Prix Jean Prat

You don't win Group 1's and not have a hard race, fact

I've see many trainers make the mistake of thinking when a horse wins a good race comfortably that they haven't have a hard race.

I think the Irish Derby shows this on the Epsom form, those given stronger rides up front have been leapfrogged by ones eased down out the back.

At Ascot Henry was pushed out to see off Ravens Pass and Twice Over, for me he was showing signs that day he had a hard race.

Admittedly a months break in between, but I feel Ravens Pass whilst given too much to do today was a bit flat and whilst Kandahar Run's work on the gallops with Twice Over has pretty much been 1lb to 1lb with his finishing position today, I feel Kandahar Run has benefitted from a no show in the Derby.

I really think when you have ridden you appreciate its not the severity of a ride that determines a hard race but the level of your opposition. I would hardly say he won in a canter at the Curragh either, impressive yes, canter no.

You say Aidan is very good at what he does and you're right but Henry went off the boil this time last season and I for one wouldn't be at all surprised to see it happen again. Horses are not machines and to expect a horse to perform to its potential in 4 top class races in the small space of 12 weeks is extremely rare. Horses tend to peak for around 4 weeks. The key is having them 10% off peak for your first race and getting 2 to 3 in whilst your at peak. You may grab another as you start to lose a bit but sooner or later the horse will be off peak.

I agree Aidan has proved he can defy this with the types of Dylan Thomas and so forth but its harder with younger horses who are still growing.

I'm not saying I want to see Henry get beat, as a champion is good for any sport but I don't for one minute think he is nailed on. I do think their are improvers and hidden stars in the ranks waiting to come through. Henry is a top class colt absolutely no doubt about that but whilst soft ground was an obvious reason for two subsequent disappointments last season, I do feel the horse may be vulnerable on his 4th start of the season in little over 3 months.
 
O'Brien has kept Rock Of Gibraltar, Giants Causeway, High Chaparral, Johannessburg, Holy Roman Emperor etc all at 2 and 3.

Of course he has had to put in efforts in all his races...but relatively speaking they have not been "hard" races.

You point to his form tailing off, Chris your better than that, its hardly a co-incidence that his form tailed off when the ground went heavy!

While I am not suggesting you want to see Henry get beat, but you did put Stubbs Art up to beat him or at the very least to get very close to him at Ascot despite Henry beating him hollow at The Curragh and Newmarket.

4 races in three months is not that much given the timing of each race.
 
yes I did Galileo and Stubbs Art came back all wrong in his back and never travelled.

I just thought Stubbs was good value at Ascot, but he flopped. I've never been one to back at odds on, as it has no interest to me.
 
chrisbeekracing said:
yes I did Galileo and Stubbs Art came back all wrong in his back and never travelled.

I just thought Stubbs was good value at Ascot, but he flopped. I've never been one to back at odds on, as it has no interest to me.
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Fair enough Chris, I wouldn't touch him either at his prices but at the same time I would not oppose him for the sake of it.
 
if you don't think there worth backing, then lay em, thats what I do.

Laying odds on shots lately has been a gold mine, many getting turned over.

Have laid Egypt today at 9/2 for me he has no chance of beating Progreso who looks nailed on to me on his last run.
 
chrisbeekracing said:
I agree on raw form, but Henry has now had 3 very hard races and I'm not sure how much more he will take.
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Don't buy that at all to be honest. His campaign's been very nicely spaced out so far IMO (similar to Rock of Gibraltar's) and he's given absolutely no indication that he's had enough. O'Brien wouldn't risk him if he wasn't sending out the right signals at home anyway.

Actually, I would argue that two of the horses you mentioned- Ravens Pass and Infallible- have had "harder" campaigns than Henrythenavigator thusfar.
 
davidjohnson said:
Pathetic effort from Gosden/Fortune on the Ravens Pass tactics.
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How anyone can send these two a horse after their continued efforts to ensure Raven's Pass fails to win a Group 1 is almost beyond belief.

First the Guineas, then St James Palace and now the Prix Jean Prat. When will their nonsense stop?
 
Darjina has no entries either side of the channel until the Sussex stakes. However she is 34/1 on Betfair.

Now I am her biggest fan and I'm not sure even I would back her to beat Henrythenavigator. But with likely fast ground(?) there are plenty in front of her in the market that I would take on. Getting the mare's allowance too.
 
Andrew Hurley said:
How anyone can send these two a horse after their continued efforts to ensure Raven's Pass fails to win a Group 1 is almost beyond belief.

First the Guineas, then St James Palace and now the Prix Jean Prat. When will their nonsense stop?
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The horse was 4. in Guineas and then 2nd twice. On what sort of level are you complaining here? Beyond believe how some talk through their pockets. How about he had back luck in the Guineas and simply met two high-class horses in the other two races? How anyone can call that nonsens is beyond me.
 
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