Royal Ascot - Saturday

Euronymous

Euronymous

Senior Jockey
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
Messages
19,120
Location
Leyland
No winners yet but I'm hopeful on the last day.

Expected Ektihaam to be 7/4 for the Hardwicke and I managed to get a score on at 100/30 early this afternoon. Still backable at 11/4.

I have 16s ante-post on Gordon Lord Byron in the Jubilee but I'd like some rain.

Lahaag on my horse tracker but I'd rather he ran over 10f. Might have to leave him alone. Not sure yet.
 
For me the only question is if the horse is fully fit

My figures for the race
dandino 130
Ektiham. 132p?, slow time last time and will not have an easy lead.
Mount Athos. 139+, drop in trip no problem with pace in the race
Noble Mission 131+$
Sir John 128p
Universal. 130+

I thought Mount athos was going to be 5/4
I took 11/4 and will go again tomorrow
 
Aitken went into this race (The Hardwick) last season seeking a 7 timer which is a big ask of any horse.

After finishing a decent 4th he was given a 3 month rest, a run and then ran a stormer running Rite of Passage to a neck on this course.

The forecast is for heavy showers so hopefully we will have a change in going and Gosden will run him. If he does he could spring a big surprise.

At 16 on the machine and around 4 for a place he's worth a bob or two.
 
I was just about level after Thursday so with yesterday's wipeout I'm back to where I was at the close of play on Tuesday. I can take another bad day but would rather have a good one...

2.30 Paul Cole doesn't send them here unless he really likes them so I've taken Berkshire and backed it up with Sir Jack Layden who comes from a fast race and was miles clear of the third last time stepped up to this trip.

3.05 Not sure if Ektihaam's win amounts to much but even if it does, Mount Athos should be far too good.

3.45 Society Rock seems to be getting more reliable and is undoubtedly the best of these on a going day. For me he's the only runner close to being a proper G1 sprinter. Sea Siren might be no Black Caviar but if her OR is accurate her allowance should make her competitive.

4.25 Louis The Pious grabs me here. Considering the yard has a line to the Duke via Smoothtalkingrascal and Tudhope has opted for this one, the 40/1 was far too big. He's also had a wind op since last season. I was on Nocturn at 25/1 before Newmarket but don't fancy it too much now. Glass Office has a July Cup entry so might be well handicapped off 103. Royal Rock is well handicapped on his best form. Duke Of Firenze is a solid favourite. Shropshire looks sure to run a big race. Arnold Lane should never be 40/1. If rain gets into the ground Mass Rally could win. Terrific race. Mental stuff. I love it!!

5.00 Ustura, Stencive and Caravan Rolls On (but may be using this as a prep for the Ebor) look the best at the weights. Rye House might need rain but if not should shake them up. Marginal preference for Ustura.

5.35 Shahwardi, No Heretic and Chiberta King look the ones to focus on.

One good winner will cover the day. Two good winners or a win for Louis The Pious will let me break even. Fingers crossed for better than that.

Be lucky.
 
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A client of my brother-in-laws apparently owns Hawkeyethenoo, and has expressed a degree of confidence in the horse's chance in the 6f G1 today.

Is he a hopeless optimist (like most owners), or do current odds of 12/1 represent value?

Thanks
Grass
 
The 3.05 is an intriguing contest and prompts changing allegiance. I first thought Ektihaam would make all, quicken around the turn and hold on, but with Universal in the field he'll likely sit a pressing second and find it difficult to get away from Universal coming into the straight. I see horses swooping wide to swallow these two, so it's just a matter of identifying them!

Dandino may track the pace but was unable to get past Universal in a sprint last time, no winner here for Frankie. Aiken's recent form is over further and it seems to be an improvement of his runs over this trip, he is likely to get a good pace here which will help and connections are to be respected but I think a place is most likely.

Mount Athos also has form over slightly further but has been in excellent form for his latest yard. I see MA being held up off a good pace and coming with a quickening run in the straight, seems to handle prevailing conditions, strong chance.

I'm expecting a better run from Noble Mission than the bookies suggest at 14/1, a good pace will help, I just have a niggling doubt about him hitting a flat spot early in the straight and if he'll get going in time to get involved in the finish. The 2nd representative from Warren Place was well beaten by Ektihaam last time, be surprised if good enough.

Songcraft won well last time but is out of his depth and Sir John Hawkwood needs big improvement from his handicap wins, though you wouldn't be surprised given connections.

1st Mont Athos
2nd Aiken
3rd Noble Mission

Bets on MA at 3/1, Noble Mission 10/1 & Aiken 7/1 (both e/w w/o Fav) look attractive.
 
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I like Dandy Boy in the G1 on the strength mainly of his C&D performance in last year's Wokingham. Tenth of sixteen last time out doesn't sound like the ideal prep but, truth be told, it was a pretty eyecatching run and I've no doubt the ability is still there. Society Rock the danger and Mince would have a decent shout as well.

Rex Imperator would be a big winner for me in the Wokingham for reasons given elsewhere. As usual, confidence has ebbed away as the race has drawn near.
 
Grasshopper said:
A client of my brother-in-laws apparently owns Hawkeyethenoo, and has expressed a degree of confidence in the horse's chance in the 6f G1 today.

Is he a hopeless optimist (like most owners), or do current odds of 12/1 represent value?

Thanks
Grass
Click to expand...

He's no forlorn hope, Grassy.
Would've probably beaten today's fav with a better run lto, and he just loves the Ascot track. Should certainly make the first 4 (or 5, depending whom you bet with).
 
I'm also taken by Louis the Pious but have backed Daniel Tudhope three times this week and whereas the RP states 'held up' or words to that effect, my view is Daniel got lost as the stalls opened - are the starts at RA just that much more intense and aggressive?

So, half stakes on LTP and an interest in Chandlery.

GLTA - MR2
 
Desert Orchid said:
I was just about level after Thursday so with yesterday's wipeout I'm back to where I was at the close of play on Tuesday. I can take another bad day but would rather have a good one...

2.30 Paul Cole doesn't send them here unless he really likes them so I've taken Berkshire...
Click to expand...

Yeeehaaa... 28/1 taken :lol:

Today's punts and half of yesterday's losses covered!
 
Eventful stuff in the 3.05 and looks like heartbreak for connections of the winner. Mount Athos seem to hit a flat spot and stay on, disappointed that Noble Mission didn't hold on for 3rd, for all that Universal is a battler I think Queally thought he was going to be 3rd a stride or 2 too soon.
 
I was shouting at Spencer to wind MA up from further out. Maybe the slip by Ektihaam made him rethink his game plan as I'm sure he would have attempted to close sooner if Ek had stayed up. He's still a negative in my book.
 
Mount Athos has been beating mutts like Brown Panther and Mr Moose or whatever he's called. Over 12f he had little chance against Group animals, even if they were mainly 2 and 3

I don'f suppose any of the bookmakers I backed the moral winner with will give me my money back.
 
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