Couldn't find a thread for this so as i've had a couple of early goes at the race I thought I would start one.
Any preview of the Derby has to start with Frankel. Hugely impressive in his two year old career (Should be clear best 2yo but that's another debate) and according to Cecil he is settling better in his work this year which gives you hope he will dispel any stamina doubts; class is clearly not an issue.
Bred on the same Galileo/Danehill mare cross as both Teofilo and Roderic O'Connor, who was second in last years Dewhurst behind Frankel. That doesn't help us too much given that none of them have been seen as a 3yo but both Frankel and Roderic O'Connor won over a mile as a 2yo which requires a certain amount of stamina. The Luca Cumani trained Cima De Triomphe was by Galileo out of a Danehill mare and he won an Italian Group 1 over 11f. He was from a family of milers and his mother was a miler. Frankel's dam Kind was a sprinter but the rest of that family is chock full of middle distance horses (Powerscourt) and Frankel's half brother Bullet Train won the Lingfield Derby trial over 11f. That was a decent race but i'm not convinced he (or Cima De Triomphe for that matter) got 12f and being by Sadler's Wells and Frankel being by Galileo I wouldn't bank on that making the difference in stamina terms.
At this stage I think Frankel is a solid bet for the Guineas but i'm not convinced he'll stay 12f and so on that basis i'm willing to look elsewhere, particularly for an antepost bet.
Seville is a lovely horse from the O'Brien yard. No worries on his breeding and he will get the trip based on that and both his physique and running style. I'm just not convinced he will quite have the class. He was easily held by Dubai Prince on debut (Unfancied at 12/1) and I thought Casamento had him well covered in the RP Trophy. Derby winners just don't lose twice at two and in fact only New Approach in the last ten years had lost more than once prior to the Derby and that was in the English and Irish Guineas.
Carlton House is priced up based on a 9 length maiden win and his trainer. His maiden win is decent form but his 9 length win has to be taken in context - The other maiden on the card was only 0.11 seconds slower and the winner of that is not even entered in the Derby. The one length second is but its name your price. Stoutey has the pedigree but not for me thanks...
Amazingly (And surely stupidly) neither Casamento or Dubai Prince are entered in the Derby yet they've been brought back to England when they are entered in the Irish Derby? The Sheikh just laughs off massive supplementary fees though so I could see either of these turning up and I think both have chances. Breeding suggests Dubai Prince has a better shout than Casamento (His half brother Inler was a sprinter through and through and Casamento has shown plenty of toe) and he's the one I prefer. There are no prices on the exchanges for them and I wouldn't back them anyway given they have to be supplemented. If they do turn up though I might have a small interest in Dubai Prince as I also think Mr Al Zarooni could turn round Godolphins fortunes this year.
Recital is another from the O'Brien stable and he certainly has a chance but he's too short for me at this stage.
So as none of those at the top of the betting really excite me as an ante post proposition i'm going to throw in a couple from left field who are big prices and although they might not turn up, certainly have credentials on paper. If they are there on the day they will certainly be much shorter.
The first is Farrh from the Godolphin stable. He was due to face Frankel at Doncaster on his second run but was withdrawn after being unruly at the start. Real shame we didn't get to see him run that day and it certainly calls his temperament into question but Godolphin gave him the time off and i'm hoping he will have matured. His debut win was visually, mightily impressive (Watch the video - It's a very taking debut) and the form is reasonable (The third was 3rd to King Torus in a G2 prior to that - The second and fourth were not much good). In truth I just liked his way of going that day and being by Pivotal out of the 12f Group 1 winning German mare Gonarda (Who beat Collier Hill in one of her Group 1's) I think he'll get the trip fine. He's 33's with some bookies but much bigger on the exchange.
My second selection (Wild stab in the dark) is Pour Moi. Owned by Michael Tabor, he was in France last year with Andra Fabre but it looks like he is now under O'Brien's care. His debut isn't much to get excited about but he is closely related to Gagnoa and is by the pre-eminent Derby Sire Montjeu so his breeding is. At big prices on the exchanges he could be another to come from left field.
All in all I think the Derby this year and at this stage has a very open look to it outside of Frankel. Given his price and the concerns about the trip expressed both by his trainer and through his breeding, I think you can look elsewhere for a darker horse at bigger prices.
Any preview of the Derby has to start with Frankel. Hugely impressive in his two year old career (Should be clear best 2yo but that's another debate) and according to Cecil he is settling better in his work this year which gives you hope he will dispel any stamina doubts; class is clearly not an issue.
Bred on the same Galileo/Danehill mare cross as both Teofilo and Roderic O'Connor, who was second in last years Dewhurst behind Frankel. That doesn't help us too much given that none of them have been seen as a 3yo but both Frankel and Roderic O'Connor won over a mile as a 2yo which requires a certain amount of stamina. The Luca Cumani trained Cima De Triomphe was by Galileo out of a Danehill mare and he won an Italian Group 1 over 11f. He was from a family of milers and his mother was a miler. Frankel's dam Kind was a sprinter but the rest of that family is chock full of middle distance horses (Powerscourt) and Frankel's half brother Bullet Train won the Lingfield Derby trial over 11f. That was a decent race but i'm not convinced he (or Cima De Triomphe for that matter) got 12f and being by Sadler's Wells and Frankel being by Galileo I wouldn't bank on that making the difference in stamina terms.
At this stage I think Frankel is a solid bet for the Guineas but i'm not convinced he'll stay 12f and so on that basis i'm willing to look elsewhere, particularly for an antepost bet.
Seville is a lovely horse from the O'Brien yard. No worries on his breeding and he will get the trip based on that and both his physique and running style. I'm just not convinced he will quite have the class. He was easily held by Dubai Prince on debut (Unfancied at 12/1) and I thought Casamento had him well covered in the RP Trophy. Derby winners just don't lose twice at two and in fact only New Approach in the last ten years had lost more than once prior to the Derby and that was in the English and Irish Guineas.
Carlton House is priced up based on a 9 length maiden win and his trainer. His maiden win is decent form but his 9 length win has to be taken in context - The other maiden on the card was only 0.11 seconds slower and the winner of that is not even entered in the Derby. The one length second is but its name your price. Stoutey has the pedigree but not for me thanks...
Amazingly (And surely stupidly) neither Casamento or Dubai Prince are entered in the Derby yet they've been brought back to England when they are entered in the Irish Derby? The Sheikh just laughs off massive supplementary fees though so I could see either of these turning up and I think both have chances. Breeding suggests Dubai Prince has a better shout than Casamento (His half brother Inler was a sprinter through and through and Casamento has shown plenty of toe) and he's the one I prefer. There are no prices on the exchanges for them and I wouldn't back them anyway given they have to be supplemented. If they do turn up though I might have a small interest in Dubai Prince as I also think Mr Al Zarooni could turn round Godolphins fortunes this year.
Recital is another from the O'Brien stable and he certainly has a chance but he's too short for me at this stage.
So as none of those at the top of the betting really excite me as an ante post proposition i'm going to throw in a couple from left field who are big prices and although they might not turn up, certainly have credentials on paper. If they are there on the day they will certainly be much shorter.
The first is Farrh from the Godolphin stable. He was due to face Frankel at Doncaster on his second run but was withdrawn after being unruly at the start. Real shame we didn't get to see him run that day and it certainly calls his temperament into question but Godolphin gave him the time off and i'm hoping he will have matured. His debut win was visually, mightily impressive (Watch the video - It's a very taking debut) and the form is reasonable (The third was 3rd to King Torus in a G2 prior to that - The second and fourth were not much good). In truth I just liked his way of going that day and being by Pivotal out of the 12f Group 1 winning German mare Gonarda (Who beat Collier Hill in one of her Group 1's) I think he'll get the trip fine. He's 33's with some bookies but much bigger on the exchange.
My second selection (Wild stab in the dark) is Pour Moi. Owned by Michael Tabor, he was in France last year with Andra Fabre but it looks like he is now under O'Brien's care. His debut isn't much to get excited about but he is closely related to Gagnoa and is by the pre-eminent Derby Sire Montjeu so his breeding is. At big prices on the exchanges he could be another to come from left field.
All in all I think the Derby this year and at this stage has a very open look to it outside of Frankel. Given his price and the concerns about the trip expressed both by his trainer and through his breeding, I think you can look elsewhere for a darker horse at bigger prices.
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