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Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2023

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
27,914
I don't see a thread for the race but imagine it will have been discussed on various threads over the course of the season.

I'm just working my way through the form but wondered if anyone out there has a link to a site for official German racing containing their official ratings for the German horses?

Likewise the Japanese?

I do think Japanese racing is higher class than ours but they have the journey to contend with for racing in this near-antipodean region.

No decisions so far for me on bets but Hukum looks a bit generous at his current 13/2.

I do have a longshot in mind but am holding off for 33s or better through the next 36 hours. I've been very lucky in this race in the past so hoping lightning can strike again.
 
I’ve gone for Fabres filly so far. Other than that I’ll settle for Hukum....rest just really do it for me. Unlike me not to get psyched up by the race either.
 
Yeh, for me, take out Hukum and Westover - the best form going into the race - and it's looking substandard.

The fast ground has paradoxically put a dampener on any enthusiasm I might have had for the German horse although it was decent ground for the Niel.

I worry that the Japanese betting public might kill the price of Through Seven Seas.

Anyroads...

This is a screenshot of the current Japanese rankings:

Screenshot (38).png
 
Keen on Bay Bridge. His best form is on deep but he'd have gone close in last year's POW on fast ground with a better ride and he shouldn't be double figures. I don't like the draw for Hukum who has form claims and the fav is too short. Continuous should be a bigger price than Stoute's horse. No chance imo. No idea about the Japanese or German horses but with the market leaders being very short in an open renewal I feel I have a bit of value.
 
Feed The Flame chasing home Ace Impact.
That said, seeing how these two are ridden will be interesting!
 
Yes, it was a generalisation on my part about German horses, having been swayed by the conditions to row in with Danedream and Torquator Tasso, and, to an extent, Alpinista having run there en route last year.
 
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Through seven seas was a bit unlucky to get beat by equinox and as hes highly rated then TSS seems worth a go at 14s.
 
Outsider said:
Through seven seas was a bit unlucky to get beat by equinox and as hes highly rated then TSS seems worth a go at 14s.
Click to expand...

I'll try and have a look at that replay, Outsider. I did see you'd put it on another thread.

I'm also fascinated at how fast the times of races are in Japan. They don't seem to mind allowing firm ground to prevail over there and the time of that race with Equinox over 11f extrapolates to a 12f time - assuming the distances are accurate - of 2m 23s. I can't see any track in Europe getting within two or three seconds of that.

I do have a high opinion of our King George this year and think everything will have to go some to trouble Hukum and Westover. I plan to watch that race again to see if there are any grounds for believing the latter can turn it around.

I also hope they don't turn out to be Grundy and Bustino Mk II.
 
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Really can't see why Hukum's so short for this?
All out to win an attritional KG on g/s, he'll find tomorrow's race a totally different challenge.
Place lay,imo.
 
I think this is a poor renewal - one of the races of the year usually where all the best across a wide range come together and anything can happen. I love Hukum, would love him to get this. I'm sure they have said he's not ground dependent but my impression of him, and probably wildly wrong, is he takes a while to 'get going/get into his stride'. Almost unwilling for a few seconds but then he digs in. Morning Line - yes okay - said slow pace would suit Ace Impact, who honestly I know little about, but I think it would suit Hukum. Ace Impact never been this far before and that could find him out and blunt his speed. If Jim can get handy with Hukum and hang onto him and then just wind up it from a ways out, I think it could be his for taking.
 
Agree with what you guys seem to think that the race is substandard.

So much so I think Westover will win it and I am not his biggest fan.
 
If he does, you’ll hear some stomping around in Somerset :lol:.......(I’m not a Rafe fan!)
 
Euronymous said:
Keen on Bay Bridge. His best form is on deep but he'd have gone close in last year's POW on fast ground with a better ride and he shouldn't be double figures. I don't like the draw for Hukum who has form claims and the fav is too short. Continuous should be a bigger price than Stoute's horse. No chance imo. No idea about the Japanese or German horses but with the market leaders being very short in an open renewal I feel I have a bit of value.
Click to expand...
With you on this, typical SMS prep, down in class on a RH track,nicely drawn has a turn of foot and trainer seems to think ground will suit.
16/1 4pl generous,imo.
 
I disagree that the race is substandard.
Andre Fabre of the opinion that the 3 year olds are not up to standard.
I disagree with that too, for now at least !
Plenty of hard knocking Group 1 horses here, as usual so if a 3 year old wins there can be no complaining.
I would be on Continuous to win if there was an extra week between St Leger and today; Ace Impact a deserved fav imo.
 
I think 7/1 each of Hukum and Westover is very generous.

They dutch at 3/1 and I reckon Ace Impact will need to find [on my figures] 8lbs (6lbs on ORs) just to dead-heat with them.

That's quite a margin at this level.

I do still worry that the King George will have left its mark on both but if not they will be very hard to beat. I've gone in heavier on Hukum and lighter on Westover rather than a straight dutch. I think there's a chance Westover will remember the closing stages of Ascot more than Hukum.
 
I was on the trainers modules at the racing school with him all those years ago and he was an arrogant tw*t. Then some years later there were a large number of thefts at racecourses of tack etc. I got a decent racing bridle stolen and asked to see the course CCTV. It was two of his lads. I reported it to the police who then went with Rafe’s version of “all stable staff borrow tack from time to time if they need to!” At the time I could ill-afford to lose a valuable bit of tack, but despite my trying to reason with him, it fell on deaf ears. Some years later, I rented out a couple of rooms in Newmarket (under my partners name) for the sales period. He booked a couple of lads in so I fleeced him by charging him double....seemed right really......:lol: and at least I got the value of my bridle back!

So no, I’m not remotely a fan...and I’m not the only one amongst the racing fraternity.
 
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Watching the races on Virgin Media 2 is a little like watching Allo Allo without the humour.
The presenters , one of whom is named Fanny speak with a French inflection, with little or no emotion.
The pedigree expert keeps fluffing his lines.
Fanny interviews the winning connections, none of whom pay her any attention.
I am waiting for one of the team to say "Listen carefully, I shall say this only once "
 
No stomping required...phew!

Horse won with plenty in hand under a very polished ride.....good performance.
 

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