Race of the Festival

What Race are you most looking forward to?

  • Supreme

    Votes: 1 2.6%

  • Arkle

    Votes: 11 28.2%

  • Champion Hurdle

    Votes: 8 20.5%

  • Baring Bingham (Neptune)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • RSA

    Votes: 3 7.7%

  • Queen Mother

    Votes: 2 5.1%

  • Ryanair

    Votes: 1 2.6%

  • World Hurdle

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Gold Cup

    Votes: 11 28.2%

  • Other

    Votes: 2 5.1%
  • Total voters
    39
  • Poll closed .
My only ante post still alive is an ew patent:

Cooldine 4/1 (without KS & Denman)
Tidal Bay 12/1
Barbers Shop 11/2

Happy enough i have value. It's not big money, but max payout would be €1,700, which would be welcome.
 
I think the two novice chases are the races to follow and I genuinely believe that whoever wins this years RSA will probably win next years gold cup. I happen to think that will be Long Run.

I haven't done any multiple bets at this stage but will probably chuck a couple in out of my singles which I think i've got pretty much sorted:

Arkle: Captain Cee Bee
RSA: Long Run
Supreme: Dunguib
Ryanair: Tranquil Sea
Stayers: Big Bucks
Champion Chase: Master Minded
Neptune: Peddlers Cross

Take Peddlers Cross and Captain Cee Bee out and I think i'll have £50 on the accumulator.
 
Enough to make you wonder though. If Long Run goes to the RSA Punchestowns should not be between 3-1 and 4-1 but if he goes for the Arkle 7-2 will be gold dust. Worth taking 7-2 now?
 
What price do you think Punchestowns should be (with Long Run in the field)?

I would take a look through his french form if you haven't already - he is more experienced than most horses who line up for a RSA, and the 5 year old stat is a red herring. The jockey is the only worry for me.

I read some firm were also offering 7/4 for Henderson to win the RSA, which will also bring Burton Port into play, who is definitely not without a chance (has a better chance than Diamond Harry and a much better chance than Weird Al whose form is well below the horses above him) - this is probably the best bet available on the RSA now, imo.
 
I think 7/2 is a fair price even with Long Run in the race, to be honest Gearoid, and I will be place-laying Waley-Cohen's horse as soon as I see some 1.something on the pink side.

Don't get me wrong - I am a huge fan of Long Run - I just think he would have been much better off in what isn't, imo, a particularly strong-looking Arkle. He is a very short-price for a horse who isn't guaranteed to stay, will be amateur-ridden, and is up against a proven class-act in Punchestowns (recent setbacks notwithstanding).
 
Hamm said:
What price do you think Punchestowns should be (with Long Run in the field)?

I would take a look through his french form if you haven't already - he is more experienced than most horses who line up for a RSA, and the 5 year old stat is a red herring. The jockey is the only worry for me.
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That French form will also tell you he had never been a yard over 22f until the Feltham, Hamm. The RSA trip has to be a worry, and the 5yo stat is not a red-herring - if anything, it is even more significant now that the ridiculously generous allowance was slashed.
 
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The 5 year old stat generally reflects a horse has not had enough racing - there is no need for a weight concession between a 5 and 6 year old horse. Long Run has had more experience than any other horse, and a lot of graded chase experience as well.

I don't disagree the bet (what with you having already backed him) is a place lay, as I think he is either going to dump SWC or win well; I could well be wrong, but i don't see him finishing second.

The Feltham showed he is most likely of any horse to stay - he pulled ferociously over 3m, yet still powered home of a very good yardstick. Obviously it would be better he settled better, but I don't think he has any stamina doubts, or at least any more than any other horse.
 
It possibly is harsh, granger.

I'm just not entirely convinced by the level of form this tranche of 2m novice chasers has reached. I think there is perhaps an assumption that they are top-drawer based on how good CCB, Sizing and Somersby were as hurdlers. I'm just a little hesitant about whether there is a linear relationship between their hurdles performances and their chase performances.

I could very well be wrong, but I've not yet witnessed a truly dominant 2m novice performance this season, and I personally doubt if there is much more than 10lbs between the top-twenty 2m novice chasers in the islands.

For me there is no standout in terms of class, but there might have been if Long Run had been pointed at the race.
 
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