Punting advice

Danny

Danny

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Feb 27, 2013
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I've come to I suppose a bit of a crossroads in life. I turned 41 last week, my daughter is all grown up, I've just finished my mortgage on my humble abode, I still have a day job ( although still currently furloughed) that i detest to levels beyond anyone's comprehension so the scene is set to have a midlife crisis. Over the years I've been so busy working, dealing with family life, looking after a child and to some extent parents and certainly in laws ( or outlaws as I prefer to name them) that just getting through life has seemed like pushing treacle up a hill. I've always thought that if I got a break from it all and some time to myself that I'd actually be able to figure out what I'd like to do, a change in career, take up some old pastimes or just have a great moment of inspiration. I've been on furlough for about 3 months now and all I've managed is to catch plenty of sun, drink plenty of cold beer, put on about a stone, watch more or less everything on Netflix and become a world champion stroller. Ideas about a new career, zero. Moments of inspiration, nil. Desire to buy a red sports car...uggh. So what's a guy to do ? I hadn't had any urge to return to punting since I'd packed up probably 18 months ago because of personal problems. A few weeks ago I think I cast an eye over a few races and I seem to have got the bug back. Racing and punting is one thing that although I've had my breaks from it, has always seemed to be what I'm most passionate about. For a long time it was just recreational and I'd punt for a weekends entertainment and probably lost steadily over the years. Once I got into the forum side of things I started to learn bits here and there and started to improve and probably over the last 10 years a lot of years probably breaking even give or take a grand either way and two very good years where by my standards I made substantial amounts of money. It always surprised me tbh because although I don't think I'm too bad of a judge by now, my punting, staking and general mug like behaviour at times should have been enough to sink anyone but somehow I still managed to be doing o.k, the good things I did had seemingly started to outweigh the muggy stuff. So doing alright with plenty of room for improvement.

So with me looking to the future I'm certainly going to be having to work less hours, a part of me at least is hoping even for redundancy and the push that is needed to break me out of the rut I've found myself stuck in. I'm hoping at least that I'm going to have a bit more time to commit to the game. I'm also in a situation where I'm fairly comfortable financially to the point where I don't really have to keep dipping into any sort of betting bank I have for other things. So there is probably a part of me thinking I should have a good go at the game and sort of see where it leads to see If I could step up to the next level at some point or at least win enough dough to keep me in beer and sunshine for the rest of my days. Obviously if I do this I've got to at least try and cut out the muggy stuff but perhaps more importantly sort my staking of bets out so as its not so completely bizarre. I'm sure I've floated something like this out before but I thought it might be worth throwing out again. Now I've bored you with the intro to my mid life crisis I'm hoping to generate a bit of punting discussion on methods to help take me to the next step. I know there are a few older wiser minds on here than mine, and I know for definite there must be some younger fresher blood on here that might be able to update a punting and technological dinosaur with some fresh thinking. So I'll try a give us a couple of my thoughts to kick us off.

Supposed pro punters

I've seen lots of interviews with lots of supposed pro's most of them have a few lines that get thrown in. Trouble getting on. It used to be easy ( the good old days ) but its getting tougher. Tbh when I here most of them talking I think they are talking a lot of ****. Its no secret that if you are hovering over oddschecker markets pinching prices, doing the bad each ways and the playing the arbs or whatever they call it then your accounts aren't going to last long. Fine if people are making money from it and they have legions of putter onners (is that a word ?) who they can trust then more power to them but its not a realistic option for someone like myself, I struggle half the time to get my winnings off of Mothers account.

I think most people are agreed that the best way to make money punting is backing single bets only. If you are a winning punter backing singles only at bookies when they are only top price which realistically is the only time you are going to bet then accounts have no real longevity. Which only leaves you with the exchanges. Now the one positive change I've seen in betting since I've returned is the 2% commission rate brought in for everybody at Betfair which with markets running at near as damn it 100% gives you as fair a bet as you could possibly want and liquidity in fairness that certainly covers any bet I'd want to place. Whenever I hear "the supposed pros" they struggle on Betfair because by the time the liquidity is in the market the layers operating on there are so smart there is no edge. Whilst I dare say compared to the odds compilers at some of the main firms they probably are but then the likes of Gigilio and many more like him are correcting those markets for them every night as soon as they go up. I'm absolutely sure punter's like Simon Rowlands, Hugh Taylor and many more could sit at home on the laptop punting on Betfair in there undercrackers if they wished to do so and make a decent profit all year round. So I think it can be done the question is by how much ?

I'll float a figure out there that suits my lifestyle and what would make it worth my while. 20k after commission per year. Not quite as much as I earn in my current day job but enough for me to live comfortably enough these days and at least I'd be doing something I like. So just off the top of my head and my maths isn't always great the realistic turnover for profits like that has got to be nearly 4k per week and that's if you make 10% roi. Which ever way you cut it that's finding 20 good bets a week at £200 a pop and at the kind of prices I operate at I'd need a 20k bank roll for stakes that size ( by my reckoning anyhow) which is certainly a bit more ammo than I have at my current disposal. But whatever point you scale it at would anyone have any idea whether a 10% roi is a realistic goal on exchange markets as in truth I've only ever used it for bits and dabs so have no real long term figures for it. Does anyone know to people who punt full time, on horses who are exclusive to the exchanges. Alan Roddis (EC1) has been the only one I've known to claim to do so on the forums the other people who I know have done alright online have always used accounts with firms.

I have to be honest the reason I've never really ground it out in the past is it bores the life out of me and I never really saw the point to lower stakes. I never would of had enough time to generate the number of bets needed to make it worthwhile. I also quite enjoy the thought of trying to land a knockout blow, those days where you really fancy one wait a week, or a month for the moment to arrive and launch a bet big just enough to make your arse twitch and then watch it all crash and burn and spend the evening drowning your sorrows and dreaming of what might have been :). Or to bring us on to the next subject multiples.

Multiples

Most people who've been around a while would say they are a mugs bet. Me myself I've never had much luck with them or rather I have... its all just been bad :) I'm not sure how many times a last leg has let me down for 5 figure payouts but I think the worst was a horse called Mubtadi who literally got nutted right on the lollipop to do me out of 32k If memory serves it was on Pour mois Derby day, I'm always a pessimist when my horse is in a photo but I honestly thought it had won that day. I saw that replay every time I closed my eyes to go to sleep for a week. Hits only Jude was another one that sticks in the mind at Southwell beaten into second by a horse called Lucivicious a rank outsider that hadn't ever won a race in 25-30 runs. Sunnyhill boys National another. Its enough to drive you around the loop. Anyway enough sob stories I'm sure we've all got them.

The point being one guy I know who was a full time punter for a good number of years played multiples regular. He landed one in the region of 50k and several in the lower 5 figure range but putting that into context he was a heavy hitter so 50k to him although a very happy day would probably have been similar to me winning 5-10k. I once asked him straight out and seriously for some advice after he'd been at it a few years and he said to me ignore all the bollocks, throw enough ****, and hope something sticks.... as nuggets of wisdom go :rolleyes: I also know from the brief bits of Slim on here that he's a fan of multiples, I don't expect too much input from him as he'd have got two lines into this and either fell to sleep or fucked off to the pub. Also Talking Horses very own Giggsy was advising that multiples were the way to go to try and land a big hit. I do like the sound of it and its much more in line with my personality but the reality is I don't know how many more last leg failures, Mubtadi's and Sunnyhill Boy's alike my mental health could stand. If someone like Andy who when all is said and done knows his onions has been trying to whack them for 25 years and not quite pulled it off then it shows the harsh realities of actually landing the big one and for a mere mortal like me it's going to be even tougher.

Pool Bets

Pool bets seemed to be the other way to go but what the bloody hell has happened to the Tote ? It started to go downhill when Fred Done got his paws on it but how such a wonderfully simple product that could be fantastic ended up so shite is beyond me. I think the main bet that interested me with them was Trifecta's. At one time they had started doing rollover trifecta pools but from what I can see that seems to have gone kaput. I suppose its even worse atm because of nobody being at the tracks less money going in. I'd love to get into pool betting into value added pots (its a no brainer really) but it seems so badly managed and so badly advertised, with such huge deductions I think it was 27% on trifectas last time I checked it such a shame and its really not viable as it stands. As I've been away for 18 months I'm not really up to speed with what went on with it, what the latest is and if there are any plans for them to improve it. I do keep meaning to have a look into it properly. If anyone has any thoughts on it or info I'd be interested to hear it. Also has anyone got any experience playing exotics into foreign pools ? Does the Pari mutuel tend to have rollover pools? Or not that I've ever ventured into anything other than the Breeders Cup but what are the American Pool bets like ?



Right so if you haven't died of boredom or fell to sleep ( or fucked off to the pub Slim) any thoughts greatly appreciated. Also apologies in advance if its difficult to read as always my English is probably as bad as my tips if not worse :) If you did take the time to struggle through it then thanks :)
 
Actually there is just one more bit I wanted to add.

The win or e/w conundrum

I'm fairly sure that in the long run it would work out better backing win only although admittedly at times it does make sense mathematically to back e/w. The other point to backing win only, especially if you're someone who plays a lot on longer odds selections is the losing runs can be horrendously long. I'd imagine if punting in any serious capacity it would take it's toll mentally and on your decision making. I actually thought of something that might help keep accounts alive and also allow a fair stake. I was thinking of something along the lines of backing fairly small levels with the bookies of just for examples sake I'll use £10 e/w although might go a bit bigger myself but using the each way part as a break even only and using any projected profit from the place part of the bet, as a win only bet on the exchange thus trying to maximise the win slightly whilst lessening the the effects of the losing runs.

So for example if we had £10 e/w with a bookies at 14/1 at 1/5 of the odds, for a place its pays £38, the bet with the bookies cost £20 so top that up with an exchange bet of £18 win only so hopefully at nicer odds gives you break even over all on the place more emphasis on the win.

The other positive of this is that I think it stops you backing big rags e/w when you know you are only playing for place money. I.e the bigger the odds the more you would place on the win part of the bet. I've been guilty of backing big outsiders knowing they are at best playing for 3rd,4th or 5th place. The best way of placing these is imo to back them place only but there is definitely that muggy part of me that says I've got to back e/w because if it won and I've only backed the place I'd be gutted even though the chances are so remote that its ridiculous and in the long run I'd know place only on these sorts would pay better.

If I'm at that point where I'm backing a 33/1 e/w at 1/4 odds and it means that break even on the place would have me staking £72.50 win on the exchanges then its at least going to make me question whether or not I actually think its has a realistic chance of winning or whether I'm just playing for place money. That being the case I should be placing a place only bet and just have take my medicine if it does go on to win. When the day comes when you have a big priced outsider that you do feel has a genuine chance of winning then you are at least going to make the most of it when one lands.

Thoughts ?
 
Well, this provided me with a good read plus a laugh here or there. Good luck with getting replies.
 
Simon Rowlands often goes into the maths regarding ew value so keep reading his stuff.

I think Slim knows that side of it too.

About 30 years ago I was talking to a workmate about punting. He wasn't into but was following the odd nugget I threw into the lunchtime conversation on a Friday. He was quite happy to throw fivers and tenners at the ones I was suggesting but he was pretty shocked when I told him I rarely bet any more than £1/£2 on a horse and that £5 would be a very big bet for me.

He said the ones he was backing seemed to be winning more often than not so why wasn't I putting £20 or £50 on them? I replied that if I had that kind of money to 'play with' I wouldn't be putting it on horses.

A couple of other things happened around the same time. I read book by a guy who claimed to be a professional, Stewart Simpson or something like that, bragging about how his methods were profitable. It read like complete fiction to me given the very high strike rate but it gave me ideas, the big one being when you double your bank double your stake (and the opposite). I started at £1 stakes and before not too long was up to £4.

However, I decided to do the counting more seriously and discovered that when you add up the cost of the RP on a Saturday, the Handicap Book, the Racehorse (which merged and became the Raceform Udate) the form annuals and other sundry outgoings related to punting, I was maybe just covering myself.

At that point I decided to up my game and be more ambitious. I bet considerably heavier, confident in my ability, and it didn't take me too long to double my stake again. That's when things started to flatten out and I probably stayed on that level for many years, the general losing trend of singles being made up for by getting nice-priced doubles up on a good day.

I've made the point on here more than once about the value of doubles but here goes again. If you're only betting horses you think are longer than they should be you should win in the long term. If two horses are genuine 3/1 shots and you're getting 5/1 the same principle applies with the double. The true value is 15/1 but you're getting 35/1. You'll win less often because you're relying on both but your reward will be bigger too.

It's a question of whether your temperament can take the inevitable longer losing spell.

That will do for a first instalment...
 
reet hard said:
Find another job, for starters. What point is there to facing 30 years of the same drudgery?
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Well for starters I've had to stick it for years gone by as it was just needed and for a guy who has no education and no qualifications at all, at one time I was earning 40k for labouring which I'd have struggled to beat anywhere I don't earn near that now as I work less hours and I've swapped from night shift to day shift but even so its still decent money. I work in a Foundry who are rapidly automating everything, in the last 8 years we've reduced shop floor staff from 500 to 200 and at Christmas it was looking like my section would be among the next lot of casualties. If they oust me I'd get a decent payoff as I've been there nearly 17 years and they have a better redundancy package than the standard Government cap. I only finished my mortgage last month and it has been on my mind to change careers. Whilst I've been off though I've sort of wondered what I could do? I think the only thing that would appeal is something like a youth worker, the money is crap but as said that's not really an issue anymore I'd like to do something more rewarding. Problem being when your working experience has been limited to running a pub, managing a betting office and factory work followed by 17 years in a foundry it doesn't really cry out Youth Support worker does it. As for just getting any other job its going to be a tough time to get one and tbh the next job may well be just as **** for worse money. I get five weeks holiday a year + 3 service days and 8 stat, I work 5 minutes walk down the road so no commuting which I've done before and I can do every job there standing on my head. I can't sum up though how badly people get treated there and in turn what a horrible atmosphere it breeds and what over the years horrible bitter broken men it creates. Its hard to be around, a poisonous atmosphere its very hard to explain. In an ideal world I'll get paid off and find a way to convince somebody to give me a job doing something more helpful and meaningful even if I have to work for minimum wage doing the dogs body work to get myself in. It is though strange times to be starting a new career.

But you are 100% right in your statement and its something I've known for a long while but only something that recently I've had the options available to even start thinking about it. On the bright side now the hard part is over I might have another 30 years doing something I enjoy.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've made the point on here more than once about the value of doubles but here goes again. If you're only betting horses you think are longer than they should be you should win in the long term. If two horses are genuine 3/1 shots and you're getting 5/1 the same principle applies with the double. The true value is 15/1 but you're getting 35/1. You'll win less often because you're relying on both but your reward will be bigger too.
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Appreciate the response Maurice but I'm sure this bit is wrong somehow because your are forgetting that your going against the over-round twice also ? Also taking the price and beating the SP doesn't mean you're are beating the book as such because the over-round by off time can be what 125% or more so early priced bets are always on average going to beat SP as the book in general shortens. I suppose 5/1 to 3/1 is what 17% of the book into 25% I'm not sure how that equates in the overall scheme of things. I'm no expert on the Maths it is something I need to learn properly really but the only time I've thought that you are getting value is on the e/w part of the doubles with extra places on strong markets. I know Bet365 have tried to tighten up their game a bit over the past few years. At one time on the Saturday racing they were matching all best prices plus trying to match extra places offered by other bookies and trying to do it at a quarter of the odds I'm sure they were betting over-broke in every big handicap place market. I could be wrong as said I'm no expert.

Shouldn't really be trying to correct something when I'm not 100% sure myself but I'm prepared to at least put it out there and to have my pants pulled down by someone smarter in the cause of learning a bit more :)
 
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Danny said:
Well for starters I've had to stick it for years gone by as it was just needed and for a guy who has no education and no qualifications at all, at one time I was earning 40k for labouring which I'd have struggled to beat anywhere I don't earn near that now as I work less hours and I've swapped from night shift to day shift but even so its still decent money. I work in a Foundry who are rapidly automating everything, in the last 8 years we've reduced shop floor staff from 500 to 200 and at Christmas it was looking like my section would be among the next lot of casualties. If they oust me I'd get a decent payoff as I've been there nearly 17 years and they have a better redundancy package than the standard Government cap. I only finished my mortgage last month and it has been on my mind to change careers. Whilst I've been off though I've sort of wondered what I could do? I think the only thing that would appeal is something like a youth worker, the money is crap but as said that's not really an issue anymore I'd like to do something more rewarding. Problem being when your working experience has been limited to running a pub, managing a betting office and factory work followed by 17 years in a foundry it doesn't really cry out Youth Support worker does it. As for just getting any other job its going to be a tough time to get one and tbh the next job may well be just as **** for worse money. I get five weeks holiday a year + 3 service days and 8 stat, I work 5 minutes walk down the road so no commuting which I've done before and I can do every job there standing on my head. I can't sum up though how badly people get treated there and in turn what a horrible atmosphere it breeds and what over the years horrible bitter broken men it creates. Its hard to be around, a poisonous atmosphere its very hard to explain. In an ideal world I'll get paid off and find a way to convince somebody to give me a job doing something more helpful and meaningful even if I have to work for minimum wage doing the dogs body work to get myself in. It is though strange times to be starting a new career.

But you are 100% right in your statement and its something I've known for a long while but only something that recently I've had the options available to even start thinking about it. On the bright side now the hard part is over I might have another 30 years doing something I enjoy.
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Write about punting and racing? Start up a talkinghorses forum podcast - for starters? See how it goes. You seem to enjoy writing and you'll get plenty out of your system. Do it as a sideline from your current job if possible but see where it takes you. There seem plenty of outlets for people far less clued in than yourself out there.
 
Appreciate the response Maurice but I'm sure this bit is wrong somehow because your are forgetting that your going against the over-round twice also ? Also taking the price and beating the SP doesn't mean you're are beating the book as such because the over-round by off time can be what 125% or more so early priced bets are always on average going to beat SP as the book in general shortens. I suppose 5/1 to 3/1 is what 17% of the book into 25% I'm not sure how that equates in the overall scheme of things. I'm no expert on the Maths it is something I need to learn properly really but the only time I've thought that you are getting value is on the e/w part of the doubles with extra places on strong markets. I know Bet365 have tried to tighten up their game a bit over the past few years. At one time on the Saturday racing they were matching all best prices plus trying to match extra places offered by other bookies and trying to do it at a quarter of the odds I'm sure they were betting over-broke in every big handicap place market. I could be wrong as said I'm no expert.

Shouldn't really be trying to correct something when I'm not 100% sure myself but I'm prepared to at least put it out there and to have my pants pulled down by someone smarter in the cause of learning a bit more


If you analyse a race, teach yourself to price it to 100%( or close). If you make horses 3/1 chances and you are getting 5/1 it doesn't matter what the over-round is, you are getting value (if you are consistently good at your job-yes you have to treat it as a job). I turned it into a hobby after betting too many well handicapped horses who drifted massively on betfair before the off.

Also people are right, if you hate your job and you are financially secure- be happy, money is not everthing.
 
HawkWing said:
Write about punting and racing? Start up a talkinghorses forum podcast - for starters? See how it goes. You seem to enjoy writing and you'll get plenty out of your system. Do it as a sideline from your current job if possible but see where it takes you. There seem plenty of outlets for people far less clued in than yourself out there.
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Yeah I have a face for radio haha. I'm not sure I'd be bold enough to put myself out there tbh as said I'm fully aware of all that I don't know and I have known a lot of people far, far more knowledgeable than myself just on the forums down the years. I could name 10 without a moments hesitation. For many years on my previous forum I was just the forum clown, not sure I've progressed that much further than that these days but I certainly bluff it better :lol: Appreciate the thought though.
 
Danny said:
Shouldn't really be trying to correct something when I'm not 100% sure myself but I'm prepared to at least put it out there and to have my pants pulled down by someone smarter in the cause of learning a bit more :)
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I'm talking true odds versus odds taken, nothing more complicated than that. What constitutes true odds is the complicated bit and I tend to avoid getting into the nuts and bolts of it as life really is too short. I'm much more guided by my gut. If I put up a 5/1 shot it's almost certainly because I think it has a better chance than the odds imply. I've seen me jump in all over a 5/1 shot because my gut says it should be a short-priced favourite - odds-on perhaps - and avoid backing another 5/1 shot because I might respect it but my gut (based on my ratings and reading of the form) tells me it should be longer than that. It might not stop it from winning but I'm usually happy to let it go.

Again, Simon Rowlands tends to focus on the value on offer but he's much more likely than I am to go in heavily at 4/1 if he believes the true price is 7/2 or 3/1. I'm looking for a stronger opinion on my own part than that but that's probably building in an allowance for my being an amateur.
 
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Fair play D.O. I know sometimes I try to not get dragged into the value debate because I'm not even sure where I stand on it in truth and have changed my stance on it over the years. I used to back anything I thought was over priced and the more overpriced it was the better but had too many outrunning their price so to speak but not getting paid. I've sort of started leaning towards the primary overall most important factor of it may be over priced but can it win ? Any priced winner you like beats a loser and yet I still have a real aversion to backing anything under 5's and when I do it just seems to go wrong ( See Equilateral Saturday for example ).
 
Danny work out the percentages-if a horse you think should be evens (50%) is 2/1 (33%) that is 17% in your favour. If a horse you price at 4/1 (20%) is priced at 8/1(11%) 9% in your favour. I know there are counter arguements but prices are relevant, sometimes horses priced odds on are massive value.
 
Yes Jan I understand the basic concepts of value punting. Over the years I've also seen the various ways to incorporate your staking in relation to the amount of perceived value i.e the Kelly method and all variants of it. I also seen various punters even on the forums who've been very much into doing there own tissues on every race I think a guy over on TRF the few times I went for a nose on there, Ginge? That was his thing. If they can make it work that way I think more power to them. I never really saw the point of pricing every runner in a race I suppose I do so in my head to some degree. I just have a very simple sort of way of finding a shortlist of horses I think can win and then seeing what the varying prices of those are. I don't see the point of trying to price something I think has no hope. Obviously in racing strange results happen horses improve beyond reason, races get run in farcical ways, jockeys can do ridiculous things and you can get really crazy results, but how you put a price on those things is beyond me. The shorter my shortlist the more I show interest the days where my shortlist gets narrowed down to 1 possible outcome are the days I strap on the punting pants and punt like a man and the bigger the price the more I tend to put on. That has certainly had some disastrous outcomes down the years but I'm built like a weeble, I wobble but I don't fall down.
 
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I literally have nothing to contribute as I’m still a novice at racing and judging. Just nice to see you back posting Danny and hopefully you’ll be around here for the NH season. I never post round the flat season as I’m just about understanding the jumps, not going to over complicate it.

In terms of Slim, he posts usually in the winter months and Cheltenham months. Usually when the great man (Mr McManus) has disguised a monster in a handicap somewhere. Posts for around 3 months, posts about 10 winners, then fucks off for another 6/9 months.

You’ll be better bumping this thread later in the year. Goes seriously quiet on here during the summer months.
 
Danny said:
I just have a very simple sort of way of finding a shortlist of horses I think can win and then seeing what the varying prices of those are.
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That's pretty much what I do, Danny.

I would normally do my ratings, tabulate in order from the top down and then check the prices. If I have something top or near the top with the potential to improve past the top, I'm interested. After that, it's a question of whether the price appeals. That's usually the route to the longshots I put up on the dedicated thread but it's really no different to my main bets.

As Janthefish says, sometimes an odds-on shot can be massive value. People who know me away from the forum know that I put out a message just under a year ago about a 4/9 sports bet which I described as picking up money. At one point it went to 4/6 and I got involved with it again many times more heavily than I would dream of with a horse. It was soon 1/10, then 1/33, then 1/100 and then the bookies closed the market. It would take me a decent Saturday treble to get the kind of money back I got from that bet but it doesn't come around often.
 
Oh absolutely Mo and I know not a lot of people aren't keen on Harry Findlay but he made a hell of a lot of dough and lived/ is living an incredible dream of a life and most of of from punting hefty odds on shots. His one time partner in crime Bloom although a lot of horse people know him for a couple of fancy gambles on horses he owns the likes of Withold in the Ces a couple years back but it would only be play money compared to what he was doing on the Asian handicaps some years ago. Something I've certainly got to get more comfortable with if I ever do step it up a level is dealing with backing things at lower odds.
 
Danny said:
Yes Jan I understand the basic concepts of value punting. Over the years I've also seen the various ways to incorporate your staking in relation to the amount of perceived value i.e the Kelly method and all variants of it. I also seen various punters even on the forums who've been very much into doing there own tissues on every race I think a guy over on TRF the few times I went for a nose on there, Ginge? That was his thing. If they can make it work that way I think more power to them. I never really saw the point of pricing every runner in a race I suppose I do so in my head to some degree. I just have a very simple sort of way of finding a shortlist of horses I think can win and then seeing what the varying prices of those are. I don't see the point of trying to price something I think has no hope. Obviously in racing strange results happen horses improve beyond reason, races get run in farcical ways, jockeys can do ridiculous things and you can get really crazy results, but how you put a price on those things is beyond me. The shorter my shortlist the more I show interest the days where my shortlist gets narrowed down to 1 possible outcome are the days I strap on the punting pants and punt like a man and the bigger the price the more I tend to put on. That has certainly had some disastrous outcomes down the years but I'm built like a weeble, I wobble but I don't fall down.
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Broadly agree on tissues, and I've yet to see anyone price a full race accurately. Imo, there's no such thing as a 'true price' before the race, either. If a horse wins 7l in a fair race, then it was almost certainly overpriced beforehand.
Btw, having spent some years on TRF, imho "Ginge" is a fanny merchant, though few on there seem to recognise it.
 
reet hard said:
Broadly agree on tissues, and I've yet to see anyone price a full race accurately. Imo, there's no such thing as a 'true price' before the race, either. If a horse wins 7l in a fair race, then it was almost certainly overpriced beforehand.
Btw, having spent some years on TRF, imho "Ginge" is a fanny merchant, though few on there seem to recognise it.
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I'm not familiar with the phrase "fanny merchant" I presume its not meaning "fanny magnet" more as we'd put it around here "he's a bit of a wetter". Whilst I always try to stay away from criticising anyone's approach, I'm a little old school I suppose in I don't believe you'll ever win anything whilst you're afraid to lose. One day as a lion and all that.
 
Janthefish said:
Also people are right, if you hate your job and you are financially secure- be happy, money is not everthing.
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I agree completely I think I've said before I'd probably be happiest living the good life like Tom and Barbara. I thought its funny really as I've spent most of my spare time trying to win money and really I have no use for it as I'm fairly cheap to run these days. I think the fun is always in the chase I just let the Mrs take care of spending it. I once read something that the definition of being "rich" is being able to spend as much of your time doing what you "want" to be doing whatever it may be, and as little time doing what you "have" to be doing. That is the best definition I've ever heard as its no point being a millionaire and working 80 hours a week doing something you hate. Likewise there is no point being the richest man in the graveyard. Realistically money does give you options though and whilst some of the best things in life are free, there are certainly plenty of nice things or should I say experiences you can have that cost a few bob. I do like the quote from the Wolf of Wall street "There's no nobility in poverty" and I hail from an area where I know what that means. I see people cling to an attitude of hating the rich and finding some sort of false pride in the fact they are working class even though most of them don't actually work. I always worked but probably held some of the views myself at one time. I once built the furniture in my flat out of Carling cans and conti board (T.V stands, coffee tables and stuff not the sofa :lol:) so there is some parts I remember of being broke with fondness. Although it doesn't really fit with the way I am I also like the line from Wolf of Wall street "At least when I show up to face my problems I do so in the back of a limo, wearing a suit and a $40,000 dollar gold watch" I'd probably show up in a pair of joggers, my slippers and with a melted kit kat in my pocket, but I think if you have the right personality and a good head on your shoulders then extra money is never going to do you any harm.
 
I considered it 15 years ago exactly as you are now Danny. My circumstances were different in that I didn’t fundamentally hate my job, but on the other hand I wasn’t mortgage free. All my punting records suggested that I could make a good living, so I started a with a bank that was 10% of what I believed I needed to start with to have a trial run.

Three months in and I was making a tidy profit on the side of my main income, and enough profit that I could have been convinced to take the plunge. But I didn’t. I had my first proper losing run of a couple of weeks, at the point when I was sufficiently far enough in that I could feel was doing it for a living. I found myself making some bets during that period that I shouldn’t. I chased some winners rather than being disciplined enough to stick to what I was good at and using the information I was getting. Not good, and it bothered me how I would react and handle those kinds of periods when I had the pressure of doing I for real and it was my sole income.

I have a non-addictive personality which was definitely helpful, but even so I was making decisions that I usually wouldn’t. I was looking for winners that weren’t there, and as a result my profits weren’t what they could have been. So, I asked myself two simple questions. Could I be disciplined enough if there were longer periods where I wasn’t making money, and did I want to handle the pressure of the inevitable questions from my family during the times when I wasn’t.

The other issue I found was I stopped looking at racing as a sport, and the challenge of finding winners was no longer a pleasure. All the enjoyment was being sucked out of it and it quickly became a grind. I was spending too much time on form study, and I was starting to obsess about finding new angles and methods. I also started becoming irritable and withdrawn at home.

It was the latter that was the clincher. I discovered I could make money, although not in the way a regular income comes in. But I felt I was losing my love for racing. And the fact that is was subconsciously changing me, and not for the better, made it a fairly easy decision.

I still make good money from racing. I still take it seriously. I have a whole host of open bets at the moment. Somewhere in the region of 80 singles (mostly antepost), and around 90 multiples also antepost. I’ll trade a good percentage of those (or part of), before the event and lock in profits, and I’ll have the best parts of those running for me on the day at inflated odds. It’s a method that works for me and its low time and stress. I do back singles in the regular way, but usually based on information, or on a race that has a profile that fits my style. Day to day bets for me are rare though, and there are weeks that go by that I don’t bet at all.

So, I’d suggest there are some question you need to ask yourself Danny. Do you really want the pressure of making a living out of something you really enjoy? There’s a danger is you’ll no longer enjoy it. When you have to make money from it, what happens when you go on an inevitable losing streak for example? And what about interaction with other people? The normal banter you get in a workplace, will you miss it? How will it affect life with your family and friends?

Far easier to move to a simpler, less stress job, and make a good living on the side I’d suggest. There’s no real need to go all in immediately. It’s not a race. And even then, I’d suggest you do a full-on disciplined trial with a % of the bank you’d need to be full time. Keep good records and learn from your mistakes and keep repeating your strengths.

If you do decide to go full time with it good luck. It’s an each to their own thing really. And if you’re comfortable with all the questions I’ve posed, and you’ve proven to yourself you can make it work then why not.
 
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