Well, that's Cheltenham done and dusted for another year. I'm glad we're back to normal racing because the festival, for me, is just too difficult for I have trouble deciding which of the five Mullins horses in a race will win, or which of McManus' are going to prevail. Not a chance: I'm just not clever enough.
Today I have a couple that I'm doing and I share them with you in the hope that you'll be able to share my joy/misery, if you choose.
I have a horse which I have followed since his first run over fences. Anonymous Cloud (3.00 Uttoxeter) is the one and I was lucky enough to back it when it won over the course last year, after q run of three seconds in novice company, races in which I had left him alone in the hope that he could take advantage of a lenient handicap mark when sent for a decent pot. It's not always that these plans come off but I was lucky enough to be on when he obliged, eventually at 15/2. I was on again when he won first time up, again over the course, at 2/1.
I had always thought that he'd be a natural for the Midlands National and here we are: he's in off 10.13. Of course, I'll have to back him but, inevitably, there is, as they say, a 'Fly in the ointment' in the shape of Iron Bridge. When AC won the first of those chases (rated 125), he ran against Iron Bridge (137) and just, just managed to him him off by a head with Iron Bridge gaining fast on my horse. Today they re-oppose with Iron Bridge 7Lbs better off. Now, form is one thing but context is another. The going the day was soft but today is heavy. which of the two will cope better? Well, AC has won on the ground and come second on it, too. IB has run well on heavy, too, with a second in the Welsh National on the ground.
The extreme distance of 4m 2f is one which very few horse are truly capable of and Ib looks like he'll appreciate the trip given his last two staying on performances over 3m 6f and 3m 4f. He's bred to stay forever, too. AC's breeding is questionable, being by Flemensfirth but the stable seemed to fancy him over the Welsh National trip for he was 9/2 joint favourite that day. He bled, unfortunately and was PU, so we'll never know if he would have stayed. I must say that last season he did strike me as a proper stayer and also that is one massive fellah and is still improving as he fills out his frame. He's lightly raced, too with only eleven runs under rules. Just to complicate matters, Iron Bridge is also lightly raced, having had exactly the same number of rules under rules.
Strictly speaking, on these terms, Iron Bridge should be the selection but I'm not confident. I think I'll be doing them both in a r/fcst and singly, too. After all, despite the terms here, AC is one of my list horses, I've been thinking of this race since his day last year plus they fit the tongue-tie on for the first time.
Autonmous Cloud - 3.00 Uttoxeter 5/1 Ew
Iron Bridge - 3.00 Uttoxeter 5/1 Ew
2 x singles
Reverse forecast
I have a mind to have a pop with one more, too:
Elvies Vladimir - 3.30 Uttoxeter 0/30 Win.
Here's one that will go on the ground, no doubt; he's won two and was second once on the ground. next thing is I'm certain that he will absolutely love the step up to 3m. The breeding screams stayer with the sire Shircco and the grandsire Un Desperado. If ever there was one for staying trips, it's this one. A winner by 10L in February, I think he can keep winning even with the revised rating since the trip will improve him, I'm sure.
Win Single
Finally, note the parlous state of British NH racing continues. This race, with 26,000 to the winner, now has only seven runners so places for the first two only. It seems those that run the game seem determined to run it into the ground. They just don't care.
Good luck with your post - Cheltenham fortunes.
Today I have a couple that I'm doing and I share them with you in the hope that you'll be able to share my joy/misery, if you choose.
I have a horse which I have followed since his first run over fences. Anonymous Cloud (3.00 Uttoxeter) is the one and I was lucky enough to back it when it won over the course last year, after q run of three seconds in novice company, races in which I had left him alone in the hope that he could take advantage of a lenient handicap mark when sent for a decent pot. It's not always that these plans come off but I was lucky enough to be on when he obliged, eventually at 15/2. I was on again when he won first time up, again over the course, at 2/1.
I had always thought that he'd be a natural for the Midlands National and here we are: he's in off 10.13. Of course, I'll have to back him but, inevitably, there is, as they say, a 'Fly in the ointment' in the shape of Iron Bridge. When AC won the first of those chases (rated 125), he ran against Iron Bridge (137) and just, just managed to him him off by a head with Iron Bridge gaining fast on my horse. Today they re-oppose with Iron Bridge 7Lbs better off. Now, form is one thing but context is another. The going the day was soft but today is heavy. which of the two will cope better? Well, AC has won on the ground and come second on it, too. IB has run well on heavy, too, with a second in the Welsh National on the ground.
The extreme distance of 4m 2f is one which very few horse are truly capable of and Ib looks like he'll appreciate the trip given his last two staying on performances over 3m 6f and 3m 4f. He's bred to stay forever, too. AC's breeding is questionable, being by Flemensfirth but the stable seemed to fancy him over the Welsh National trip for he was 9/2 joint favourite that day. He bled, unfortunately and was PU, so we'll never know if he would have stayed. I must say that last season he did strike me as a proper stayer and also that is one massive fellah and is still improving as he fills out his frame. He's lightly raced, too with only eleven runs under rules. Just to complicate matters, Iron Bridge is also lightly raced, having had exactly the same number of rules under rules.
Strictly speaking, on these terms, Iron Bridge should be the selection but I'm not confident. I think I'll be doing them both in a r/fcst and singly, too. After all, despite the terms here, AC is one of my list horses, I've been thinking of this race since his day last year plus they fit the tongue-tie on for the first time.
Autonmous Cloud - 3.00 Uttoxeter 5/1 Ew
Iron Bridge - 3.00 Uttoxeter 5/1 Ew
2 x singles
Reverse forecast
I have a mind to have a pop with one more, too:
Elvies Vladimir - 3.30 Uttoxeter 0/30 Win.
Here's one that will go on the ground, no doubt; he's won two and was second once on the ground. next thing is I'm certain that he will absolutely love the step up to 3m. The breeding screams stayer with the sire Shircco and the grandsire Un Desperado. If ever there was one for staying trips, it's this one. A winner by 10L in February, I think he can keep winning even with the revised rating since the trip will improve him, I'm sure.
Win Single
Finally, note the parlous state of British NH racing continues. This race, with 26,000 to the winner, now has only seven runners so places for the first two only. It seems those that run the game seem determined to run it into the ground. They just don't care.
Good luck with your post - Cheltenham fortunes.