Rhoscolyn

barjon

barjon

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I mentioned some time ago that I thought Rhoscolyn looked as though he was being prepared for a big one. If so, it looks as though the time is nearly upon us since his handicap has now dropped by another 4lbs after Saturday and is now 87 where he’d be thrown in on past form. Alternatively, his light really has faded according to reports from The Horse Watchers Syndicate:


He's just lost his way completely this year. David thinks he feels well and still does everything right at home, but he just hasn't been producing it on the track this year. If he does bounce back to form he's thrown in, in terms of his handicap mark. We'll consider putting some headgear on him and at some point he's going to want his sights lowering to try rekindling his enthusiasm. He's been a fantastic horse for us for the last two seasons, winning at Epsom on Oaks day and finishing placed in the Golden Mile at Goodwood and the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.

When they say “he hasn’t been producing it on the track” I’d say that to my eye he hasn’t been asked to produce anything yet.

Of the current entries (below) the Golden Mile catches my eye since he’s run well in it before and if he is being prepared that’s the one I’d go for. Otherwise, I’ll look for him down in Class with headgear!!

29-07-23 ASC 15:00 MOET & CHANDON INTERNATIONAL STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (2) 7f
04-08-23 GOO 15:00 CORAL GOLDEN MILE (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (2) 1m
 
barjon said:
29-07-23 ASC 15:00 MOET & CHANDON INTERNATIONAL STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (2) 7f
04-08-23 GOO 15:00 CORAL GOLDEN MILE (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (2) 1m
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I backed Stamp Hill in this 6 years ago, i had a hunch Fahey had been jobbing it for 18 months and he bolted up at 50/1

Muggins here backed Rhoscolyn again on Sat, he's deffo being jobbed, we won't get 50/1 though:D

Doesn't help broadcasting it on here either:D
 
I will follow it over a cliff but he hasnt been running good enough so far.hes beginning to look like young fire.
Hes been really struggling this year.
Orbaan at least was running decent.
 
Honesty Barjon the horse has completely lost his way.

He has run on merit all his life so where you get this crazy idea David O'Meara has lost his mind
and is preparing him for a touch comes straight out of a comic book

Good luck but what you are seeing when you watch the horse beats the hell out of me because right now he's totally lost the plot

If he runs in either
29-07-23 ASC 15:00 MOET & CHANDON INTERNATIONAL STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (2) 7f
04-08-23 GOO 15:00 CORAL GOLDEN MILE (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (2) 1m

He;ll be beaten by a furlong. You can bet the owners will want to parade their wares but David O will be shaking his head and saying up to them
 
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Tanlic said:
Honesty Barjon the horse has completely lost his way.

He has run on merit all his life so where you get this crazy idea David O'Meara has lost his mind
and is preparing him for a touch comes straight out of a comic book

Good luck but what you are seeing when you watch the horse beats the hell out of me because right now he's totally lost the plot

If he runs in either
29-07-23 ASC 15:00 MOET & CHANDON INTERNATIONAL STAKES (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (2) 7f
04-08-23 GOO 15:00 CORAL GOLDEN MILE (HERITAGE HANDICAP) (2) 1m

He;ll be beaten by a furlong. You can bet the owners will want to parade their wares but David O will be shaking his head and saying up to them
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Probably so, tan. On the other hand when I’ve watched him he’s never been put into the race at all. Admittedly, that might be because he simply couldn’t cut it and even begin to do what his jockey wanted.
 
I'm remaining optimistic about it. I don't think I've backed it this year because I've been convinced the trainer has been planning for something along similar lines to Orbaan. I definitely have looked at it just about every time it has run and wondered whether 'today is the day'.

I'm not convinced it's GOAT.

These two screenshots show his form back to the last time he showed his true ability. It was only a year, and not that many runs, ago. The other shows the same stage of Orbaan's career leading up to his 'sudden' return to form last summer.

I accept that Rhoscolyn's ratings are lower so that does raise a flag or two but the rest is generally similar. He won't get into the International off his current mark but he's in a race before that and a penalty might get him very close. If he did get in at Ascot he could win that and pick up another penalty to get him into Goodwood.

I do wonder if they've overdone it but I've also noticed the bottom rating in the big handicaps this year is lower than I've been anticipating and I note that Orbaan got into both Ascot and Goodwood off 87 so that might be the market they're working to.

Screenshot (24).png

Screenshot (25).png
 
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I hope it doesn't happen here but how many times does one that's been flagged by many come in at a huge price only to be followed by a flood of reasons why it was missed? (he said from bitter experience:().

I think this is one reason why we have such a love/hate relationship with the game.
 
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I hope they run him at Beverly it's a real crappy race and sometimes when they are giving weight to bad horses and they don't get run off their feet it encourages them.

Any golfer will tell you how he feels when he's getting his ass kicked and hirses are no different...They are much more aware of what's going on than you might think.
 
Or, if we're looking for the O'Meara darkie then Get Shirty might be 'one o those' in the Ebor. 16/1 in last year's race off 110, he was drawn right out in 24 and finished just over 3L off he winner 'Did well in the circumstances'. They've got his mark down to 101 after his last run. LWR 105.

Just thought I'd mention it.
 
yorick said:
Or, if we're looking for the O'Meara darkie then Get Shirty might be 'one o those' in the Ebor. 16/1 in last year's race off 110, he was drawn right out in 24 and finished just over 3L off he winner 'Did well in the circumstances'. They've got his mark down to 101 after his last run. LWR 105.

Just thought I'd mention it.
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Took 50/1 bet 365.
 
The significant drop in class and the return to a c/d he's already won over, strongly suggest today's the day to back him (general 13/2 at the mo.).
Good luck to his followers.:thumbsup:
 
Hardly the big one Barjon had in mind for him but the trainer is giving the horse a chance........Back him? You'd have to be totally nuts IMO
 
Yes, you've always said I'm nuts, Tanlic :lol: so I'm backing him.

He looked better last time, pushing for a challenge as the race developed but eased off once the jockey realised he wasn't making any further progress.

He does look GATG but, as reet says, this is a huge drop in class and that last race was won by a stablemate carrying 10-2. He carries over 10st here against really moderate opposition. He'd only get a 3lbs penalty, though, which won't really help him for either the International on Saturday or the Golden Mile but he has time to get an extra couple of pounds between now and Goodwood (for which we know O'Meara is preparing at least a couple) but the limit there is something like 20 compared to 29 at Ascot.

Still, there will be £50k races in the coming weeks and he can always harvest one or two of them if he does get back to some kind of form.

I think today is worth the risk to modest stakes.

Edit - there's money for him, 6/1 tops and blue pretty much across the board.
 
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Tbh there's money for most that are put up here, and probably anywhere on the net.
Unlike Fist, I think he's got a major chahce, Hollie's mount could be dangerous but has a lousy draw.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, you've always said I'm nuts, Tanlic :lol: so I'm backing him.

He looked better last time, pushing for a challenge as the race developed but eased off once the jockey realised he wasn't making any further progress.

He does look GATG but, as reet says, this is a huge drop in class and that last race was won by a stablemate carrying 10-2. He carries over 10st here against really moderate opposition. He'd only get a 3lbs penalty, though, which won't really help him for either the International on Saturday or the Golden Mile but he has time to get an extra couple of pounds between now and Goodwood (for which we know O'Meara is preparing at least a couple) but the limit there is something like 20 compared to 29 at Ascot.

Still, there will be £50k races in the coming weeks and he can always harvest one or two of them if he does get back to some kind of form.

I think today is worth the risk to modest stakes.

Edit - there's money for him, 6/1 tops and blue pretty much across the board.
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In the original weights for the Golden Mile, he's allotted a mark 0f 91. His current mark is 87. Forgive me for not knowing but would he run in the Mile with his original 91 (+any pens) or off his current 87?
 
Good point, yorick. He'll be off 91, which I should have clarified, and a pen would take him up to 94 although I'm still not sure that would make the cut, which is why I suggested a second win for a further 3lbs which would probably guarantee a place, as he'd be in the top 24 barring others picking up penalties.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, you've always said I'm nuts, Tanlic :lol: so I'm backing him.

He looked better last time, pushing for a challenge as the race developed but eased off once the jockey realised he wasn't making any further progress.

He does look GATG but, as reet says, this is a huge drop in class and that last race was won by a stablemate carrying 10-2. He carries over 10st here against really moderate opposition. He'd only get a 3lbs penalty, though, which won't really help him for either the International on Saturday or the Golden Mile but he has time to get an extra couple of pounds between now and Goodwood (for which we know O'Meara is preparing at least a couple) but the limit there is something like 20 compared to 29 at Ascot.

Still, there will be £50k races in the coming weeks and he can always harvest one or two of them if he does get back to some kind of form.

I think today is worth the risk to modest stakes.

Edit - there's money for him, 6/1 tops and blue pretty much across the board.
Click to expand...

He's 13/2 into 9/2 4/1 in places but I doubt if it's real money. WH are so confident he will lose they are offering 1/1 the first 3 home and that tells me more than any blue lines
 
reet hard said:
Tbh there's money for most that are put up here, and probably anywhere on the net.
Unlike Fist, I think he's got a major chahce, Hollie's mount could be dangerous but has a lousy draw.
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Really did you wantch hs recent run. He went faster to the start than he did in the race. Nolan gave him more than one smack after making sure he was well blanced and go absolutely no responce..........the horse is gone mate and this is a desperate attempt to try and salvage something.
 
Smacks of both Zozimus and Charging Thunder in recent days. Bookies know that all of us (and 99% of the rest of the internet) will have been looking at Rhoscolyn and thinking what we're thinking (has to win, could p1ss this at his best with eyes shut, then win 3 Class 2s in the next two months, etc etc etc).

Ofc, one of them will win one of these races. And almost certainly one or more will win or finish close up in one or more Class 2s in the coming weeks. But market moves (perhaps) are more likely to be engineered than real.

Observation - both CH and Zozimus might well have had their chances compromised by going off in front (though equally it may have been the headgear, wink wink). Rhosclyn's gonna be harder to work out based on that angle, has run well (enough to win this) from midfield, back, and when prominent.
 
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I won’t know whether to laugh or cry if he wins today :). Whether he does or not I’ll still regard it as a prep race unless he’s absolutely abysmal - in which case it’ll look as though tan may be reading it right. Carrying some pennies, anyway.
 
Rhoscolyn hasn't been declared for the International on Saturday. Off 91, he'd probably make the cut as he'd be #33 in a max field of 29. If something similar happens at Goodwood he could get in with a 3lbs pen.

It seems to be a more common occurrence this season that lower-rated horses are making the cut in big handicaps.
 
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