Raven's Pass

I think Ravens pass will be really useful over 7f or 6f...I fancy the Cecil horse to beat him again should they face each other again over 1mile.
 
reading cecils comments it looks likely a 10f campaign for him so the only derby for him may be the french one

if ravens pass did empty becuase of lack of stamina he may not be as good as he looked
 
I like Ravens Pass a lot; he is probably one of the most talented horses likely to line up in the Guineas in terms of sheer ability. But I am concerned about him on two fronts now.

People are mentioning (with seeming surprise) that the trainer said the horse was not 100% yesterday. That is hardly surprising; I would imagine none of the genuine Guineas contenders are 100% primed right now. But it is this and the nature of the race yesterday that worries me….the front two were going at it from a furlong out which is not ideal just two weeks before the Guineas. Both horses also hung out to the right away from the stands rail suggesting they were putting in plenty of effort.

Also and I know some will put it down to him blowing up, but for the second race now Ravens Pass has looked the likeliest winner turning and failed to get home. He failed to get home in the Dewhurst…that was put down to the ground and now he failed to get home again yesterday. Whatever way you look at it I don’t think the step up to a mile will bring out any improvement, in fact I think it will do the opposite.
 
Originally posted by Galileo@Apr 18 2008, 09:23 AM

Both horses also hung out to the right away from the stands rail suggesting they were putting in plenty of effort.

Also and I know some will put it down to him blowing up, but for the second race now Ravens Pass has looked the likeliest winner turning and failed to get home. He failed to get home in the Dewhurst…that was put down to the ground and now he failed to get home again yesterday. Whatever way you look at it I don’t think the step up to a mile will bring out any improvement, in fact I think it will do the opposite.
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He only hung imo because Fortune decided to just push him out. He didn`t resort to the whip at any stage.

Wasn`t the race over a mile yesterday?
 
Having Course and Distance at the side of your name is beneficial innit? having a run in the bag is beneficial innit?
 
Doh….of course the Craven is a mile. I suspect the Guineas will be a much stronger test.

As for course and distance form….Newmarket is the only racetrack the horse has lost at having looked a machine else. He has also now on two occasions failed to get home over 7 furlongs and a mile. As for the benefit of a run, it can help or be a negative.

Look the horse has loads and loads of ability, but there has to be a doubt about his stamina or bottle in my book.
 
Horse get beat a short head and it's not stayed - give over Gal FFS


You'll be telling me next Soldier of Fortune don't stay 12f because got beat in Arc
 
Originally posted by Charlie D@Apr 18 2008, 10:56 AM
Horse get beat a short head and it's not stayed - give over Gal FFS


You'll be telling me next Soldier of Fortune don't stay 12f because got beat in Arc
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So what happened Charlie...why didn't he win? Who is to the the Cecil horse will not improve? Indeed he is more lightly raced….

Beaten a short head after cantering all over the field the whole way and after going to the front half a furlong out. The rest of the field were not up to it and his class could easily of got him that close.
 
So what you saying is only horses that win have stayed trip



That is a friggin ridiculous statement, and according to your logic, Vital Equine didn't stay, Dutch Art didn't stay, Duke of Marmalade did'nt stay a mile, but somehow he stays 10 furlongs, Sir Percy don't stay a mile, but somehow stays 12f and so on and so on


All these horses got the trip, but on day they were beaten by a better horse or horses, just like Ravens Pass was beaten on day by a better horse that for all we know could be the next Deep Impact
 
Originally posted by Charlie D@Apr 18 2008, 11:11 AM
So what you saying is only horses that win have stayed trip



That is a friggin ridiculous statement, and according to your logic, Vital Equine didn't stay, Dutch Art didn't stay, Duke of Marmalade did'nt stay a mile, but somehow he stays 10 furlongs, Sir Percy don't stay a mile, but somehow stays 12f and so on and so on


All these horses got the trip, but on day they were beaten by a better horse or horses, just like Ravens Pass was beaten on day by a better horse that for all we know could be the next Deep Impact
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Of course it is you who have mentioned this ridiculous statement as I have never said that…..

Charlie, I am more than willing to accept Ravens Pass was beaten by a better horse (which makes the idea of Gosden being “chuffed” somewhat strange because he won’t beat him in the Guineas if that is the case) I am even willing to believe the horse will get the mile…..it is just a suggestion or something to discuss. I am happy to debate it with you but if it is too “ridiculous” just ignore it
 
He has also now on two occasions failed to get home over 7 furlongs and a mile.
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Gal, i should have started with "if i'm interpreting the above statement correctly" and ridiculous is a tad harsh tbh

Anyway onwards


If as Mr Gosden states his horse was short on work, his horse will have been short on what is required to perform at his optimum, this would see him tire in the closing stages which you, i and everyone else saw.

He was against what could have been a slightly or much fitter horse that was at the peak of conditioning or against a better horse, but we just don't know.

It is our job to analyze what we see and read, form an opinion, argue toss (debate, discuss) about such things on these forums, , which may then result in the backing or laying of said beasts


Great innit
 
Gal


A question

New Approach has a 3lb better RPR than Ravens pass, if New Approach beats him by about a length in Guineas, will you say Ravens Pass failed to get home or that he was beaten by a better horse???
 
I still can't understand Fast Company's price. Beat Raven's Pass fair and square but 3 times the price. Shows that gossip is more important than form when it comes to the initial stages of flat season. Oooh Simon Crisford reports he's hasn't worked well in Dubai, let's make him 16/1? If there was a horse to take out of the Dewhurst, bar New Approach, it was him. Out the back, didn't travel, penny dropped. finished faster than anything...
 
Originally posted by BackHander@Apr 20 2008, 02:54 AM
Beat Raven's Pass fair and square but 3 times the price. Shows that gossip is more important than form when it comes to the initial stages of flat season.
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How often is do we have cut in the ground on Guineas weekend? Almost never - that exlains the price diff, as well as the vibes from Godolphin.
 
The way I see the Dewhurst, he gave New Approach a race. The only colt that did. He didn't run the perfect race. If you look at it, it's fairly amazing he ended up where he did. And then you have this crap from godawful about how he's working versus a home bred. The fact is, on form, he should place. And his price is merely a reflection of rumour and innuendo. Which seems to go to show that bookies are as in the dark as punters. I for one would not be lengthening a horse based on connection's analysis if the horse had shown his ability on the turf. For example, Dylan Thomas was a silly price against Authorized in the Arc last year based on trainer's suppositions. Maybe FC will get beaten a mile by RP in the Guineas but at this stage my stupidity fails to see why.
 
True to a certain extent, but ground concerns, and whether or not he`ll be the one they`ll send to France are the main reason`s for his price i would say.
 
Raven's Pass wins the Guineas if he gets the mile for me. Immense natural ability and an absolutely electric turn of foot.

I actually think a strong gallop could help Raven's Pass to settle in the early stages; he has been noticeably free through the early stages of both the Craven and the Dewhurst. Hopefully, this should more than cancel out the fact that a strongly run mile obviously takes more getting than a dawdle and actually play to his advantage. Indeed, I feel that the combination of a strong gallop and fast ground (touch wood) will be ideal for the colt.

I still have a nagging doubt about whether he'll get the mile. Though his two defeats can be excused readily enough (not fully wound up in the Craven and ground, poor ride in Dewhurst), it nevertheless remains a worry for me.

Twice Over is a very decent colt in his own right, but doesn't have the turn of foot to win the Guineas IMO.
 
Well for me Fast Company never handled the dip at Newmarket as it showed with him picking up when hitting the rising ground because he had never hung or rolled around like that in any of his other races. Some horses just dont handle the dip full stop and i think he could be one of them.

And speaking to a good friend and rider of Twice Over yesterday he did tell me he is the one horse that has given him the nicest feel since Dubai Millenium whom he rode all his career at home.

Im unsure whether a mile is Ravens Pass best trip i think he might be a 7f horse at best but his class may just help him get that mile.

New Approach is the one to back for me.
 
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