Recent form

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Hayden

At the Start
Joined
Aug 23, 2011
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6
Auditing my bets from last year not surprisingly those backed based on thier most recent run had the higher strike rate but those backed on older form returned a better ROI.

While i am not unhappy with the balance obtained between the two i am always looking to improve and wondered if other members had any views or comments on this.
 
It's very common for a horse's most recent run to be over factored into his or her price in comparison to their overall profile. Good examples of this angle would be New Approach's price on the morning of his Derby (7/1 but should have been 7/2) and Sizing Europe being available at longer odds than Woolcombe Folly for last year's Queen Mother right up to the start of the race.
 
I'd always suspected Saturday was a bad day for me after 25 years of betting, but really did not have the intelligence or inclination to do anything about it, until I actually used an outside firm. I can't find the site now, but it was a total eye opener, as I was only focussed on profit.

It can be done at home on excel, but I struggle simply recording my bets.

Betting taking Saturdays out improved my net from 1.95% to 8.4%.

There were a combination of other filters that improved it further, but I only ended up with 2 bets a year:lol:

Seriously though, after I paid for the service I kept him retained for a few months as I actually thought it was value for money.

Unless it's a horse that I watched, Saturtdays are now quiet days for me.
 
My resolution for this year will be to enjoy Cheltenham and Royal Ascot without getting too heavily involved in the betting side of it. Both meetings are so competitive that it's hard to find enough winners to make it pay.

I think the point about Saturdays is similar
 
Has anyone found other significantly negative factors, such as debut runners (under either code)? What about 2 y.o. races (nurseries) and Maidens? Are the best betting opportunities non-festival/premier meetings, midweek handicaps?
 
2yr old maidens early season can be decent betting opportunities,horses that have made their debuts in decent times and second run back in maiden company although short they are usually overpriced relative to chance.
 
You've missed 9/2 and 7/1 winners on my thread since friday,i'll be out of form by the time you sell that flat and reimbursing!!!:lol:
 
:( I can't tell you how stressful this sale has been - I've bought and sold around 10 properties up 'til now, and nothing has been so constipated as this one! I actually get my furry paws on the money tomorrow - the contracts only exchanged on Friday after the offer being made first week of October (you'd think I was flogging off a stately home and 5,000 acres, the time it's taken). So I don't mind now, as if the buyer couldn't go ahead, he's bound by law to give me the dough.

Gigs, I shall look out for your tips and follow through from next week, when I'm back in funds. I haven't been this skint since 1972, but at least I can say it was due to external forces - the recession knock-on - rather than through personal recklessness. The plan is caution for this year, with a little burst on the banjo next year, which should see a good return on what I'm planning. If your selections can help speed up the process, then I shall be one grateful old girl!
 
I always take look at the actual age of short price 2yo's on debut.

It does depend on the stable, but if the horse is actually only 21/22 months old and the opposition have a 3/4 month age advantage.

Early Bill Turner 2yo's at short prices. He does get them fit, but reputation tends to be based on a long time ago, rather than recent evidence.
 
To be honest i bet in most types of races,i do though have a preference for sprints but don't usually bother to much with older horse group races.Infact i hardly bet in any older group races, the 2yr old group races there's usually some great value if keeping track of times from the beginning of the season.
Mainly because of the amount of racing come summertime i will just mainly be betting in races up to a mile,all the distance races i avoid and only really do the form for races up to 1m4fs for ppots etc.
 
Doomster - Bill's not been the same since he trained that zebra! One might say he needs to earn his stripes again (well, one might if one wanted a coconut hurled at one's head). But actual birth dates of babies are very useful in determining the likelihood of strength, for sure. Those born this month will definitely have a full four-month advantage over those born in April.
 
Not counting any sort of info or large bets I occassionaly have, I monitored my every day betting and discovered 80% of my losing bets came later in the days racing. It definitly gets tougher as the day goes on so now I set a daily target and once it's reached I pull the plug

I am now a millionaire and am writing a book called fairy stories of racing and I'm the star :lol:

Honestly though my profits have shot through the roof since I decided to give myself a dailly target and taught myself not to bet in later races unless it's a high class meeting with form that's easy to read.
 
Why would it get more difficult to find a winner in later races? Seeing that the early races on the Flat kick off usually with nurseries, followed by a Maiden and then a Seller, I'd have thought that the later handicaps offered the more known quantities. Do you try to go through the card, then, Tanlic?

What are most people's betting systems, then? Bet every race at a certain meeting? Select one meeting per day/week? Swerve certain meetings (like the premier ones where the talent is often pretty even), swerve specific rated races?
 
SlimChance said:
Saturday is a complete no go area for me.
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I have often read this view including Sundays and bank holidays.I checked my own records over several years and found that for myself Saturdays where a good time to bet.

I dont have the figures to support but it would not suprise me to learn that the bookmakers attempt to bet to a bigger over round at these times,but i suspect the real reason that many backers do less well is more choice.

If this is correct then backers have the oppotunity to turn things round.With the former set a minimum price for your selection if its not available then dont bet.Regarding the latter if you have say only two hours to spare for form study on Saturday mornings imo it could prove more profitable to pick just two races and spend an hour on each.
 
I generally bet in races for younger horses and I avoid handicaps. Generally young horses starting out are still fit and genuine and there is less form study.
 
Grey said:
I generally bet in races for younger horses and I avoid handicaps. Generally young horses starting out are still fit and genuine and there is less form study.
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Hi Grey one of the few people i know who consistently makes it pay does the same as yourself and for simular reasons.

My own view and approach is the opposite i attempt to specialize in hcaps for older horses.My reasoning being that there is more form to study with older horses so hopefully a better understanding can be gleaned and because of the greater variance of opinon in hcaps i can back "form horses"at decent average odds.
 
I think that people tend to not like Saturdays as much because there are so many meetings and your concentration isn't as focussed..you flit from one race to another frightened you might miss something..whereas if there are only two meetings its easier to concentrate on probably just two or 3 race types you usually look at

I'll wager if you checked back ..that bank holidays are similar re succes to Saturdays just due to the number of meetings
 
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