Good morning.
For me, it's almost as if flat racing has shut down over the last week. Is it that I've become more discerning or has the quality of mid-week racing deteriorated in quality markedly? Dreadful.
So we come to Saturday and the racing looks just so-so, imo. Certainly, there is precious little that tempts me so it's a skeleton Saturday, as far as I'm concerned.
Just the two fancies:
Kings Merchant - Ripon 2.45 12/1 Ew 5 places
I've noted this fellow recently and this does look like a decent opportunity. I've found a note that I wrote, after his last run, for reference:
So, given that, this looks like a good opportunity. I like the fact that he's got good course and distance form from last year which ties in closely with Fortamour. Although there's not much to choose between them on that running, KM was a 3yo at the time and I always like to show interest in horses that have run well as 3yo's against their elders. I have to think that these two will be cheek - by - jowel with their chances here but, after his last run and my observations above, I'd have to side with KM. They're both well drawn, I think.
Here's why he won't win:
Should I back the horse given the jockey's awful stats here:
Cam Hardie riding for trainer Kirby: 0 - 40 (!)
Cam Hardie recent form: 0 from last 53 rides.
With those figures, I'm supposing statisticians would steer well clear but I've backed him and I just hope he runs to his capabilities.
My only other one is:
Jumby - Newbury 3.00 6/1 Ew
This one has not won for a long time yet he's been strongly noted the last twice in my book and this looks like a lively bet. He's down in the weights, 10Lbs below his LWR, is a C/D winner and just looks cherry-ripe to do himself justice for this nice pot.
2 x Singles
Ew Double
Good luck
For me, it's almost as if flat racing has shut down over the last week. Is it that I've become more discerning or has the quality of mid-week racing deteriorated in quality markedly? Dreadful.
So we come to Saturday and the racing looks just so-so, imo. Certainly, there is precious little that tempts me so it's a skeleton Saturday, as far as I'm concerned.
Just the two fancies:
Kings Merchant - Ripon 2.45 12/1 Ew 5 places
I've noted this fellow recently and this does look like a decent opportunity. I've found a note that I wrote, after his last run, for reference:
So, given that, this looks like a good opportunity. I like the fact that he's got good course and distance form from last year which ties in closely with Fortamour. Although there's not much to choose between them on that running, KM was a 3yo at the time and I always like to show interest in horses that have run well as 3yo's against their elders. I have to think that these two will be cheek - by - jowel with their chances here but, after his last run and my observations above, I'd have to side with KM. They're both well drawn, I think.
Here's why he won't win:
Should I back the horse given the jockey's awful stats here:
Cam Hardie riding for trainer Kirby: 0 - 40 (!)
Cam Hardie recent form: 0 from last 53 rides.
With those figures, I'm supposing statisticians would steer well clear but I've backed him and I just hope he runs to his capabilities.
My only other one is:
Jumby - Newbury 3.00 6/1 Ew
This one has not won for a long time yet he's been strongly noted the last twice in my book and this looks like a lively bet. He's down in the weights, 10Lbs below his LWR, is a C/D winner and just looks cherry-ripe to do himself justice for this nice pot.
2 x Singles
Ew Double
Good luck
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