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Road to the 2022 Champion Hurdle

barjon said:
As I said earlier, top horses do not do time trials, they race to beat the opposition and run the time they need to do that. Often they beat the opposition by just a length or two when they could have done so by ten times that amount. Often, too, they beat the opposition by a country mile because that’s where they get to when in their racing rhythm. The champions are those who beat off all that can be thrown at them in the top races where all the runners are likely to be at their peak fitness and preparedness. Some champions have it easy because the opposition is not so hot and you are left to guess how they would have got on if they had faced red-hot opposition as some have had to do.
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Times are only part of the puzzle. That said, the Fly won the two slowest Champions of the 5 he ran in. Clearly pace/ground dictate the outcome.
 
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The first day of Cheltenham 2013 was nearly called off, but the authorities let the ground recover for an extra 30 minutes - hence the Supreme started late. There had been a deep frost overnight (I was there for the first two days, it was fvckin freezing). The consensus by the end of the day is that horses in the Supreme had by far the better of the ground conditions. The ground had a good churning by the time The Fly was winning his second CH two hours later. Just applying some context to the relative times.
 
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Len Madeiros said:
The consensus by the end of the day is that horses in the Supreme had by far the better of the ground conditions. The ground had a good churning by the time The Fly was winning his second CH two hours later. Just applying some context to the relative times.
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Clearly helped the Fly reverse the result from the year before.
 
If I gave you guys £50 for a free bet in this years Champion Hurdle, and you had to use the money in this race, would you back Honeysuckle at 1/2 or be tempted by something each way?

I know Honeysuckle is a wonder mare and the most likely winner, but Epatante looks rock solid each way material this year.

Seems like she's been around forever but she's only just turned 8 years of age. Her strike rate over hurdles is 8/12 and once or twice when beaten she hasn't been right.

I think if it was me I'd rather have £25 each way on Epatante at 10's than £50 win on Honeysuckle, but what does everyone else think?

Glory And Honour franked the Christmas Hurdle form well enough yesterday.

Epatante has a good few pounds to find even on last years running but she's only ran twice this season, winning both races and maybe Nicky Henderson is the type of man to unlock a bit more from Epatante.

Basically I feel the idea she won't be out the first three is an even bigger certainty than Honeysuckle to actually win the race... so for this reason I'd have my virtual 25 each way on her.
 
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Marb said:
If I gave you guys £50 for a free bet in this years Champion Hurdle, would you back Honeysuckle at 1/2 or be tempted by something else each way?

I know Honeysuckle is a wonder mare and the most likely winner, but Epatante looks rock solid each way material this year.

Seems like she's been around forever but she's only just turned 8 years of age. Her strike rate over hurdles is 8/12 and once or twice when beaten she hasn't been right.

I think if it was me I'd rather have £25 each way on Epatante at 10's than £50 win on Honeysuckle, but what does everyone else think?

Glory And Honour franked the Christmas Hurdle form well enough yesterday.
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Considering its only 3 places at the minute I cant see how she could be considered rock solid to place, €50 on Honey to win potential retiurns €75, €25 e/w on Epatante returns €70 for a place. THe quest ion you then need to consider is how likley is it that Epatante could actually win.

Honesuckle with a ROI of 150% for me every day of the week and twice on a Tuesday.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
Considering its only 3 places at the minute I cant see how she could be considered rock solid to place, €50 on Honey to win potential retiurns €75, €25 e/w on Epatante returns €70 for a place. THe quest ion you then need to consider is how likley is it that Epatante could actually win.

Honesuckle with a ROI of 150% for me every day of the week and twice on a Tuesday.
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haha fair enough. You'll be 5 euros up on me if Honeysuckle wins and Epatante places.

But like you say, what if the unthinkable happens....:)

I feel a similar situation brewing in the Ryanair, where I think Shan Blue is an each way certainty against Allaho with a clear round.

I've updated my blog entry on such matters earlier today.

A game of opinions eh.
 
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Len Madeiros said:
The first day of Cheltenham 2013 was nearly called off, but the authorities let the ground recover for an extra 30 minutes - hence the Supreme started late. There had been a deep frost overnight (I was there for the first two days, it was fvckin freezing). The consensus by the end of the day is that horses in the Supreme had by far the better of the ground conditions. The ground had a good churning by the time The Fly was winning his second CH two hours later. Just applying some context to the relative times.
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Now that's the kind of input needed that one can't take into consideration if not in the form book
 
It never ceases to amaze me how this thread descends into a shitshow every single year without fail.
 
Marb said:
If I gave you guys £50 for a free bet in this years Champion Hurdle, and you had to use the money in this race, would you back Honeysuckle at 1/2 or be tempted by something each way?

I know Honeysuckle is a wonder mare and the most likely winner, but Epatante looks rock solid each way material this year.

Seems like she's been around forever but she's only just turned 8 years of age. Her strike rate over hurdles is 8/12 and once or twice when beaten she hasn't been right.

I think if it was me I'd rather have £25 each way on Epatante at 10's than £50 win on Honeysuckle, but what does everyone else think?

Glory And Honour franked the Christmas Hurdle form well enough yesterday.

Epatante has a good few pounds to find even on last years running but she's only ran twice this season, winning both races and maybe Nicky Henderson is the type of man to unlock a bit more from Epatante.

Basically I feel the idea she won't be out the first three is an even bigger certainty than Honeysuckle to actually win the race... so for this reason I'd have my virtual 25 each way on her.
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If you gave me 50 quid I would call Govan Police station and ask to be put through to the serious crime squad division commander :lol:
 
Tanlic said:
If you gave me 50 quid I would call Govan Police station and ask to be put through to the serious crime squad division commander :lol:
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On a serious note 50 quid ew if placed your return would be 75 for 50 invested..
Back Honeysuckle on the nose seems a better option to me with much less chance of failure
 
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7lbs across the board is daft. I would have a scale:

2lbs Flat from 5f - 10f
3lbs Flat from 11f+

5lbs Hurdles up to 2m4
7lbs Hurdles 2m5+

7lbs Chases up to 2m1
10lbs Chases from 2m2 to 3m
12lbs Chases over more than 3m
 
Euronymous said:
7lbs across the board is daft. I would have a scale:

2lbs Flat from 5f - 10f
3lbs Flat from 11f+

5lbs Hurdles up to 2m4
7lbs Hurdles 2m5+

7lbs Chases up to 2m1
10lbs Chases from 2m2 to 3m
12lbs Chases over more than 3m
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I definitely agree in principle with a sliding scale for distances.
 
What do we think Appreciate Its SP will be? Debating backing him to cover my numerous Honeysuckle bets should something go tits up.

Whether to back now or wait for day.
 
Appreciate It isn't declared for the Red Mills Hurdle, which was just about the last opportunity to get a race into him before Cheltenham.

I still think he is a million to get to the Festival, and if you were to back him now, you'd best do it on an NRMB/NRNB basis.
 
barjon said:
Same would apply to handicaps generally, wouldn’t it?
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It already does, in the sense that most ratings compilers use different values per pound at the different distances.

For example, I use the following values on Good ground and faster:

5f 3.6lbs per length
6f 3lb
8f 2.25
10f 1.8
12f 1.5
16f 1.1

I usually tweak them slightly for courses, eg for 5f at Epsom I'm more likely to tweak it to 3.8lbs or even 4lbs if the evidence warrants it.

I also tweak the values [downwards] for softer ground form.
 
Grasshopper said:
Appreciate It isn't declared for the Red Mills Hurdle, which was just about the last opportunity to get a race into him before Cheltenham.

I still think he is a million to get to the Festival, and if you were to back him now, you'd best do it on an NRMB/NRNB basis.
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Hadn't he already said the horse was going straight there?
 

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