Pricewise Gold Cup Tomorrow

Originally posted by Maruco@Jan 17 2008, 01:36 PM
Looking at those likely to line up in The Ryanair and those that have other plans the race is not going to look very different to last years other than Denman. That surely means the three to concentrate in the Totesport market without the top three are Turnip Green, Monkerhostin and State of Play, 3rd, 4th and 6th last year (5th Cane Brake is out), particularly as you can take e/w terms at attractive odds. You then have six places in play for what I suspect will be a ten runner field barring any no-hopers that are left in.
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The one thing I'd say about that is that last year it wasn't as patently obvious as it is this year that the 3 you mention are so obviously outclassed. I can't remember Williams exact quote after Leopardstown but he more or less conceded State Of Play isn't going to be winning a Gold Cup. Being outclassed by one horse gives you a feasible chance but 3 is getting into dreamland.

Surely there will be a temptation for these horses to try their luck in a handicap or even skip Cheltenham altogether and have a look at what's available at Fairyhouse? There should be some nice prizes easily won at Fairyhouse this year.
 
Or they might split the Ryanair Chase into two divisions to accommodate all the Gold Cup refugees. :)
 
Seeing the markets, Hedgehunter run much better than Rule Supreme


Pomme Tie won easily the mares race.


Cooldine luck winner with the fall of the other.
 
The Man From Slatt tired very very very badly in the closing stages of the Hunter Chase, not sure what to make of the run really as Cheltenham will be further but the ground will be nowhere near as bad and hopefully Jamie Codd will get the pace right next time.
 
Exactly why the Chandlers market is value Clive, particularly given that when you take out those that won't turn up you are working on an underround. If you are happy to take Exotic Dancer out you have some fantastic prices for a race that may well only have eight runners come the day and you've already accounted for the three at the top of the market!
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Fair point. I suppose i have an inbuilt aversion to EW betting (partly because of reasons ive stated) but one that will certainly be staying on at the end would be Halcon..

Interesting maybe
 
Originally posted by Irish Stamp@Jan 17 2008, 02:47 PM
Nobody picking up on the inclusion of STRONG Promise rather than Another Promise.

Poor stuff from the Chandler's.
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Except that their website says Another Promise. It might not be VC, it depends on 1) where the information was cut and paste from - if it came from another site they could have made the error or 2) the prices as transcribed on here may have been typed in by the poster and it could be their error. Knowing the lads who will have compiled the list I'd be very, very surprised if they made that error, not least as the lad who would be my favourite to have typed it out is too young to remember Strong Promise!!!!
 
"I don't know where we go next with him, it could be we go straight to the Gold Cup again. If the big two run there is sure to be a serious pace and I think my fellow could run a blinder and make the frame"

- Evan Williams in this weeks weekender. If the Tote are 16/1 without KS, Den and ED I couldn't resist it. I reckon that once you take the NR's out (eductade guess work admittedly) they're betting to 42%, and there's a few question marks over the fitness of a few too
 
I think the 16/1 mentioned earlier in the thread is with Exotic dancer in. Maybe the Tote have him at the same price without ED as well but I doubt it.
 
It would appear to be 12's now. Turpin Green is 14's, Ollie Magern 16's and Monkerhostin 25's. Given that you've effectively taken the front 3 out of the equation, and the named horses appear likely to turn up in what looks like being a small field I half regret that I didn't cover a few others but have had instead, a fair sized bet on the one
 
Originally posted by Shadow Leader+Jan 17 2008, 06:47 PM--></div><table border='0' align='center' width='95%' cellpadding='3' cellspacing='1'><tr><td>QUOTE (Shadow Leader @ Jan 17 2008, 06:47 PM)</td></tr><tr><td id='QUOTE'> <!--QuoteBegin-Irish Stamp@Jan 17 2008, 02:47 PM
Nobody picking up on the inclusion of STRONG Promise rather than Another Promise.

Poor stuff from the Chandler's.
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Except that their website says Another Promise. It might not be VC, it depends on 1) where the information was cut and paste from - if it came from another site they could have made the error or 2) the prices as transcribed on here may have been typed in by the poster and it could be their error. Knowing the lads who will have compiled the list I'd be very, very surprised if they made that error, not least as the lad who would be my favourite to have typed it out is too young to remember Strong Promise!!!! [/b][/quote]
Fair point - I was under the impression it was a copy and paste website job.
 
Had a flick through this again, and reckon Turpin would be the one in the support cast that I'd be more happy to leave alone. He did me a favour last year running into third at 100/1, and got chopped up twice, but he's unlikely to get the slow pace I'm increasingly thinking he needs. If he's asked to go a decent clip I think he has a tendancy to throw the towel and protest. Ollie Magern should ensure a decent clip from the start, and with Denman and to a lesser extent State of Play seemingly committed to trying to run the finish out of Kauto and get both his jumping and stamina under pressure, it seems logical to think we might be in for a quick pace. That being so, I'd be concerned that Turpin Green never appears to have won a quick race before. You only need to look at his wins and compare his RPR against his TS;

TS .... RPR

81 .... 150
- ...... 159 (silly race at Carlisle where they stopped half way round)
109 .. 142
118 .. 146
75 .... 136
67 .... 105

28Ibs the nearest speed figure he's ever put in victory to his RPR. In the 3 races which appear to have been run quickly he finished 35L's, 12L's and 17.5L's away. Having committed to State of Play already without the big 3, I'm tempted to think Monkerhostin represents good value to get round in sixth or better too.
 
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