Royal Ascot 2021

Battaash may be a 7yo, but I have him head and shoulders above these.
General 2/1 looks cash in the bank.
 
A few thoughts ahead of some of the more interesting [for me] races today (odds references as of 6-7am Monday, when I wrote the pieces):

Queen Anne:
Taking them in order of their appearance in the table (my ratings), Palace Pier (4/9) is impossible oppose unless you reckon the fast ground might be an issue for him. No doubt they’ll err on the side of over-watering so I wouldn’t be too concerned myself. Lord Glitters (20/1) and Regal Reality (22/1) are longer than their form entitles them to be and I wouldn’t put anyone off an EW bet on either. I might settle for the old racing cliché of a watching brief. At the moment, only two bookies (at oddschecker) are offering the ‘betting without Palace Pier’ market, Bet365 and Hills. The latter’s market is win only with LG (8/1) and RR (9/1) dutching at just under 4/1. I might think about that. Sir Busker (25/1) strikes me as the big improver in the race if you assume his two runs this season were to keep him under the radar for this. He didn’t run his race in soft here (hung badly left) but had previously been beaten only 1½L off 111 on the wrong side in the Cambridgeshire when he didn’t get home and before that was second in the white-hot Clipper Logistics at York to Montatham with Top Rank back in third and Golden Mile winner Prompting in fourth. That’s just about the best mile handicap form of last season. 10/1 each-way without the favourite is another possible angle for him. I’m not sure Order Of Australia’s (6/1) form can be taken at face value. He was a 107 plodder until he went abroad last backend when he won the Breeders’ Cup Mile at 40/1 and was a fair sixth in the Hong Kong Mile. It’s possible he was the only decent horse suited by the very fast ground at Keeneland so maybe the watering will be against him. Accidental Agent (66/1 and likely to drift) did us a proper turn in 2018 but would need Palace Pier to run like Benbatl did that day. He did beat Lord Glitters, though, so I might have some sentimental shekels on him at the best possible terms.

King's Stand:
Battaash (15/8) looks another for the punters and I’m gobsmacked that he’s odds against, let alone nearly 2/1. I’ve read in places that he’s opposable because he’s been injured but I’d be prepared to swat away those concerns as readily as I’d expect the horse to swat away his opponents. I’m not sure about Oxted (15/2) back in trip and I’m against Winter Power (9/2) because of her age. Not too many 3yos try for this and their only success in recent years was Lady Aurelia who was very mature. Que Amoro (14/1) is probably a decent each-way pop and I’m intrigued that Dettori (Extravagant Kid, 8/1) may have rejected a Ward runner in favour another US raider.

SJP:
Poetic Flare (4/1) heads the market at a reasonable enough price but the ratings point to the paucity in class in the field. It’s more of a glorified handicap. I’m surprised to see Mostadhaf (9/2) so high in the betting. That’s got to be on reputation more than evidence. Dettori is no doubt waiting for Coolmore to offer him the best of whichever Moore rejects and I’ll probably have to have some sickness insurance on the first-time tongue-tied Battleground (13/2) which was backed late into favouritism for the 2000 Guineas but failed to act on the track. The favourite and Lucky Vega (15/2) are fair markers for the race but the overall lack of strength in depth opens up the possibility of something improving past them all. It’s more of a race to watch.

Ascot Stakes:
I don’t feel too much enthusiasm for this renewal, maybe because of all the hurdlers involved. Not too many Flat horses truly stay this trip but not many of the hurdlers are stayers either. I’ve taken Elysian Flame 16/1 (7pl) ew to a pretty hefty stake. I was very taken by its defeat of Almighwar and it was badly hampered at the start in the Chester Plate and then hampered again and forced wide when making a move two out. It might have given Green Book a race and might be a winner without a penalty. The extra places are a huge help from a punting angle.

Wolferton:
This is another glorified handicap. The top three are probably the strongest candidates so it’s as much a question whichever runs its race as anything else. At 14/1 Fox Tal is probably a decent each-way prospect. Patrick Sarsfield (4/1) heads the market ahead of Solid Stone (5/1). A few bookies are going four places with Sky offering five. I’ve taken Fox Tal with them at the price and will stick there.

Copper Horse Hcap:
If Saldier (3/1) doesn’t translate his hurdles form back to the Flat this could be a hugely competitive race which could come down to readiness, jockeyship, luck in running or a permutation of them. If Saldier does translate his hurdles form it could be a one-horse race. I’ve taken the price in anticipation of the latter and a shortening in his price to less than 2/1. Sam Cooke (20/1, eliminated) will have a shout if he gets in, in which case I’ll be taking that price. Hyanna (25/1) and Hochfeld’s (18/1) ratings are from the pick of last season’s form and they are overpriced too. It could be a smashing race, a good betting one and form to follow.
 
In case people don't know Paddy have a £5 free bet on the 2.30 and Bet365 a £5 free bet on any race. Obviously if you're bonus banned you won't get them :(
 
Welcome back, Outsider.

I see the money is there today for both Richard Hannon runners, (Gisburn now fav for the Coventry, and Chindit a mover later on). They'll do for me. Big day for the stable.
 
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Like the move for Chindit.

Wtf happened to Kaufeymaker in the Coventry. I was chomping at the bit for the day of race market for a juicy place lay and the frigger has drifted like a barge.
 
Been badly out of form of late. Here’s a few I have been hmmming over!

Lope y Fernandez is a bit of a cliff horse of mine

Always love the Coventry and usually wait until I see them in the paddock - on short list are:
Caturra - never underestimate a Clive Cox 2yo especially as it was well touted before its debut. Not bothered it went to Bath to break its Maiden as trainer often does that.
The Acropolis - trainer seems to Farm this race and it’s often the best bred colt that wins this
Tolstoy - again very nicely bred and should thereabouts

Used my free bet (thanks Col for reminder) on Battaash and had a little ew on Que Amoro

STP - Battleground is another cliff horse and I am going to stick with him

Ascot Stakes in invariably won by a NH trainer isn’t it?! So I have gone for Rayapour ew to support Adam and maybe Lucky Deal in first time blinkers

Wolferton is a bit of a head scratcher so far...again probably wait until last minute. Possibles are Forest of Dean, Juan Eleanor, Solid Stone

Last I have gone for Galata Bridge ew and possibly Sleeping Lion who does seem to be improving for switch of yards.

Good luck all and have a grand week :D
 
Lope is being slagged off and maybe rightly so on balance but he is a fast ground animal who has form on this straight track. I've place laid Forest of Dean. Dettori will be gassed out by the time this is run and he won't ride out for 3/4th
 
Easily enough but maybe not like a 2/7 shot for Palace Pier. I have enough on the double with Battaash to cover just about all of my bets for the day so, unusually for me, I'll be rooting for a shortie.
 
Not a bad performance from Berkshire Shadow there. Maybe a bit too early to tell what the form amounts to but the Coventry form is usually decent.
 
Mmmm. I am not sure if I was totally sold on it form wise (probably because mine didn’t figure :lol: ). Thought the fav was a bit weak physically.
 
Shite from Winter Power. Ken P said she was light in the parade ring and I think I'll be putting the trainer in the don't back in a Group 1 list.
 
She looked OK. She’s a sprinting filly. Personally I think KP is clueless.

And rewatching the race, she just paid the price for a very strong early pace. Of those up there early, only Battaash lasted out and actually he’s run better than final placing suggests.
 
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I'll be keeping an eye on declarations tomorrow.

I think Montego Bay if she makes the cut is very interesting on Friday for O Brien and Co.

Top price 14/1 atm with Hills.

Juice in that price if declared you'd have thought.
 
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Well you can’t knock Poetic Flare now can you? What a tough horse and well deserved.
 
Poetic Flare/Palace Pier smash up would be good. Ground clearly key in that clash.

Shame the Shadwell horse had no run through!
 
Luke: Jamie, do you have any chance? [On Lethal Steps]
Jamie: Gordon told me to go out and enjoy myself.

Who is this Gordon character?
 
Finally a proper winner for me with Juan. He looked fantastic beforehand. And I have realised I got 22s on Betfair...nice!
 
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Nice winner too.

I thought Fox Tal had the race won pretty much the whole way but he either didn't stay, didn't let himself down in the final two furlongs or is a dog. I suspect the last.

Backed in from 20s to 15/2 an'a'.
 
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