Punting advice

Maruco that's a perfectly balanced view and tbh the first half of that mirrors exactly how I feel about it. The truth is I don't think I would fancy it full time. When my bab was younger and times were a lot tougher I'd regularly clock a 60-70 hour week and as time went on I cleared debts and started moving forward always reducing my hour a bit at a time and then switching from night shift to day shift all changes to improve my lifestyle and take a drop in money. The fact is until recently I've still been doing 50 hours a week. I have the option now when I go back ( I actually got the big call up today to return on August 10th :( ) to reduce to a 37 hour week and I'm still going to be better off than i was working 50 hours before I cleared the mortgage. I know 37 hours must seem like a full time job to most but to me I'm sure it'll feel like being part time. Also my life outside of work has got easier as we used to look after my mother in law who had dementia and she's now passed, and of course my daughter has grown up and is becoming a bit more independent (or at least she ought to be :lol: ) So part of me thinks I could just stay where I am and tbh the social aspect of the job is the only reason I want to leave. As I said over the years the place has changed its always been hard graft at times but you could have a laugh and a joke. In 2012 they got rid of a lot of the old crew a lot of decent guys but the sort of guys who weren't easily pushed around. The sort of guys they recruited after would put their head in an oven if they asked them too, There have been constant redundancies over the past few years and as such people there are always looking over their shoulder to see who's next. The worst thing was the union allowed the company to install cameras throughout the place supposedly so they can monitor health and safety incidents. However a lot of management spend their time sifting through camera footage to try and get guys a warning or even better if they can catch them doing something really wrong sack them its cheaper than redundancy and the union just roll over to look after themselves. Obviously it shouldn't be done as it isn't lawful and they just make an excuse as to why they happened to be looking at the camera footage for some other reason and they " just so happened to spot......" .That in itself isn't the problem for me because generally I just crack on anyway although its still not a nice feeling to know you are being watched or that your job is on the line every week. The problem is its created a bunch of scared men who fear for their jobs and are very quick to point fingers and tell all always trying to get one over each other. Its a weird atmosphere, the blokes there never seem happier than when some is suffering or someone is in deep ****, strange mentalities and as I said earlier its poisonous to be around. Part of me says I should just keep turning up and taking the money and take no notice of it all but its in my nature to try and be helpful and kind and just in general try not to be an arsehole but its very hard when you are surrounded by it daily.

As the guys said above its just a matter of changing jobs but with the current situation I'll have to play it by ear. I think the perfect scenario for me a bit like you say Maruco is to find a job i enjoy doing even if the money is rubbish as long as its enough to get by on I'm not to fussed and then make some money on the side punting if poss. I even said at the start if I start off like that and then see where it takes me at least I know I give it a good try. I should at least be able to have a bit more time to devote to it now than I have in previous years. When I go back to work in a couple of weeks time I'll get the feelers out to see if I get the chance of being paid off it would be nice to get a golden goodbye to be on my merry way with if not I'll just have to take the leap when I see the right opportunity.

Thanks Maruco.
 
My ex considers himself a pro punter now (with a little bit of house doing up on the side). He says he’s making a decent living although as he was always slightly economic with the truth, I’m not sure. He has the advantage that he worked in racing from the age of 14 and rode as an apprentice so can read a race better than most. He (like me) wouldn’t bother with doing ratings. He will just watch and note future winners. I spoke to him every day during Ascot and we had very similar thoughts on many selections (and oddly Jason Weaver often picks mine too!).
My own methods are looking for the obvious:
First time headgear
Change of headgear
Gelding
Wind op
Change to better yard
Decent trainer recruiting from abroad
Top jockey going to smaller meeting
Top jockey staying for last race
Future entries in maiden races (any G race entries indicate it’s well thought of)
Trainer targets races annually
Ground especially if it changes, I check to see if it handles it or is bred to
Breeding - is it well bred
Coming to race after finishing unplaced at a top meeting especially if it had been fancied there
And looking at it physically before the race, often as it’s going in the stalls
But often I will just have a hunch and rely on that
So far I’m having a really good Flat season. Didn’t back a winner until Ascot (14 there) and since then they have flowed. 3,4,5 a day during televised (ITV) meetings. I am a very small time punter so I will never be rich but it’s mainly for enjoyment. My winning streak will no doubt cease at some stage. That’s how it goes.
 
Danny said:
But whatever point you scale it at would anyone have any idea whether a 10% roi is a realistic goal on exchange markets as in truth I've only ever used it for bits and dabs so have no real long term figures for it.
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Very tough. My lifetime roi (or since 97) is in that ballpark area but i'm barely ahead on the exchange. The comm, the lack of ante-post markets and the fact that a lot of my exchange bets are top ups on bigger earlier positions with layers meaning they aren't at great prices in isolation. That plus losing nearly a grand on the deal or no deal game they had on the site before I asked them to exclude me.
 
Euronymous said:
That plus losing nearly a grand on the deal or no deal game they had on the site before I asked them to exclude me.
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:lol: I think I love you :lol:

Cheers Euro tbh my Betfair account is with in a few quid of being level which isn't bad as for the first few years I had it open I was pretty clueless and for a while I was only using it for wild ante-post theories at treble figure odds which were usually to small stakes however they add up. I did once hold about 200 quids worth of win vouchers at prices between 240 and 100's on there for Ashkazar to win the World Hurdle in my defense he did go off at 20's but I'm still not sure I wouldn't have been better off playing the deal or no deal game, fortunately for me I never realised it existed.
 
I pretty much only use Betfair for trading/laying off bets.

Obviously I avoid doing so for Sportsbook and Paddy Power bets so I can avoid being closed down. With the others it helps to keep them open because they see the losers, and not the profitable trade at the other end.

If you're going to up your volume you might want to consider it as part of your approach Danny.

On the subject of multiples, I play each way multiples quite heavily and they are a fundamental part of my betting strategy. I'll use pretty much anything down to 5/2 in an each way multiple. I'm looking for the returns on the place parts of the bet, and take the winners as a bonus. It's cost me a couple of account though.
 
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Maruco, I wouldn't be so sure that bookie A doesn't know what level of betting activity we have with bookies B, C, D and all the rest of them.

They all use the same tracking software iesnare, which among other things collects data on which other websites we visit. It would be illegal, but it would nevertheless be no surprise to hear that bookies share data so that each can have a full picture of a client's betting activity and each can know what they are dealing with.

By the way I completely agree with your advice to Danny about the fundamental difference between betting as an enjoyable source of sideline income and doing it full-time as a living. The same thing applies in other domains such as poker, snooker and golf. There are many gifted amateurs who don't make it as professionals because the mindset needed to succeed is very different.

Danny, in my opinion this sentence in your opening post on this thread needs further analysis on your part: "Racing and punting is one thing that although I've had my breaks from it, has always seemed to be what I'm most passionate about". I'm not asking for an explanation because it is entirely your own business, but you need to be clear with yourself about this. I couldn't follow racing intensively for 12 months a year without it becoming stale. Would you continue to need to take breaks, and if so how would that sit with trying to make a living from it?
 
Grey said:
By the way I completely agree with your advice to Danny about the fundamental difference between betting as an enjoyable source of sideline income and doing it full-time as a living. The same thing applies in other domains such as poker, snooker and golf. There are many gifted amateurs who don't make it as professionals because the mindset needed to succeed is very different.

Danny, in my opinion this sentence in your opening post on this thread needs further analysis on your part: "Racing and punting is one thing that although I've had my breaks from it, has always seemed to be what I'm most passionate about". I'm not asking for an explanation because it is entirely your own business, but you need to be clear with yourself about this. I couldn't follow racing intensively for 12 months a year without it becoming stale. Would you continue to need to take breaks, and if so how would that sit with trying to make a living from it?
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I don't really mind going into it here. In the early days I had my breaks when I was doing my nuts. Then it was more to do with personal problems, family with ill health and things like that. I think I learned at one time when I had personal trouble or even when I just wasn't a happy chappy for whatever particular reason I just had to stop betting completely. When I'm relaxed, happy and feeling good I make good decisions. The only time I took a break during a good spell was it 2012 ish the year Sunnyhill boy got nutted in the Nash. It was a year I'd done really well and had been making a real effort towards taking things up a level it was the best spell I'd ever had but in a period of something like 3 months I think I missed big wins by a nose maybe 4 or 5 times and and probably another 3 or 4 second placed finishers by just a neck and probably another few times through some just horrible luck in running.I was still doing alright picking up place money and when obviously I was having 3 winners in a yankee and getting the fourth nutted it still pays fairly well. I think at that period of time I was working 12 hour nights, sleeping 3 hours a day picking the bab up from school and spend every spare waking hour with my head in the form book the frustration of all the bad beats combined with the tiredness just broke me and at that time I thought there was more to life and knocked it on the head to spend time with my family. When I was younger used to fish a lot of matches and was doing alright at that, fishing the Nationals and the Winter leagues and at the time I couldn't do both, in the end I missed racing too much even though at that time I was just a mug punter or just punting for fun whatever you prefer.

As a few will already know on here after I pulled out of a group I was in with a few members, my last break come after the death of a very good mate of mine,more like my Dad tbh after a long battle with Cancer. I was very close to him and spent every night for a few weeks in the Hospice with him before the end. I've lost a lot of people in my life already friends and family through all different kind of causes from my best mate from school dying in jail when I was 19 to my mother in law with dementia to someone who overdosed to others with cancer and although all different and all sad especially watching someone go through dementia and being in and around care homes that was tough. but I always coped with it well and really tried to be as solid as I could for everyone else involved. When I lost my mate Tony, it took my soul. Not so much the losing him but in knowing that he was probably the most, honest, decent and I do mean proper, morally decent, tough, compassionate guy I've ever known and I saw him suffer and I mean suffer. Even though he was as brave as anything I've ever seen it destroyed my faith in... I don't even know how to describe it other than..."being" itself. When you see the absolute best of us go through that, someone who did nothing but help people and be truthful and strong then I couldn't help but wonder what awaits those less perfect and even more so what awaits a wretch like me. I've never been religious and to some extent I've always thought when you're dead you're dead that's it ! but somewhere deep down inside and I think somewhere deep down inside everyone we'd like to hope that there was some kind of judge who gave us what we deserve, that night crushed the last existence of any feeling I had that there was some kind of moral justice at the end of it all. Although strangely enough I've come to understand and be interested in the value of religion as a consequence.

Anyway aside from being a great guy he was also a big racing fan. And a lot of the times once we'd put our bets on we'd watch the racing together around his house. He was only a 20p Lucky 15 punter wise but we had some banter, the only place he was ruthless was on the horse racing front I could of been waiting for the biggest win of my life and in the same race he'd have 1 runner to left to go on his after 3 losers and he'd still cheer his to beat mine. If ever I won a battle he'd always be a gentleman in defeat though. He used to just pick his horses from the Sun and in the main used to try and pick ones from the front of the market but obviously the Suns tissue not always accurate. The one day he'd by mistake ended up with a 100/1 shot and it won, it was the last leg of a L15 and the only winner on it but of course he was a shop punter and got treble the odds that was one of my finest gambling memories seeing his face when he realised the price. I think another good memory was he managed to get me an owners badge for the day only at Wolverhampton for a horse called Dudley Docker which was a fantastic day in itself but was also I think one of the only times we both won punting on track.

Anyway I suppose when I stopped last time I thought it would be for a week or two, maybe a month I even think i tried to carry on at one point. I even won on my last bet but it just felt empty so the break ended up lasting well over a year. This time I just hadn't had the urge to return even whilst I'd been on lock down and furloughed I don't think I looked at a race. As said though I skimmed a couple of races the other week after talking to an old racing friend of mine and I'm sort of enjoying being back.

I think as well it may be as I've posted I'm certainly not thinking of just leaping into full time punting rather than perhaps easing myself back into the game and seeing how it goes because I've a lot of catching up to do before I even think I'm capable of winning a bean never mind a living. Also I think the pressure isn't really as big of an issue for me now as it would be for most lets say I was made redundant and I decided to just give punting a try for a while ? The fact I don't have a high flying career to start with means I haven't really given anything up or got much to lose. I could probably live not a lavish life but as I have no debts now, I could pay the bills and eat well on minimum wage these days as the Mrs works too. So lets say the punting didn't work out I have my options open to literally go and try anything else . I even had thought about being a late student going to uni and seeing if I could get the grants to keep me going although I don't know too much about it but my daughter said I could do it. As I said earlier for the first time really in life I have some options and just that alone after having been grinding away for so long is enough to make me happier than you could imagine.

Thanks Grey.

( Please no sympathy from anyone we all have to go through these things at some point.)
 
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No one will know better than yourself, Danny, what will be the right approach for you. Please stick around here though, whatever level of seriousness you are operating at in the future.

On a more general note, do people on here have targets for their punting? Rather than sitting like a fish in the stream, waiting for opportunities to come along that I might or might not feel like going for, I once decided to try and make a particular amount by a particular date. It didn't work out at all, having a target ended up completely distorting my decision making process.
 
Grey said:
No one will know better than yourself, Danny, what will be the right approach for you. Please stick around here though, whatever level of seriousness you are operating at in the future.

On a more general note, do people on here have targets for their punting? Rather than sitting like a fish in the stream, waiting for opportunities to come along that I might or might not feel like going for, I once decided to try and make a particular amount by a particular date. It didn't work out at all, having a target ended up completely distorting my decision making process.
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Re- Sticking around I'll do my best :)

I personally think having an Aim whatever ever you do is vital even just in life in general. If your doing something you should be able to answer the question, what am I doing it for ? Or at least Why ? Having a goal or a target is naturally how we operate as human beings when you're hungry your most meaningful aim is to go get a sandwich. I talk from experience when I say if you are betting to try and win money, you should have an overall aim as to why you want the money in the first place if when you win a chunk you can't think of anything you want other than another bet then possibly winning money isn't probably what you need. I know some people bet for fun or as I did in the early days just for a buzz but that is usually short lived I never really think anyone is genuinely enjoying losing. I suppose at least if you get a run for your money there is a bit of excitement during the process.

My aims have changed somewhat. I wanted to win enough money for a deposit on a house which I did in 2012. After that I thought whatever I win I'd just knock chunks off the mortgage to get it paid as soon as possible which I did. Now its gone I'm sort of thinking what amount makes a difference to my situation ? Its sort of why I think about multiples as to try and land a big pot that makes a difference rather than grinding it out and going around in circles somewhat. That said I suppose if asking the simple question of what my next aim is? It would be simply to work less and play more and as said change to a lower paid job that I enjoy more but I suppose I'd like to still carry on living well and having money to travel when that becomes a possibility again. So perhaps just grinding it out or a mix of both approaches is probably just what's required.
 
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My aim was to keep doubling my bank until I was earning as much as my salary but it stalled pretty early on, not unlike my Saturday morning amateur football team's ambitions.

We had sauntered through the uni league before joining the Glasgow & District league, starting in the third division. We got successive promotions to the top division and peaked at third or fourth, getting at one point to the midway round of the Scottish Amateur Cup.

We then went through the motions and ended up settling just off the pace in the second division and stayed there until one sad day I was booked for the first time in my life and decided to pack it in!

I reckon my punting aims have 'settled' at a level somewhere equivalent to mid-second-division. I can't be bothered knocking my pan in but still don't like losing.
 
Grey said:
Maruco, I wouldn't be so sure that bookie A doesn't know what level of betting activity we have with bookies B, C, D and all the rest of them.

They all use the same tracking software iesnare, which among other things collects data on which other websites we visit. It would be illegal, but it would nevertheless be no surprise to hear that bookies share data so that each can have a full picture of a client's betting activity and each can know what they are dealing with.
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That's true Art, but the benefit of trading is there are plenty of losers in my accounts, and bookies like losers. I'm making my money on the lay in Betfair at shorter odds.

I'm convinced it helps to keep my accounts open. If I did it transparently with Betfair Sportsbook and Paddy Power I'm sure I'd lose both accounts in a heartbeat. Why would Skybet, 365, Coral, etc close me down on that basis. They've no reason to.
 
On a slightly different subject I got stiffed the other week by a rule that seemed to have changed since I went on my break. Bet 365 who let you take prices on tricast apparently now if there is a rule 4 above 5p they just throw your price away and settle your bet at SP. I was was surprised to see one I'd landed pay a third of the price I had taken instead of being paid out minus 10p in the pound. I came to terms with the fact I won't playing many tricasts anymore.

I've been mugged off again today with a lucky 15 with Bet victor apparently they don't pay double odds one winner on a Lucky 15 anymore :lol: I mean wow I knew times were hard but Jesus wept. Have any other firms followed suit do you know ? Or are there any more daft rule changes that have happened whilst I've been away ?
 
Grey said:
Maruco, I wouldn't be so sure that bookie A doesn't know what level of betting activity we have with bookies B, C, D and all the rest of them.

They all use the same tracking software iesnare, which among other things collects data on which other websites we visit. It would be illegal, but it would nevertheless be no surprise to hear that bookies share data so that each can have a full picture of a client's betting activity and each can know what they are dealing with.
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So in the era of gambling adverts, gaming machines and the liberalisation of gambling, they actually behave more and more like the Chancellor of the Exchequers very own secret stasi, raking it in by stopping winners and then justifying this to the gambling gods through the taxes they pay back to the treasury which are badly needed.

Well, so long as they reported Clivex to the National Crime Agency for his excessive use of midget porn websites I can live with it. :)
 
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