Royal Ascot 2021

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Marb

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Mar 8, 2016
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The all important handicap entries should start coming through later this week.
 
Impossible to get excited about Ascot handicaps without the going. The 2yo races look like they could be nicely above par this year.
 
Copied from the Longshot thread:

Queen Anne Stakes - Safe Voyage 66/1 - take out Palace Pier and Love and the race is no more than a glorified handicap. Safe Voyage is one of three or four on pretty much the same rating as each other but the others are much shorter and SV is emerging third top on RPRs. A couple of modest runs so far this season require forgiving but I don't have a problem with that. They'll probably over-water too so I'm not that concerned [for now] about the going. I have no idea if the plan is to run but I'm happy enough to take a wee chance at a big price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Copied from the Longshot thread:

Queen Anne Stakes - Safe Voyage 66/1 - take out Palace Pier and Love and the race is no more than a glorified handicap. Safe Voyage is one of three or four on pretty much the same rating as each other but the others are much shorter and SV is emerging third top on RPRs. A couple of modest runs so far this season require forgiving but I don't have a problem with that. They'll probably over-water too so I'm not that concerned [for now] about the going. I have no idea if the plan is to run but I'm happy enough to take a wee chance at a big price.
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Safe Voyage 66/1 is far too short for a non runner.... He is 7Lb better on very soft/heavy ground, and would stand a much better chance if it were entered!

The trainer once said this horse is better taking a bend...Queen Anne is a straight mile...Sussex stakes on heavy ground at 66/1 would be tempting!
 
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Glass Slippers not entered in the King's Stand stakes. Last update from Kevin Ryan after deciding to skip the Temple Stakes was that a decision between the King's Stand and the Diamond Jubilee would be made nearer the time. So either the horse has has a setback or more likely they are swerving meeting Battaash in favour of stepping up to 6F.
 
ep1987 said:
Glass Slippers not entered in the King's Stand stakes. Last update from Kevin Ryan after deciding to skip the Temple Stakes was that a decision between the King's Stand and the Diamond Jubilee would be made nearer the time. So either the horse has has a setback or more likely they are swerving meeting Battaash in favour of stepping up to 6F.
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Strange decision given Battaash is returning from injury.
 
I've spent the past couple of hours looking at Day 1. From a betting point of view the day gets more interesting the more it goes on.

The Wolverton (5.35) is a particularly fascinating puzzle to try to solve this season. There's several horses rated over 110+, although most of the field are rated between 100-110.

I see the bookmakers go 4/1 the field and Patrick Sarsfield is favorite. This horse as with a few of them has been running at different trips, which kind of tells me their trainers are either still experimenting or don't know their best trips.

One horse who is definately a ten furlong specialist albeit proven at a lower class level than this listed event is Victory Chime.

I really like this horse's profile especially as a horse who is only viewed to have an outsiders chance at Royal Ascot.

Victory Chime's overall form has improved in each of the last three seasons. He's popped up every so often to win a class two handicap and been very consistent.

This season as a six year old his last two races at Epsom have been very good, especially given he dwelt at the start in one race and was then niggled along early when a five length second placer to fellow rival Blue Cup.

He was giving Blue Cup 10lbs in weight that day which he won't be doing this Tuesday. He not only has a good weight pull with Blue Cup, a leading fancy for the race in his own right, but is massively overpriced in relation to the odds of Blue Cup.

Connections stick the visor on Victory Chime which will should sharpen him up especially in the early part of the race.

I feel he's ready to run a lifetime best here. The betting market often underestimates an improving handicapper when upped for the first time to listed class, and Victory Chime with the visors on can cause the upset.

He should be no bigger than a 14/1 chance in my mind at least.
 
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Disagree Marb. The Wolfreton looks impossible and the boat races can do one.

Queen Anne:
Poor renewal. Fav should win but Lope Y has form on the straight track and prefers fast ground. Would like 4/1 w/o the fav. I quite like Top Rank in theory in the same market but no Ascot form and not sure about the trainer. Remember Declaration of War bombing out in the Lockinge before taking this.

King's Stand:
I've done Winter Power as there's a big back to lay angle with her and there has to be doubts about Battaash. Race looks weak beyond the front two.

SJP:
Very open. I think Chindit is overpriced at 10s. Doesn't travel the best but finds for pressure and Ascot should suit him more than being on the wrong side of the track in the Guineas. There's at least three horses shorter than him in the market who should be bigger.
 
Quite interested by Gallota Bridge in last on day one. Bought out of Stoute yard off some good runs preceding a poor one. Gelded and wind op before appearing beginning of June for Dr Newland and running a nice race to finish second.........hmmmm.
 
Day 1
3.05 The Acropolis 13/2
5.00 Golden Rules 12/1
6.10 Saldier 3/1

Beware the rain forecast for Wednesday evening.
 
I'm heavily into Elysian Flame 16/1, 7 places, in the Ascot Stakes (5.00). I'm half-anticipating a move that will bring it into single figures. I was really taken by its defeat of Almighwar and you can draw a line through its run in the Chester Plate when it blew the start but still did well to keep on late. Being generous, you could argue that it should have won (although the winner was impressive enough) and could be a winner without a penalty.

Edit, 'blew the start' is not strictly accurate. It was badly hampered and basically lost any chance it might have had.
 
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In the Wolferton, I've taken 14/1 Fox Tal (5pl). I have it top-rated just ahead of the two market leaders so if the figures are right it's a decent each-way prospect.
 
Copper Horse Hcap - Saldier 3/1 - If Saldier doesn’t translate his hurdles form back to the Flat this could be a hugely competitive race which could come down to readiness, jockeyship, luck in running or a permutation of them. If Saldier does translate his hurdles form it could be a one-horse race. I’ve taken the price in anticipation of the latter and a shortening in his price to less than 2/1.
 
Rumblings at the Palace?

I reckon Mr Balding may have blotted his copybook a bit with our good Queen. Tactical was entered in the Jersey Stakes Group 3 and the St James Palace Stakes Group 1. In his round up of chances Balding said more

“We’re just going to wait for the moment. Tactical is a very good horse, he’s won a Group Two already and he would be competitive in the Jersey Stakes. However, the St James’s Palace is also interesting as there are question marks about a couple of the leading players over the ground. It will enhance his prospects as a stallion if he were to finish in the top three in the St James’s Palace. Yes winning a Group Three would be great, but it’s not as essential for him. If we felt he could finish in the first three in the St James’s Palace, we would think about it, but I think the Jersey is more likely, but we’ll see what is likely to turn up on the Tuesday.”

That sounded as though he would prefer a top three finish in the St James and, more importantly, that he would be ridden for a place if he ran in it.

Since those remarks Tactical came out of the Jersey and now I see that he’s not in the St James either! Perhaps HM was not best pleased to be seen going for a vulgar chase for money in the St James Palace rather than a respectable attempt to win the Jersey.
 
jinnyj said:
Quite interested by Gallota Bridge in last on day one. Bought out of Stoute yard off some good runs preceding a poor one. Gelded and wind op before appearing beginning of June for Dr Newland and running a nice race to finish second.........hmmmm.
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You were on fire in the tipping comp for this meeting last season. Seeings how I don't fancy much I'll have to follow you on this horse each way. Good luck.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm heavily into Elysian Flame 16/1, 7 places, in the Ascot Stakes (5.00). I'm half-anticipating a move that will bring it into single figures. I was really taken by its defeat of Almighwar and you can draw a line through its run in the Chester Plate when it blew the start but still did well to keep on late. Being generous, you could argue that it should have won (although the winner was impressive enough) and could be a winner without a penalty.

Edit, 'blew the start' is not strictly accurate. It was badly hampered and basically lost any chance it might have had.
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Yes I was considering him so you've made me select him. Good luck.
 
barjon said:
Rumblings at the Palace?

I reckon Mr Balding may have blotted his copybook a bit with our good Queen. Tactical was entered in the Jersey Stakes Group 3 and the St James Palace Stakes Group 1. In his round up of chances Balding said more

“We’re just going to wait for the moment. Tactical is a very good horse, he’s won a Group Two already and he would be competitive in the Jersey Stakes. However, the St James’s Palace is also interesting as there are question marks about a couple of the leading players over the ground. It will enhance his prospects as a stallion if he were to finish in the top three in the St James’s Palace. Yes winning a Group Three would be great, but it’s not as essential for him. If we felt he could finish in the first three in the St James’s Palace, we would think about it, but I think the Jersey is more likely, but we’ll see what is likely to turn up on the Tuesday.”

That sounded as though he would prefer a top three finish in the St James and, more importantly, that he would be ridden for a place if he ran in it.

Since those remarks Tactical came out of the Jersey and now I see that he’s not in the St James either! Perhaps HM was not best pleased to be seen going for a vulgar chase for money in the St James Palace rather than a respectable attempt to win the Jersey.
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Still entered in the Jersey, and jocked up!

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/2/ascot/2021-06-19/785085/at-a-glance
 
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Marb said:
You were on fire in the tipping comp for this meeting last season. Seeings how I don't fancy much I'll have to follow you on this horse each way. Good luck.
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Gosh that was a LONG time ago! I had forgotten.....not been doing well recently but this one caught my eye.

Are we having a competition this year? I appreciate its always DG who so kindly runs them but it would be a disaster if I did as the scores would be uninterpretable!
 
I have no strong fancies for tomorrow but since it is Ascot I decided to put a fiver ew on 3 of the tips on here and do a £2.50ew tribe before doing a proper study tomorrow. I went to sites of 3 of the largest bookies, all of which I have an account. The maximum stake I was allowed was in ascending order. £0.21, £0.43 and £0.71.

It would be nice to think that I am such a successful punter that they are worried. Nice, but definitely untrue. ****ing ridiculous!
 
I have no strong fancies for tomorrow but since it is Ascot I decided to put a fiver ew on 3 of the tips on here and do a £2.50ew trixie before doing a proper study tomorrow. I went to sites of 3 of the largest bookies, all of which I have an account. The maximum stake I was allowed was in ascending order. £0.21, £0.43 and £0.71.

It would be nice to think that I am such a successful punter that they are worried. Nice, but definitely untrue. ****ing ridiculous!
 
I have no idea how their algorithms work.

I recently got a message from Betfair telling me I was no longer allowed any special offers (which I presume means extra places, BOGs etc) but at least they haven't restricted me on ordinary bets. Betvictor removed the BOGs etc a couple of years ago and I just can't get a bet of any sort - I'm talking pennies - with Betfred, which is the weirdest of the lot since I so seldom bet with them and don't recall ever taking any serious money off them.

I have to say fair play to Bet365. They have never restricted me even after I landed a 20/1 x 16/1 double a few years back, taking thousands off them. They're the firm that recently voided my Safe Voyage ante-post bet for the Queen Anne.

I suspect some bookies' systems pick up on patterns re following certain influential sources etc but I don't have any access to any such sources (that I would be willing to betray, at least) and 99% of my bets are based on my own ratings and instincts.
 
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