Rotten EW Thread

Navan 5.15 tomorrow.

The Weld horse won't improve. We know he's around a 90 horse. Ground caught him out when asked to quicken over 12f FTO. O'Brien horse wasn't off a yard FTO and will be a big improver. Is 4/9 v 2/1 correct? It's highly debatable. It feels like 11/10 11/10 might not be far off the SP's in my head.

You can currently get 2/1 e/w the O'Brien horse. I think it's a win only project but it's absolute robbery E/W 1/5 1.2.3. Wear gloves when you place your bet E/W to avoid leaving finger prints. It needs to die mid race to not place in the 3 and the books are laying you 2/5.

That's a rotten e/w bet. Not the shite put forward on this thread so far.
 
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Yeah. Probably not a thread for me this Slim. I take the point with your example but I'd never be interested in backing something so short ew, even if it is perceived as value. Rather do my money backing it win only!
 
DanB88 said:
Yeah. Probably not a thread for me this Slim. I take the point with your example but I'd never be interested in backing something so short ew, even if it is perceived as value. Rather do my money backing it win only!
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You're thinking about it wrong. Its not too short, its far too big e/w. It needs to die to unplace. You're getting laid 2/5.
 
SlimChance said:
You're thinking about it wrong. Its not too short, its far too big e/w. It needs to die to unplace. You're getting laid 2/5.
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Yeah. Fully get that but if it doesn't win then you're losing 30 quid per 100 staked at 1/5 the odds. That can't be conducive to winning long term?

Looking at the market this morning the gap is closing between them. If The Gurkha wins we'll probably have a new 2nd favourite for the Derby.
 
Navan 4.45
Earring 10/3 1/5 odds 1,2.3

Sensational e/w value. Might I suggest an e/w double with The Gurkha in the 5.15.
 
DanB88 said:
Yeah. Fully get that but if it doesn't win then you're losing 30 quid per 100 staked at 1/5 the odds. That can't be conducive to winning long term?
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If you had £100 e/w at 2/1 your expected win on the bet would be £28.60. Are you seriously telling me guys on this forum are having £200 bets today with that sort of expected value? I'll give you a clue, they're not.
 
SlimChance said:
If you had £100 e/w at 2/1 your expected win on the bet would be £28.60. Are you seriously telling me guys on this forum are having £200 bets today with that sort of expected value? I'll give you a clue, they're not.
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No. Like I say I'm a novice at this sort of punting and was just using a round figure trying to get my head around it because I'm always keen to consider different approaches and respect others opinions and experiences.

Regarding the maths I need to have a read around on that because I don't use it as much as I should in my betting but that's more a case of where I am at the moment.

I've got no idea really the punting habits of the other forum members Slim if I'm being honest. I'll take your word on that.

In summary Slim you're probably wasting your time with me at the moment.
 
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I would have included Dewdrop in the 3.40 double in place of earring but he's weak everywhere in the market and the other O'Brien thing in the race is being well backed.
 
fonz said:
I would have included Dewdrop in the 3.40 double in place of earring but he's weak everywhere in the market and the other O'Brien thing in the race is being well backed.
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Its very rare that a handicap without an extra places is bad e/w. The 3.40 is a race to avoid for the purpose of this thread.
 
The 4.05 Wincanton is horrific e/w too. You could throw Bun Doran 7/4 in for an e/w treble with the O'Brien horses. Nothing wrong with 11/2 Kerrow either but I prefer the other one.
 
SlimChance said:
The 4.05 Wincanton is horrific e/w too. You could throw Bun Doran 7/4 in for an e/w treble with the O'Brien horses. Nothing wrong with 11/2 Kerrow either but I prefer the other one.
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Haven't had a chance to post but the three you've mentioned are the ones to back today. Bookies will not appreciate people consistently backing these type of races ew.
 
SlimChance said:
Navan 5.15 tomorrow.

The Weld horse won't improve. We know he's around a 90 horse. Ground caught him out when asked to quicken over 12f FTO. O'Brien horse wasn't off a yard FTO and will be a big improver. Is 4/9 v 2/1 correct? It's highly debatable. It feels like 11/10 11/10 might not be far off the SP's in my head.

You can currently get 2/1 e/w the O'Brien horse. I think it's a win only project but it's absolute robbery E/W 1/5 1.2.3. Wear gloves when you place your bet E/W to avoid leaving finger prints. It needs to die mid race to not place in the 3 and the books are laying you 2/5.

That's a rotten e/w bet. Not the shite put forward on this thread so far.
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That went off 1/10 to place on Betfair. 2/5 was some gift.
 
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SlimChance said:
Navan 5.15 tomorrow.

The Weld horse won't improve. We know he's around a 90 horse. Ground caught him out when asked to quicken over 12f FTO. O'Brien horse wasn't off a yard FTO and will be a big improver. Is 4/9 v 2/1 correct? It's highly debatable. It feels like 11/10 11/10 might not be far off the SP's in my head.
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Well read, Slim !
Good man. :thumbsup:
 
Dundalk 7.00

I've no doubt there are better mathematical e/w races today but I have a bit of insight into this race.

The cash this morning has been for Aiden O'Brien's Seventh Heaven who will need to improve on her two efforts so far. 10/11 reflects this. Jowana is one I backed at a massive ptice on debut (5/1 to be in the the first 4) after hearing good reports about her work. She is 11/2 with BetVictor which seems overly generous. Her 4th behind Smash Willimas at the Curragh puts her in the ratings range to win this race. It certainly entitles her to be a good bit odds on to place. This is not the case with the general 5/1 on offer. It wouldn't suprice me in the slightest if Weld's is out for a run and High Honcho looks around an 80 horse. You really don't have much opposition to the bet.
 
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