Road to the Triumph Hurdle 2021

[Desert Orchid]

I nearly choked on my roll and sausage and brown sauce this morning as I was perusing the results from Fairyhouse on Sunday.

A quick glance at the comparative times of the four races run over the same CD (two miles) had me grabbing my calculator and feverishly tapping in the numbers.

As a result I have gone in very heavily ante-post on Zanahiyr at 5/1 for the Triumph Hurdle.

I had no idea he was favourite as it isn't a market I was following and my first instinct was to hold off but a quick double-check on my figures bolstered confidence.

I don't recall ever giving a juvenile such a high time rating.

Not even Our Conor.

I'll delve a bit more into things during the next few hours, other chores permitting, but I reckon this is a monster.

 

[wilsonl]

At the risk of sort of after timing (though I did text member Flaggers straight after) I managed to get 14/1 5 minutes after he'd crossed the line. They'd cut him to 8s soon after

He looked seriously good but the CP horse could be pretty good too.

Presumably you weren't watching RTV at the time then because what got me more enthused was Ruby's reaction. He was incredibly impressed and you could tell that Closutton thought quite a bit of the second, if there was a second.

 

[Desert Orchid]

At the risk of sort of after timing (though I did text member Flaggers straight after) I managed to get 14/1 5 minutes after he'd crossed the line. They'd cut him to 8s soon after

He looked seriously good but the CP horse could be pretty good too.

Presumably you weren't watching RTV at the time then because what got me more enthused was Ruby's reaction. He was incredibly impressed and you could tell that Closutton thought quite a bit of the second, if there was a second.

I'm lucky if I can remember what I was doing yesterday, let alone last Sunday, Wilsonl , but it wouldn't have been watching RTV. If I haven't looked at the card in advance I tend not to watch the racing at all.

Just remembered - I was rocking back and forth with my thumb in my mouth watching a poor stream of a poor Celtic team failing to put together any more than a handful of cohesive moves against a bunch of sheepshaggers.

 

[Frankel]

He looked seriously impressive. Looked even better when seeing the times as you say.

And he's a Nathaniel. Boootiful!

 

[Slim]

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/se...h-following-remarkable-fairyhouse-performance

 

[Frankel]

Yeah saw that too. Very enlightening breakdown.

 

[Slim]

Do we need to take 5s now? There will be so many other horses to run. Would rather bet him at 5/2 closer to the race.

 

[Diamond Geezer]

....and what happens if Paros, for example, comes out and runs a blinder at the weekend ? Even if I did bet I wouldn't be taking a price on any Triumph Hurdle runner at this stage of the seasson.

 

[Slim]

....and what happens if Paros, for example, comes out and runs a blinder at the weekend ? Even if I did bet I wouldn't be taking a price on any Triumph Hurdle runner at this stage of the seasson.

Look he could we end up EVS but it is a very blind market right now. It feels like you maybe are getting 5s about something that should be a 7/2 shot right now.

 

[Desert Orchid]

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/se...h-following-remarkable-fairyhouse-performance

That graphic is incredible.

In the hcap hurdle, which I used as my guide because the leaders weren't involved at the finish, suggesting the pace was strong, they haven't been finishing all that fast either.

It suggests Zanahiyr was running on a concrete strip the others didn't have access to! And he beat an odds-on shot that was 34 lengths in front of the third horse.

Any chance they could enter Zanahiyr for the Champion Hurdle?

 

[Desert Orchid]

....and what happens if Paros, for example, comes out and runs a blinder at the weekend ? Even if I did bet I wouldn't be taking a price on any Triumph Hurdle runner at this stage of the seasson.

My figures are suggesting Paros could come out and run as fast as Goshen and still wouldn't get near Zanahiyr!

 

[Euronymous]

I'd need some context before getting involved. Meaning what were the time bandits opinions re the last Triumph? I know some pundits were fully erect re Solo's chances but were they tb's or not?

 

[Maxbet]

Hope you haven't gone in too heavy without taking in the whole picture.

All things being equal, there are three ways to run a race.


1) Go Steady and sprint.
2) Go off too fast and suffer late.
3) Secretariat....Ie. perfect sectionals.

At the end of the day, there usually isn't a lot in it time-wise, but common sense would hint at perfect sectionals coming out on top, hence Secretariat smashing the course record, beating a whole lot of the intermediate distances he passed through, during the course of the race.

Ballyadam 11-12 ran his race 10 seconds slower than Zanahiyr 10-11 (no WFA being a 24th Apr foal).
Cayd Boy 11-10 ran his race approx 8 seconds slower than Zanahiyr.

In Ballyadams race, they stood still for 5 seconds before embarking and they then crawled, for the most part, sprinting at the finish.

The handicap that Cayd Boy was second in, (chosen because of the wait he carried) reached their top speed a lot further out than the other two races. In other words, they were driven harder from further out, as is usual for a competitive handicap but they didn't stand still at the start.

Observe the principles in all three races simultaneously from the same point, I chose the missed 5th from home and you get a true reading.

Ballyadam giving away over a stone picks him up easily, winning by 2 lengths.
Cayd Boy with 2 Lb less than Ballyadam, crosses the line level with Zanahiyr.

So whatever you calculate for this race, and I am assuming it wasn't just a knee jerk reaction to the matching of each time on paper; If you rate the performance of Zanahiyr exceptional, then so too is Ballyadam's and to a slightly lesser degree, that of Cayd Boy.


All this is given, that the pace Zanahiyr travelled through in the race, did not appear to be uncomfortable. And Cayd Boy was able to muster a challenge at the end of a long top speed effort, giving a very well handicapped (backed into 5/1 the night before, drifting before the off) horse 22Lb.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Most of that context is covered in SR's breakdown, though, Maxbet.

Usually I time from when the leader's withers are directly over the first and subsequent hurdles. Ignore the opening section of SR's figures and the remaining picture still puts Zanahiyr in a very positive light. I'm tempted just to take Ballyadam out of the equation altogether as he really only started running very late in the day but that would imply he was able to travel at his absolute fastest speed in the final two or three furlongs yet still the younger horse was travelling at least as fast without being given too hard a time.

I find valuable big-field handicaps are often a more reliable comparator. As I said before, the frontrunners weren't to be seen at the end so the pace was probably strong yet they were losing ground to Zanahiyr most of the way round. They clearly quickened at one point in the handicap but that was telling in the closing stages again.

Looking at the pictures, I wonder if maybe there was a slight frost still in the ground for Zanahiyr's race, being one of the early ones but I'm not convinced it would thawed much anyway as the afternoon wore on and temperatures dropped.

Topspeed ratings on the day are modest across the card, suggesting they're taking Zanahiyr's race as the fastest but relating it to a 10-year-average winner and calculating time ratings from there. I'm taking the handicap winner as running to my figure for him and extrapolating from there. It still makes Ballyadam's race slow overall and the bumper about average.

But it makes Zanahiyr very fast indeed. I suspect Mullins thought he had something a bit special on his hands with his horse and will have been gobsmacked that something could run away from it. His Champion Hurdle horses probably wouldn't beat him so easily.

It might also be that the winner, a wee bit like that good Flat horse whose name escapes me for now, just isn't stopped by deep ground.

 

[reet hard]

Just read SR's prognosis,and - much as expected - it's built around the assumption that horses race against the clock. They don't; particularly in championship races, where it's real-world racing againdt any nmber of capable challengers, and though he's undeniably a hot prospect, I'd rather be a layer than a playerat this nascent stage of the season.

 

[Desert Orchid]

But it makes Zanahiyr very fast indeed. I suspect Mullins thought he had something a bit special on his hands with his horse and will have been gobsmacked that something could run away from it. His Champion Hurdle horses probably wouldn't beat him so easily.

I did some more checking last night.

I feel at a bit of a disadvantage not having my own standard times for Irish courses. I don't fully trust the RP ones for British tracks but I can't have full faith in the figures I'm coming up with because they make the runner-up in the same ball-park as Our Conor a few years back and he was exceptional.

I suppose in much the same way as several forumites would argue that Arkle couldn't possibly be 20lbs better than Kauto Star, I would find it hard to believe that anything could be 16lbs better than Our Conor as a juvenile.

The chances are that other factors are at play in the final times but even taking 30lbs off Zanahiyr's time rating would give him a big shout in an average renewal.

There's also the chance that although he appeared to do it pretty effortlessly the race might have taken plenty out of him (and maybe the runner-up).

 

[Maxbet]

Just read SR's prognosis, and - much as expected - it's built around the assumption that horses race against the clock. They don't; particularly in championship races, where it's real-world racing against any number of capable challengers, and though he's undeniably a hot prospect, I'd rather be a layer than a player at this nascent stage of the season.

I look every day at the times, to see if there was an anomaly if there is I run the videos to get a better angle on what's going on. I always have your past words in mind regarding the clock reet, and I am sceptical.

In the Ladbroke Trophy, the bottom weight carrying 10 stone ran a race at the optimum pace to deal with that field. It's easy not to get anxious when you know the result but watching it live, I couldn't help thinking to myself; nothing is going to come from behind without taxing itself too much to threaten him, he's bottom weight tanking at almost full speed and he has an abundance of stamina. I said in the early comments of the Trophy thread that he would be trading at evens with 3 fences to go, I was bang on.
One by one the horses started to feel the effects of their top speed effort, the first three home were the last to get busy. Tom Scu let rip after the last and the horse extended, with plenty left had they got to him.

On Saturday at Newbury, there were 3-chase course records broken, over 3 different distances. Now if you run all three races from the first fence in their respective races that correspond with each other, Cloth Cap even destroys the other two despite the extra distance he ran. He was given 11Lb, I did say before the race was run, he'd get 10, but aye ho. He now goes up, yes up to bottom weight in the National. The weight he's given doesn't count for anything matched to that of the others. he will with 10 stone; be able to do to the national field, what he did in the Trophy unless the handicapper does a reverse Arkle, and handicaps the field against him, not the top weight!

 

[Desert Orchid]

I reckon the National and how it will unfold is an argument for another day, Maxbet, but, much like the Mackeson, Cloth Cap did to the field what Coole Cody did.

Would I back Coole Cody to repeat the feat in the Massey-Ferguson (without knowing right now whether he's eve engaged in it)? I'm not sure, even though he only went up 6lbs. I would be looking at the numbers first. But other yards will be sending out runners to take him on up front and put his jumping under pressure.

Will Cloth Cap ever be allowed to dictate the pace again? He'd never done so before. I think Tom Scu caught them by surprise and the horse has never jumped as well as it did the other day.

I'm a big fan of front-running staying chasers and was impressed with Cloth Cap the other day. That was a whole new level for it - I backed it in the Ayr National the season before last - but I do think, going forward, the 11lbs hike might be an issue for it.

I hope to do my own time analysis of Newbury today and will get back (via the race thread) with my findings.

 

[barjon]

Just read SR's prognosis,and - much as expected - it's built around the assumption that horses race against the clock. They don't; particularly in championship races, where it's real-world racing againdt any nmber of capable challengers, and though he's undeniably a hot prospect, I'd rather be a layer than a playerat this nascent stage of the season.

It’s very true that horses run against each other and not the clock. Nonetheless, it’s also true that whilst a good horse can run a bad time a bad horse cannot run a good one. As such, time plays its part.

 

[Maxbet]

I reckon the National and how it will unfold is an argument for another day, Maxbet, but, much like the Mackeson, Cloth Cap did to the field what Coole Cody did.

Would I back Coole Cody to repeat the feat in the Massey-Ferguson (without knowing right now whether he's eve engaged in it)? I'm not sure, even though he only went up 6lbs. I would be looking at the numbers first. But other yards will be sending out runners to take him on upfront and put his jumping under pressure.

Will Cloth Cap ever be allowed to dictate the pace again? He'd never done so before. I think Tom Scu caught them by surprise and the horse has never jumped as well as it did the other day.

I'm a big fan of front-running staying chasers and was impressed with Cloth Cap the other day. That was a whole new level for it - I backed it in the Ayr National the season before last - but I do think, going forward, the 11lbs hike might be an issue for it.

I hope to do my own time analysis of Newbury today and will get back (via the race thread) with my findings.

This is different DO....They are going up 8 furlongs.
He won't need to dictate, just run as fast as he did on Saturday and keep going...whether he makes it, lies 4th or 5th...one by one they will fade, he won't...only a fall stops him winning the Nat!

 

[Desert Orchid]

This is different DO....They are going up 8 furlongs.
He won't need to dictate, just run as fast as he did on Saturday and keep going...whether he makes it, lies 4th or 5th...one by one they will fade, he won't...only a fall stops him winning the Nat!

Stamina might stop him.

Many a good 4-miler hasn't stayed the National trip. Who would have thought Master Oats wouldn't have stayed?

Garrison Savannah was a Gold Cup winner (ergo probably able to travel faster at 3m2f than a 147-rated horse) and didn't get home.

Don't get me wrong. What CC did the other day is what I hoped he would do last season and he looks to have now come of age but there will be 160+ horses at Aintree running off 150. He'll find it harder to shake them off.

 

[Maxbet]

Stamina might stop him.

Many a good 4-miler hasn't stayed the National trip. Who would have thought Master Oats wouldn't have stayed?

Garrison Savannah was a Gold Cup winner (ergo probably able to travel faster at 3m2f than a 147-rated horse) and didn't get home.

Don't get me wrong. What CC did the other day is what I hoped he would do last season and he looks to have now come of age but there will be 160+ horses at Aintree running off 150. He'll find it harder to shake them off.

Not many horses stay the National trip when they fall Do!
Master Oats was dotting up the first time he ran in It....In his last run before retirement, he carried 2 stone more than the 4 horses in front of him and was 11 years old...that's, not, not staying DO

Garrison Savannah at his best was running in the National 3 weeks after a gruelling Gold cup win when he was second to Seagram giving away 10Lb's with Bonanza Boy and Durham Edition way behind, that's not, not getting home; that's being beaten by a better-handicapped and fresher horse on the day!

And besides all of this, they have lowered the fences and cut the distance by 2 furlongs...It isn't the stamina test it once was Do

 

[reet hard]

I look every day at the times, to see if there was an anomaly if there is I run the videos to get a better angle on what's going on. I always have your past words in mind regarding the clock reet, and I am sceptical.

In the Ladbroke Trophy, the bottom weight carrying 10 stone ran a race at the optimum pace to deal with that field. It's easy not to get anxious when you know the result but watching it live, I couldn't help thinking to myself; nothing is going to come from behind without taxing itself too much to threaten him, he's bottom weight tanking at almost full speed and he has an abundance of stamina. I said in the early comments of the Trophy thread that he would be trading at evens with 3 fences to go, I was bang on.
One by one the horses started to feel the effects of their top speed effort, the first three home were the last to get busy. Tom Scu let rip after the last and the horse extended, with plenty left had they got to him.

On Saturday at Newbury, there were 3-chase course records broken, over 3 different distances. Now if you run all three races from the first fence in their respective races that correspond with each other, Cloth Cap even destroys the other two despite the extra distance he ran. He was given 11Lb, I did say before the race was run, he'd get 10, but aye ho. He now goes up, yes up to bottom weight in the National. The weight he's given doesn't count for anything matched to that of the others. he will with 10 stone; be able to do to the national field, what he did in the Trophy unless the handicapper does a reverse Arkle, and handicaps the field against him, not the top weight!

Though I've little interest in NH racing, I do believe that race times have some value, and it's interesting to note there's a parity between Newbury times on Saturday and the resultant t/s figures. That is not necessarily the case at Fairyhouse, where the relative time for the 3m5f chase is not far removed from the 2m hurdle, run at 3.05., which is not easy to make sense of. Haven't a clue why, without intense study of the replays, but it does cast doubt (imo) on the racetimes as a whole?

 

[reet hard]

It’s very true that horses run against each other and not the clock. Nonetheless, it’s also true that whilst a good horse can run a bad time a bad horse cannot run a good one. As such, time plays its part.

I the latter case, I'd query going allowance, which can be pretty elastic; moreso in NH races.

 

[barjon]

I the latter case, I'd query going allowance, which can be pretty elastic; moreso in NH races.

Yes, I think going allowance is a snag, particularly since the going is not consistent across the course. Anyone who watched Lost in Translation visibly floundering in the boggier parts of Haydock the other day where it was obvious there was heavy and heeaavvyy.