Raven's Pass

I agree
He won very well but the form does not look good enough to make him shorter than horses like Rio de La Plata.

Myboycharlie has posted a better effort than this in the Morny and horses like New Approach ,Great Barrier Reef or Famous Name look more interesting for me than Ravens Pass.
 
Yep. I don`t watch the morning line anymore, but i`d be interested to know what reasoning Barry Dennis gave for his opposition.
 
Raven's Pass very impressive.

That wasn't barrys mismarck however, it was Bauer who was punted off the boards and also slooshed up.
 
Guineas favourite might be a bit premature but that was awesomely impressive. Clear in a matter of strides...interesting to hear what sort of time he posted.
 
Chris , did you know Ravens Pass was burning up the gallops? Gosden said the Raven had done a brilliant piece of work last week. He was sure he had improved again from his Ascot run.
The thing about Ravens Pass is we know he will stay a mile and will go on G-F ground, which cannot be said about some of the other short priced Guineas contenders.
 
The way he suddenly quickened was surely the mark of real class...even if this was a substandard grp 3.

Another big factor for me is that he is in the right hands...
 
Must have run to about 117 ish imo. Puts him right up there with the likes of Rio, Myboycharlie and New Approach I'd day.
 
The horse has a superb action, he made it look really easy which is partly why it was so impressive - he didn't look like it was taking anything out of him
 
Originally posted by milo@Sep 1 2007, 02:42 PM
Chris , did you know Ravens Pass was burning up the gallops? Gosden said the Raven had done a brilliant piece of work last week. He was sure he had improved again from his Ascot run.
The thing about Ravens Pass is we know he will stay a mile and will go on G-F ground, which cannot be said about some of the other short priced Guineas contenders.
Click to expand...
Yes and backed him and laid Maze who won the worse ever Chesham.
 
Maze got very worked up today before the race and ran far too freely as well - he's better than that result and will improve as he gets experience I expect. But the winner was truly something special imo
 
I'm not usually easily impressed by much in racing anymore but that was out of the top drawer I'm sure. He was simply faultless and they couldnt tow him along for long enough.

With regards Maze, he is built like a sprinter to me and ran like one today. I think he would benefit from dropping to 6f.
 
speed figure I get is 112 [no wfa added]

if you would like to assume he will improve the average 2/3yo amount on the clock..then his projected mature potential is 129

decent..only has to improve a stone or so on the clock before next year...

it's the old 2yo thing...we now get to that point where we have to guess if the horse improves the average amount..or he is already mature?

if he stays where he is maturity wise he's already run a mature Group 3/listed horse time..but if he did stay at that point then folk would be diasappointed next year because thats as good as he ever would be.

it may be worth looking at the breeding to see the improvement potential from 2-3yo..to try and remove a little of the uncertainty

only problem i have is that this race rarely throws up a top class one..although this did look special today
 
Somewhat against expectation, I haven't brought him out as being that fast either, although the card does appear to have had more than it's fair share of truly run races for a change, and this would impact upon on him. Also he wasn't necessarily asked to go through with a full run either, so I'd be inclined to think he'll improve about 4-5L's NTO, but then that requires everyone else to stand still.

92.55++ FWIW

It's certainly very good, but not the exceptional Teofilo type rating I was half expecting. I suspect the race was a weak renewal, indeed the first six in the nursey would all have beaten Maze (though that doesn't legislate for weight - I might work that out later)

Minted = 100.35+
Myboycharlie = 97.00++
Sharp Nephew = 94.41
Latin Lad = 94.31
Kingsgate Native = 94.17? (Goodwood)
Scintillo = 93.81
Kingsgate Native = 93.35 (no wfa)
Gothenburg = 92.64++
New Approach = 92.72
Ravens Pass = 92.55++
Minted = 92.35 (Chantily)
Myboycharlie = 92.00 (Deauville)
Rio De Plata = 91.76? (Goodwood)
Captain Gerrad = 91.67? (Goodwood)
Winker Watson = 91.58
Rio De La Plata = 90.55+
Henrrythenavigator = 90.32p
River Proud = 90.50
Kingsgate Native = 89.83
Chun Tosaigh = 89.50p
Henrythenavigator = 89.40
Captain Gerrad = 89.23
HenrytheNavigator = 89.11
Swiss Franc = 89.07
Dark Angel = 88.57
Luck Money = 88.32
Maze = 88.25
 
on the contrary Warbler..a 112 is very decent at this time of year on my figures..equivalent to a mature 129/130 horse if average improvement was forthcoming

he is the fastest 2yo I have clocked this year..haven't kept up to date though..so may have missed a fair few

I'll check your list out and update
 
Interesting prospect and i think books have overreacted a tad in the Guineas market, but probably better to have in short than be caught with your trousers down


FWIW - 114
 
Originally posted by EC1@Sep 1 2007, 05:49 PM
he is the fastest 2yo I have clocked this year..haven't kept up to date though..so may have missed a fair few

I'll check your list out and update
Click to expand...
Well if I were prepared to project him off Maze he'd earn 103.00 which would put him clear on my ratings too, but i think it's probably fair to say that Maze hasn't run his race, and wouldn't be a reliable yardstick. It's my biggest reservation about the projection method, for if you make a mistake in assessing a horses ability and incorrectly alight on an unrelaible yardstick it starts throwing everything out as the damage done by that mistake snowballs on an escalator, as it inevitably starts to impact on other ratings etc In essence one error of judgement leads to you making more if the foundations aren't right etc.

My best guess is that he's somewhere in the middle on about 97.50
 
These are just winners only using the best figure that each horse has achieved, it's not a comprehensive list, most ratings from August

112 RAVENS PASS
110 RIO DE LA PLATA
108 SHARP NEPHEW
107 MYBOYCHARLIE
106 KINGSGATE NATIVE
102 FLEETING SPIRIT [July]
100 WINKER WATSON [July]
93 HENRYTHENAVIGATOR [June]
92 FAST COMPANY
90 SCREEN STAR
85 NEW APPROACH
80 GOTHENBURG
 
The fillies - suffice to say I'm deeply sceptical of Goodwood straight course standard times. Screen Star would have been higher but for the fact she carried something like 8.8 at Redcar. I still think Natagora is the best filly around at the present, and I've clearly overlooked one on here who shoudl be on the list

* Natagora = 105.13?
Natagora = 94.82
Fleeting Spirit = 93.41? (Goodwood) possibly closer to 84.98
Natagora = 93.11
Fashion Rocks = 92.64 (Goodwood) possibly closer to 83.14
Natagora = 90.90
N'joom Dubai = 90.88
Saorise Abu = 90.17
Starlit Sands = 89.64? (Goodwood)
You'resothrilling = 89.11
Littlemisssunshine = 88.89? (Goodwood)
Elletelle = 88.11
Starlit Sands = 87.61
The Loan Express = 87.56
Sense of Joy = 87.11++
Baffled = 87.11
Aide Memoir = 87.07
Francesca D'Gorgio = 87.06
Cake = 87.00
Screen Star = 86.88++
 
Can you add Proviso to that list Warbs, also Laureldean Gale, or is it just for rating fillies who've raced in GB and Ireland?
 
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