Prix de Diane - Sunday

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Aragorn

At the Start
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Apr 16, 2009
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Anyone had a good look at this? Very classy race on paper but I need someone to talk me out of a hefty e/w bet on Terrakova. 6/1 with Victor. Rhododendron and Shutter Speed are worthy market leaders on form but the french filly has plenty of pluses. She is unexposed, I was taken with her trial win and with her illustrious parentage you know she has the class. Can't see her out of the first three.
 
Took 9/4 about the O'Brien filly yesterday. Amazed she wasn't 6/4.

Terrakova is respected but Rhodo's form looks bombproof and I kind of have a rule that when the clear best horse in a given race isn't fav I have to back them.
 
Would I be right in saying APOB has never won this race -tempted to place lay Rhododendron -this race is an afterthought and I can't think of any horse who has run at Epsom and been placed in this race -it's a big ask.
 
I'd agree, would be keener on shutter speed despite the fact Rhod is clearly crying out for 10f, three classics in a short space of time is a big ask. Didn't know that Edjt. Also read a piece about unexposed french 3yo's in rp as well, 11 of the last 14 winners were unbeaten french 3yo's and we have one qualifier this year.
 
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Assumed that other horse was a runner, get your point now Edgt!!! ha!! Anything related to goldikova has a chance of being brilliant though, especially with Galileo involved.
 
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What concerns me about Rhododendron is how easily she was beaten in the Oaks and I am bamboozled that she is shorter than the Gosden filly.

You could argue this trip will suit OAB's better and that she was traveling well 2 1/2f out when Moore dropped his hands and sat still for a few strides.

I looked again and to me it looked more like Moore thought there wasn't too much left in the tank and eased off to conserve energy.

The fact is she was outclassed by Enable and although well clear of the 3rd I wouldn't think that entitles her to be favourite here,

Logic tells me Shutter Speed should be a very short price to beat her.

She already kicked Enable into touch with an impressive turn of foot that the Oaks filly couldn't match so I can't see how on earth Rhododendron. is meant to compete.

Granted Enable looks like she could win a St Leger but she is no slouch as her Oaks win proves....Shutter Speed could be even better IMO

It's not a 2 horse race but Gosden for me has the upper hand and Shutter Speed should win yet another big prize for him
 
Tanlic said:
What concerns me about Rhododendron is how easily she was beaten in the Oaks and I am bamboozled that she is shorter than the Gosden filly.

You could argue this trip will suit OAB's better and that she was traveling well 2 1/2f out when Moore dropped his hands and sat still for a few strides.

I looked again and to me it looked more like Moore thought there wasn't too much left in the tank and eased off to conserve energy.

The fact is she was outclassed by Enable and although well clear of the 3rd I wouldn't think that entitles her to be favourite here,

Logic tells me Shutter Speed should be a very short price to beat her.

She already kicked Enable into touch with an impressive turn of foot that the Oaks filly couldn't match so I can't see how on earth Rhododendron. is meant to compete.

Granted Enable looks like she could win a St Leger but she is no slouch as her Oaks win proves....Shutter Speed could be even better IMO

It's not a 2 horse race but Gosden for me has the upper hand and Shutter Speed should win yet another big prize for him
Click to expand...

Tanlic, whilst your points are valid, I want to possibly place a spanner in the works, when Shutter Speed & Enable ran at Newbury, Shutter Speed had been in full work since Feb and had 8/9 gallops, and a racecourse gallop, Enable came in the 2nd week in March, was nowhere near ready at Newbury, and had only had 2 serious gallops prior to Newbury. She also was given a very kind and educational ride. She stepped forward massively at Chester and again at Epsom and is a real nice staying filly. I'm not saying Shutter Speed is not a good filly, but I wouldn't read too much into the Newbury race, both fillies were at very different stages of their preparation for the season ahead. Shutter Speed works like a speedy filly at home, whilst she has won nicely over 10f on two occasions and got slightly tired on testing ground last time, I would prefer to see her tacking races over a mile or extended miles on what she shows at home. 10.5f at Chantilly is not a searching 10.5f I'll admit, but whilst she is a high class filly, I would have been more confident with Enable in this than her. On gallops at home (they don't work together but have worked with the same lead horse on occasions) Enable is the better filly.
 
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I find that strange you should say that because John Gosden himself said 6 weeks ago Shutter Speed was his best middle distance filly but things change

Ok Enable won the Oaks which is all well and good but the question has to be how good an Oaks was it?

Considering she went off unfancied (6/1) against OAB's 8/11 I have to ask exactly what did she beat?

She has won like a 1/4 shot and that had to be a surprise which tells me either she's a world beater or AOB's is over rated

I'll go for the latter.

As for the trip while no doubt Shutter Speed would be as good at a mile this trip on the all important good ground and the RH course must be right up her street.

I honestly fear the French more than I do AOB's
 
Well i've had a decent e/w bet on Terrakova this morning, 6/1 was gone annoyingly so i'm waiting to see if there's any drift in the UK markets to get a bit more on. Real high quality race and I expect the winner to turn out be a top notcher.
 
Excerpt from a piece in the RP:

going back to Nebraska Tornado in 2003, only West Wind had previously suffered defeat among the first French-trained fillies home in the race.

Confidential Lady (2006) and Star Of Seville (2015) are the only foreign-trained winners during that period and even they were chased home by unbeaten French fillies.

Put another way, 11 of the last 14 winners were unbeaten and trained in France.

If the trend is to hold true in 2017, the only qualifier among the 20 remaining entries after the second forfeit stage is Terrakova...

I'm not one for trends but this is compelling enough to enhance my confidence.....
 
Money back and a few shillings on this, might have got closer with a better run but winner probably the best horse in the race. Somewhat of an anticlimax though in many ways.
 
As I feared the Shutter Speed bubble burst. She showed today she would be better at a mile, but group 1 filly she isn't.
Always risky taking early season form at form value when horses that weren't ready come out and frank it.
 
It was annoying that the winner was the horse which caused the rest of the field to be sat in the stalls for longer than was good for them
 
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