What a good day's racing we have in store, eh?
It's such a shame that we have to wait mostly for Saturdays to come around before we are able to say that.
Doing a good few today. There are four that come from my alerts and a couple I have an inkling for. Firstly, I'll be having this as my main bet:
Haveyoumissedme - 5.05 Southwell 8/1 Ew 4places 365 Absolutely no chance off what was a snails pace. Just look at the time and you'll see what I mean. I don't know why I bother.
I spotted this one two runs ago at this course, over 1m 3f. He looked a proper eyecatcher that day, held up out the back over an inadequate distance but making stealthy, unbothered headway at the race's end. Straight into the notebook he went. His next run was over 12f again and, again, he was at the back before the late headway. Of course, I went thorough his form and noticed that he last won over 2m in a cl3 handicap at Newcastle (same surface as Southwell) from a mark of 85.
Two things of note: his latest three runs have all been over 12f and each time he's been held up out the back. When I look at his wins, the last one was over 2m and in two of his career four wins, he has been close up in running. One can never tell with some horses how they will be ridden and in that respect he is an unknown quantity. I do think that the 2m is best for the horse (he's had an entry for the Cesarewitch in the past).
So, back to 2m, 6Lbs below his LWR and back to Southwell where I first noted him. I think the 8/1 looks a reasonable price. Yes, there's a warm favourite in Palace Boy (I'm a Crystal Palace fan, too - gulp) who may well carry on improving in spite of the 6Lb rise but his last two wins have come over 1m 6f. Although the dam may well provide the necessary stamina, it has still to be proven. I think the same applies to Alan King's Spartan, up 2Lbs for the win last time out but that race didn't conclusively prove that he stays 2m since it was slowly run and a sprint finish over the last 2f. Bearing in mind, on a line through Barenbohm, my one has a couple of pounds in hand, I'm quite happy to think that Haveyoumissed me is worthy of a frame finish at least.
The next three are notebook runners, two of which are chasers and all followed on account of their jumping. The other was noted in a chase but looks reasonable value on his return to hurdles:
Pembroke - Kemptom 2.27 6/1 Ew Back to 2m needed. Jumped beautifully
Collectors Item - Chepstow 3.08 10/1 Ew Bit of a rogue, I think.
This one made stonking late headway the run before last in a 3m chase at Sandown with the first time pieces. On his last run, again over fences, the pieces were removed. PU. There's every chance that his run over hurdles at Uttoxter in a Cl 2 handicap (rated 2Lbs higher) gives him a decent chance. Course winner too.
Mount Tempest - Chepstow 3.43 4/1 Ew No excuses. Maybe needs to drop in weights
Two others a have a little fancy for:
Flower Of Scotland - Newcastle 2.08 13/2 Ew Improved to look dangerous, faded but maybe needed the run.
There's not many that stay this far but she's one such She's won over the distance and going. The stable's in good nick, too, with 4-13 recently.
Bowtogreatness - Kempton 3.37 13/2 Ew 4 Places 365 Looked like the winner until ran out of it near home. Jumped nicely
Just a fancy with the stable in excellent form
So, there you have it. To sum up: good racing but a crap day for me. All those words and just rubbish ability
Good luck
It's such a shame that we have to wait mostly for Saturdays to come around before we are able to say that.
Doing a good few today. There are four that come from my alerts and a couple I have an inkling for. Firstly, I'll be having this as my main bet:
Haveyoumissedme - 5.05 Southwell 8/1 Ew 4places 365 Absolutely no chance off what was a snails pace. Just look at the time and you'll see what I mean. I don't know why I bother.
I spotted this one two runs ago at this course, over 1m 3f. He looked a proper eyecatcher that day, held up out the back over an inadequate distance but making stealthy, unbothered headway at the race's end. Straight into the notebook he went. His next run was over 12f again and, again, he was at the back before the late headway. Of course, I went thorough his form and noticed that he last won over 2m in a cl3 handicap at Newcastle (same surface as Southwell) from a mark of 85.
Two things of note: his latest three runs have all been over 12f and each time he's been held up out the back. When I look at his wins, the last one was over 2m and in two of his career four wins, he has been close up in running. One can never tell with some horses how they will be ridden and in that respect he is an unknown quantity. I do think that the 2m is best for the horse (he's had an entry for the Cesarewitch in the past).
So, back to 2m, 6Lbs below his LWR and back to Southwell where I first noted him. I think the 8/1 looks a reasonable price. Yes, there's a warm favourite in Palace Boy (I'm a Crystal Palace fan, too - gulp) who may well carry on improving in spite of the 6Lb rise but his last two wins have come over 1m 6f. Although the dam may well provide the necessary stamina, it has still to be proven. I think the same applies to Alan King's Spartan, up 2Lbs for the win last time out but that race didn't conclusively prove that he stays 2m since it was slowly run and a sprint finish over the last 2f. Bearing in mind, on a line through Barenbohm, my one has a couple of pounds in hand, I'm quite happy to think that Haveyoumissed me is worthy of a frame finish at least.
The next three are notebook runners, two of which are chasers and all followed on account of their jumping. The other was noted in a chase but looks reasonable value on his return to hurdles:
Pembroke - Kemptom 2.27 6/1 Ew Back to 2m needed. Jumped beautifully
Collectors Item - Chepstow 3.08 10/1 Ew Bit of a rogue, I think.
This one made stonking late headway the run before last in a 3m chase at Sandown with the first time pieces. On his last run, again over fences, the pieces were removed. PU. There's every chance that his run over hurdles at Uttoxter in a Cl 2 handicap (rated 2Lbs higher) gives him a decent chance. Course winner too.
Mount Tempest - Chepstow 3.43 4/1 Ew No excuses. Maybe needs to drop in weights
Two others a have a little fancy for:
Flower Of Scotland - Newcastle 2.08 13/2 Ew Improved to look dangerous, faded but maybe needed the run.
There's not many that stay this far but she's one such She's won over the distance and going. The stable's in good nick, too, with 4-13 recently.
Bowtogreatness - Kempton 3.37 13/2 Ew 4 Places 365 Looked like the winner until ran out of it near home. Jumped nicely
Just a fancy with the stable in excellent form
So, there you have it. To sum up: good racing but a crap day for me. All those words and just rubbish ability
Good luck
