Road to the Epsom Derby 2011

World Domination made a highly impressive debut yesterday. The time was very good and his emergence will make it much easier for connections to resist running Frankel in the Derby.

Frankel looks less and less a middle distance horse every time he runs.
 
Aragorn said:
Seville is a lovely horse from the O'Brien yard. No worries on his breeding and he will get the trip based on that and both his physique and running style. I'm just not convinced he will quite have the class. He was easily held by Dubai Prince on debut (Unfancied at 12/1) and I thought Casamento had him well covered in the RP Trophy. Derby winners just don't lose twice at two and in fact only New Approach in the last ten years had lost more than once prior to the Derby and that was in the English and Irish Guineas.
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Seville is the horse I'm most interested in at this stage. Given his pedigree it was some feat for him to get as close as he did to Casamento and Dubai Prince. We'll only see the best this animal has to offer when he runs over the full Derby trip. High Chaparral won his RP Trophy on heavy after getting beat in his first race and surely the difference in ground conditions between that race and the last renewal is the only thing stopping Seville having the same record. I'm not bothered then that he's already lost twice - AOB puts his 2yo's in the tough races and so sometimes they won't have that unblemished record - if the horse was handled by Stoute he'd have won a maiden over a mile on his only start.
 
If a horse isn't quick enough that a mile isn't enough for him at 2, you can bet your life he will be too slow at 3 to enter Derby calculations.
 
Thats spot on Hamm. Hard to think of many derby winners that fit that profile

I really dont think it was a great renewal of the RPT either
 
gus said:
World Domination made a highly impressive debut yesterday. The time was very good and his emergence will make it much easier for connections to resist running Frankel in the Derby.
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There were a few nice perfomances over the weekend but this looked very good. 8/1 seems very fair given the time and performance, half tempted to back him.

Hope they swerve the race with Frankel.
 
I would rather Roderic O'Connor for the Derby than Seville or Recital. I agree with Hamm, if you're certain a horse will stay 12f it's probably not fast enough. I don't think Seville will win a Group 1 at any distance this season. Recital remains potentially very good.
 
Will Roderic definitely stay? He actually reminds me of Horatio Nelson for some reason, and that horse seemed to be neither her nor there distance wise. Lovely horse though. Still, do Ballydoyle realistically prepare their Derby horses by targetting them at the Guineas? You'd be worried they'll run him in that, then the Irish version (they'll think they have plenty others for the Derby).

I thought Recital looked a little awkward the last day (as well as being given a funny ride).

If Casamento was with another trainer I'd have backed him by now.

World Domination worth a bet at 10s.
 
Is there 10s still available? At least with World Domination you know for certain it's going to at the very least two runs, most likely the Dante than the Derby. With a few at the top of the betting you're guessing if it's their aim never mind are they good enough.
 
Agree Gearoid - why I never back an O'Brien horse antepost for the Derby - just no way to know.

Not sure is 8s value in that he is only an impressive maiden winner, and there are plenty of them. On the other hand, what else is there at the moment for the Derby (outside the O'Brien runners), so 8s could be worth a bet?

Nathaniel goes for the Chester Vase.

Can't think of anything else.

What about Carlton house?
 
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Stoute has Carlton House. Beat Yaseer by 9l last season and he is entered in the Derby. He is 10s best price.

He also has Sea Moon for the race, who caught my eye last season. Not sure how he is doing though, as he is unpriced for the Derby (although entered for the DAnte, so not dead).
 
I tend to agree with Gamla Stan that 8/1 is a possible bet at this stage. Yaseer did Carlton House's form no harm just failing to get up on the line for 3rd in the Dante.
 
World Domination has been given a rate of 100P by Timeform.
At this moment I think he is a bad betting proposition for the Derby at those odds.
 
The question is how much has the hype before he even ran affected how people (or more the market) are seeing his actual chance in the Derby.

I always like making a likely field before deciding what is or isn't value and it's very hard to do that at this stage.
 
Does the big P not mean Timeform expect a great deal of improvement is possible? I just think his plan is laid out so he's entitled to be relatively short. If he were to line up im the Dante with an SP of around 3/1 what price would you expect a bookmaker to lay the Dante/Derby double?
 
Is it usual to have so many maiden winners (World Domination and Carlton House) and doubtful stayers (Roderic O'Connor and Frankel) at the top of the betting for the race.

Has anyone mentioned Saamidd yet? By Street Cry out of a Galileo mare. 10f pedigree, but....
 
Bar the Bull said:
Has anyone mentioned Saamidd yet? By Street Cry out of a Galileo mare. 10f pedigree, but....
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240Lbluebin.jpg
???
 
If he were 5/2 in the Dante, he would need to be a ridiculous price in the Derby for the 8/1 to be value (presuming of course he isn't placed in the dante and wins the Derby).

5/2 in the Dante and 6/4 in the Derby (he won't be) equate to 8/1. Therefore, I make the 8/1 absolutely shocking value.
 
Hamm said:
If he were 5/2 in the Dante, he would need to be a ridiculous price in the Derby for the 8/1 to be value (presuming of course he isn't placed in the dante and wins the Derby).

5/2 in the Dante and 6/4 in the Derby (he won't be) equate to 8/1. Therefore, I make the 8/1 absolutely shocking value.
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I won't argue with much of that. I just wonder if you like World Domination at this stage could you risk him winning the best trial without being on at 8/1 for the Derby.
 
I am perfectly willing to pass up the opportunity of backing World Domination for the Derby at 8/1.

If you think backing once raced maiden winners to win the richest 3yo race of the year at that price is a good idea, then good luck to you.
 
I'm just playing Devil's advocate!

Would a straight bet at 5/2 (presuming that is the shortest he could be if Carlton House and 1/2 AOB horses turn up) and put winnings on Derby (were he to win the dante) be the way to go?

You should get 12s minimum.
 
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I'm not one for sexy horses from sexy stables usually but the same argument applies as on the Frankel thread, given the opposition at this stage, I think 8/1 is a fair enough price. The time of his winning race on Saturday for a debutant is very quick and he's in the right hands and as Gearoid says, he's certain to go down the Derby route. Frankel is 4/1 for the race yet Cecil has said last year he probably won't stay the trip.

Agree with Gearoid, if you like the horse then not being on at 8s at this stage isn't a great proposition.
 
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