Royal Ascot - Tuesday

A

Ardross

Senior Jockey
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Aug 8, 2007
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48 hour decs are up here

http://www.racingadmin.co.uk/ascot/runners.html

Elusive Kate runs in the Queen Anne . Considering how well she went when fresh in the Falmouth I hope she puts it up to AK - the rest of the field look G3 standard .

19 in the King Stand- not good for Hayley Turner - she has been jocked off Hoyam in favour of harry Bentley ?? following her not riding either Bell horse in the Oaks - is she on her way out there ?

9 in the SJPS and Magician is declared

Big fields as ever for the other three and two good spares for Frankie from the Hannon yard in Thunder Strike and Steventon Star.
 
Thunder Strike looks a very good spare indeed. I'm disappointed that Astaire doesn't run.

Dawn Approach's price looks very short to me if Magician is a hundred per cent.
 
I'd have his ride on Homeric down in the Ascot Stakes as a damn good ride too. Not sure how often he's ridden for Highclere racing but I really fancy that horse.
 
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Any horse that has bombed like that in the Derby is short at 11-10 in a St James's Palace .
 
All over Toronado for the SJP. The early pace in the Guineas was too much for him, taking out of his comfort zone. Over a mile round a turn and with a smaller field and a slower pace I genuinely think he is a more likely winner of this than Dawn Approach. Magician the obvious danger. The French horse has place claims at a big price.

The two foreign market leaders in the first two races must be taken on at their prices and I like Elusive Kate in the Queen Anne and Reckless Abandon in the King's Stand. I have nice prices on them both.
 
Stubbs looks the bet for me on Tuesday, The fav won this 4 years on the trot now I think. Possibley in a double with Shea Shea and an each way on Reckless Abandon, I cant see anything else having the class to play a part in the KS. Also hoping against hope that Dawn Approach prevails as he is an absolute beauty.
 
Trade Storm (2.30) ran better in the Duty Free than his finishing position allows, is still improving, and should at least make the first 3.
Tiger Cliff to win the Ascot Stakes, and bring the house down.
 
done toronado e/w at 4s. be surprised if out of the top 3 despite his guineas flop.

might be worth a dash at elusive kate with powers concession of money back if AK wins.
 
I've backed Penitent at 66/1 in the opener. I just think that's ridiculously long for one who's on a par with so many in what looks a substandard renewal.
 
I read an article by Graham Cunningham a few days ago where he said that it was hard enough to pick the winners without factoring in potential draw biases on top. In other words, according to him we should pay little attention to the draw. I guess if people want to back horses from a high or low draw then fair play, I guess some people will be backing top (or bottom) weights too, or picking numbers out a hat, or horses with nice names! :)
 
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trefflich said:
Which side will be favoured in the big sprints or is it a case of wherever the pace is?
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It's where the pace is, though that's not always easy to predict.
GOING: GOOD (GoingStick: Stands' side 8.5, Centre 8.5, Far side 8.6, Round 8.1)
 
reet hard said:
Tiger Cliff to win the Ascot Stakes, and bring the house down.
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Respect his chance, and I'd be delighted to see it, but I just think Mubaraza might be better suited by the significantly longer trip and could reverse the Newmarket form.

Justice Day has solid prospects in the last. Anticipated is favourite to confirm previous Ascot form with him but I thought it was an inspired piece of jockeyship from Hughes that won the day then and O'Neill should be wise to it tomorrow.
 
Pricewise has 3 picks for Day 1 of Royal Ascot:

2.30 – Trade Storm
3.05 – Pearl Secret
4.25 – Sir John Hawkins
 
gus said:
Respect his chance, and I'd be delighted to see it, but I just think Mubaraza might be better suited by the significantly longer trip and could reverse the Newmarket form.

Justice Day has solid prospects in the last. Anticipated is favourite to confirm previous Ascot form with him but I thought it was an inspired piece of jockeyship from Hughes that won the day then and O'Neill should be wise to it tomorrow.
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Am seeing things remarkably similar to you Gus. Justice Day at around 20/1 my bet of the day. His 2 defeats have been when facing an insufficient stamina test. Well run race at 5f and he doesn't have much at all to find with Anticipated.

Also on Mubaraza. Colleague made an interesting point though, and it could just be a coincidence, but he's only run away from Newmarket 3 times, and disappointed on every one. All of his runs at both Newmarket courses have been creditable. A cert for the Ces then even if a no show tomorrow!
 
gus said:
Respect his chance, and I'd be delighted to see it, but I just think Mubaraza might be better suited by the significantly longer trip and could reverse the Newmarket form.
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Read in a recent interview with his owner that Sir Henry planned this all a while ago, and seemed to have every confidence in Tiger Cliff's ability to see out the trip.
 
Just looking through the entries; who would have thought that sons of Moonstone (Stubbs) and Peeping Fawn (Sir John Hawkins) would be competing against each other in the Coventry over 6f this early in the season.
 
In the last ten years the Coventry has grown considerably in status - Ascot 2 year olds in the Coventry are now frequently classic winners the following year !

It must be getting close to G1 class .
 
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The ground is getting quicker at Ascot. Revised going stick readings: Standside: 8.9, Centre: 9.0, Farside: 9.1, Round: 8.3
 
Supplicant in the last looks nicely priced, was giving weight away when beaten two necks and had a pig of a draw. Expect a lot better today although will have to wait and see if draw bias appears before piling in.
 
MAGICIAN 3.45 ROYAL ASCOT

Since 2000, 10 of the 13 winners of this race had finished first or second in the Irish 2000 guineas. Aiden O Brien was responsible for 5 of those winners from just 8 runners.
Dawn Approach would have been odds on for this had he swerved the Derby. However, there is plenty of pace in the race and he may well not settle again.


HEERAAT 3.05 ROYAL ASCOT (EACH WAY)

15-16 WINNERS PLACED FIRST FOUR LAST TIME
14-16 WINNERS WERE NOT BRED IN THE UK

Those two trends knock every horse bar
Shea Shea
Heeraat
Shamexpress
Angels Will Fall

Conclusion: Shea Shea is sure to go close here and I think Shamexpress should run well. However, Heeraat needs a strong pace to aim at and if he gets the breaks he looks an outstanding each way bet at 40/1
 
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