Punchestown Festival 2018

i've stepped in on Douvan

UDS's punchestown form is generally a fair bit below what he produces elsewhere and Min has had quite a long season now, going into his 3rd spring festival race

he probably wont need to be that near 100% to win this
 
Be interesting to see the opening shows later today for the 4:55 tomorrow as there's a serious standout here but I'm worried it won't be missed.

6 places going to be available with Skybet and Paddy.
 
wilsonl said:
Be interesting to see the opening shows later today for the 4:55 tomorrow as there's a serious standout here but I'm worried it won't be missed.

6 places going to be available with Skybet and Paddy.
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So 365 were first up and had him in as 8/1 fav. Hills have just put up a show and he's 6/1. I've taken the 8s, 5 places, 1/4 odds

The horse of course is Ballyoisin and he must have a huge chance in this.

Ballyoisin (the choice of Geraghty from the JP sextet) is off a mark 25lb lower than his chase rating. He runs here off 131 yet has been running over fences all season with some excellent performances, beginning with a 4 length beating of Doctor Phoenix when giving him 6lb, albeit he had a 7lb claimer on board that day.

He has since been touched off by Disko with the likes of A Toi Phil and Aniballe Fly back in the field then was then the only horse to remotely challenge Un De Sceaux in the market in the Hilly Way before looking like losing out on 2nd place to Top Gamble when taking a tumble two out.

He's only had 3 runs over hurdles, starting with a 4L 3rd behind good horses Limini and Sandymount Duke followed by an 11L, eased down maiden win at Navan.

His final outing over timber was an admirable 3rd here last May, carrying top weight of 11st 10lb. Indicentally, Geragthy's lowest riding weight in the past twelve months is 10st 5lb yet he kicks off his meeting on this, doing 10st 6lb.


To put his chance vs price into perspective; Total Recall had the same chase mark when winning the handicap hurdle at the DRF off 125 (a 31lb differential) and went off at odds on and I'm surprised Ballyoisin is as big as he is, probably partly because of the focus on the Mullins/Elliott horses.
 
JamesRB said:
UDS's punchestown form is generally a fair bit below what he produces elsewhere
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Not sure how you arrive at that conclusion.

UDS is an overlay here.

The only thing I question about this horse at this stage is age.
Altior is not running and while many seem to be swooning over Douvan, his price and current incarnation do not warrant much enthusiasm from me.

I find UDS simply underrated in the scheme of this race and I'll take my chances and pay to find out at 7/1.
 
brendanr said:
Not sure how you arrive at that conclusion.

UDS is an overlay here.

The only thing I question about this horse at this stage is age.
Altior is not running and while many seem to be swooning over Douvan, his price and current incarnation do not warrant much enthusiasm from me.

I find UDS simply underrated in the scheme of this race and I'll take my chances and pay to find out at 7/1.
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his 2 chases there

3 length win over just cameron as a novice

1.75 length loss to fox norton with gods own half a length back

doesn't take a long look through the form book to see this is a bit below his best

think he was a better horse back then as well and has been on the wane this season

also had quite a long season now this will be his 3rd spring run

love the horse (think tanlic's talk of him being soft is a nonsense) and wish you luck with your bet but he wouldn't be for me today
 
Grasshopper said:
Monalee is stuck-on at 9/4 with Boyles. Bet of the day.
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I thought that initially too but three times he and Al Boum Photo have met. The first twice there was a length between them and it looked like being a similar scenario in the RSA.

I'm in the camp that feels Monalee is better over the intermediate trip but on further reflection there are still doubts as to whether Al Boum Photo will truly stay 3m, albeit visually he's looked like he might need it on more than one occasion. If he's not as suited to it then Shattered Love, who also comes into this as basically the same horse as Al Boum Photo, has to be the value at 13/2, despite slight concerns about the drying ground and a long season.

What Monalee does have is his jumping and he's a joy to watch so for that reason I'd be happy enough cheering him home but the more solid bet at the prices is Shattered Love e/w IMO.
 
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I wouldn't be surprised if the ground is easier by 6.40 but the form puts Monalee, Al Boum Photo, Shattered Love and even Invitation Only within a good or poor jump of each other. I too think that Shattered Love ew is the most solid bet.
 
That has become the pattern in recent years beginning with M C Pipe declaring a horse at Sandown that had run the night before at some Northern track to keep a Nicholls horse out at Sandown years ago.
Just plain bad for racing .
Great 2 mile chase today though; Douvan , Min, Un de Sceaux etc etc.
 
archie said:
I wouldn't be surprised if the ground is easier by 6.40 but the form puts Monalee, Al Boum Photo, Shattered Love and even Invitation Only within a good or poor jump of each other. I too think that Shattered Love ew is the most solid bet.
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I honestly don't think any of them will lay a glove on Monalee. I reckon he is a class apart from this lot, and will enjoy the quicker ground more than most too.
 
Grasshopper said:
I honestly don't think any of them will lay a glove on Monalee. I reckon he is a class apart from this lot, and will enjoy the quicker ground more than most too.
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Al Boum Photo won despite David Mullins and Shattered Love is no pushover. Now Paul Townsend takes over that is an added bonus worth at least 5lbs IMO.

Monalee was beaten very easily by Percy..a bit too easy for my liking so I am sticking with the Mullins horse.
 
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