm the last person to start handing out lectures though, as I readily acknowledge that 'knowing how to bet' isn't a strong suit of mine. I still maintain it's an area that punters don't give enough attention to, and one that's cost me fortunes in lost opportinities previously. Basically, there's more than one way to skin a cat etc and the resoruceful gambler with the greater knowledge of 'how to gamble', with the view to minimising risk and maximising potential, will normally out perform the punter who probably possesses the superior horse racing knowledge.
 
I think thats a very risky market to get involved in. Especially at Cheltenham. Simply put, the third best horse is certainly not always going to finish third. How often do we see those realitsic contenders that make a challenge or try to keep pace fade away to be passed by some unregarded plodder?
 
Exactly why the Chandlers market is value Clive, particularly given that when you take out those that won't turn up you are working on an underround. If you are happy to take Exotic Dancer out you have some fantastic prices for a race that may well only have eight runners come the day and you've already accounted for the three at the top of the market!

Chandlers bet-

Exotic Dancer 2/1
Star de Mohaison 8/1
Aces Four 12/1
In Compliance 12/1
Kicking King 12/1
Neptune Collonges 12/1
Halcon Genelardais 12/1
Mossbank 14/1
Our Vic 14/1
Snowy Morning 14/1
The Listener 14/1
State of Play 16/1
Racing Demon 16/1
Turpin Green 20/1
Monkerhostin 20/1
L'antartique 20/1
Ollie Magern 33/1
Strong Promise 33/1
 
Originally posted by Maruco@Jan 16 2008, 10:53 AM
Exactly why the Chandlers market is value Clive, particularly given that when you take out those that won't turn up you are working on an underround. If you are happy to take Exotic Dancer out you have some fantastic prices for a race that may well only have eight runners come the day and you've already accounted for the three at the top of the market!

Chandlers bet-

Exotic Dancer 2/1
Star de Mohaison 8/1
Aces Four 12/1
In Compliance 12/1
Kicking King 12/1
Neptune Collonges 12/1
Halcon Genelardais 12/1
Mossbank 14/1
Our Vic 14/1
Snowy Morning 14/1
The Listener 14/1
State of Play 16/1
Racing Demon 16/1
Turpin Green 20/1
Monkerhostin 20/1
L'antartique 20/1
Ollie Magern 33/1
Strong Promise 33/1
Click to expand...
Totesport have released a market without the top 3, KS, Denman & ED.
 
Originally posted by Bar the Bull@Jan 16 2008, 11:58 AM
Turpin Green looks a very good bet in this market, too.
Click to expand...
I agree; the horse is a rogue with a capital R but as last year showed, the race is run to suit him and he does have a load of talent. I can almost hear the conversation at VC while they were compiling it mind - "no f*cking chance! It's a f*cking hairy dog!" :laughing:
 
Originally posted by Steve T+Jan 16 2008, 11:53 AM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Steve T @ Jan 16 2008, 11:53 AM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Maruco@Jan 16 2008, 10:53 AM
Exactly why the Chandlers market is value Clive, particularly given that when you take out those that won't turn up you are working on an underround. If you are happy to take Exotic Dancer out you have some fantastic prices for a race that may well only have eight runners come the day and you've already accounted for the three at the top of the market!

Chandlers bet-

Exotic Dancer 2/1
Star de Mohaison 8/1
Aces Four 12/1
In Compliance 12/1
Kicking King 12/1
Neptune Collonges 12/1
Halcon Genelardais 12/1
Mossbank 14/1
Our Vic 14/1
Snowy Morning 14/1
The Listener 14/1
State of Play 16/1
Racing Demon 16/1
Turpin Green 20/1
Monkerhostin 20/1
L'antartique 20/1
Ollie Magern 33/1
Strong Promise 33/1
Click to expand...

[/b][/quote]
I would be very keen to back Turpin Green Each way at 20/1 without the big 2. Ability it is there, and if it comes out he will be in the first 5 or 6 home you would imagine.
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader@Jan 16 2008, 05:27 PM
- "no f*cking chance! It's a f*cking hairy dog!" :laughing:
Click to expand...
Oh its great to get a snippet of what these highly skilled professional people get about there work :laughing:
 
Looking at those likely to line up in The Ryanair and those that have other plans the race is not going to look very different to last years other than Denman. That surely means the three to concentrate in the Totesport market without the top three are Turnip Green, Monkerhostin and State of Play, 3rd, 4th and 6th last year (5th Cane Brake is out), particularly as you can take e/w terms at attractive odds. You then have six places in play for what I suspect will be a ten runner field barring any no-hopers that are left in.
 
Back
Top