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Saturday Thread: Sandown, Musselburgh & Irish Gold Cup

Slim

Slim

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Joined
Dec 6, 2019
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ITV Racing

Sandown Jumps 12.20
Featuring the Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase

Musselburgh Jumps 1.10
Featuring the Scottish Champion Chase

Leopardstown Jumps 1.15
Featuring the Irish Gold Cup

Racing TV
Sandown Jumps 12.20
Wetherby Jumps 12.30
Musselburgh Jumps 1.10
Leopardstown Jumps 1.15

Sky Sports Racing
Lingfield AW 1.05
Newcastle AW 4.25
 
Sandown 2.40
Mambonumberfive 6/1 or better

I'm pretty excited to see this 5yo step up in trip to 2m 4f after routing a bunch of ordinary novices at Kempton in a Grade 2 at Christmas. He made errors at the seventh and eighth fences and you'd be forgiven for thinking he was out of the race. Instead, his jockey Ben Jones let the horse gather himself together, he was quickly back on the bridle and won easily by 7l. That was over 2m. With the extra trip and heavy ground, his stamina will come to the fore and he can upset a few fancier names ahead of him in the betting. His trainer was in no doubt he was an Arkle horse after going three from three over fences, but this looks like a far better test of the horse's skills. He's a big horse and it's hard to say when the improvement will stop. I'm very surprised a horse on a steep upward curve is available at 7/1, with so many things to like about the race conditions for him.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wasn't there an element of pace collapse in that race, Slim?
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Absolutely not. They just weren’t very good horses. He’s a 3-miler in time, and they still couldn’t go quick enough to put him on his head. For a 5yo it was a serious performance, and he could meet any of the four again, run the race any way you like, and the result would be the same. Ben Pauling always points out his size at 17 hands. This horse will just keep improving.
 
Slim said:
Absolutely not. They just weren’t very good horses. He’s a 3-miler in time, and they still couldn’t go quick enough to put him on his head. For a 5yo it was a serious performance, and he could meet any of the four again, run the race any way you like, and the result would be the same. Ben Pauling always points out his size at 17 hands. This horse will just keep improving.
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I replayed that race and Thistle Ask's race half an hour later simultaneously from the first fence and the novices were faster almost throughout, yet Thistle Ask took seasoned horses out of their comfort zone before next time running Jonbon to three lengths in a G1.

The finishing speeds in both races were under 100% so I reckon they must have gone too fast at some point and MN5 was the one that came from off the pace in his race.

It probably supports your contention that his stamina got him home and the step up in trip will almost certainly bring about further improvement.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I replayed that race and Thistle Ask's race half an hour later simultaneously from the first fence and the novices were faster almost throughout, yet Thistle Ask took seasoned horses out of their comfort zone before next time running Jonbon to three lengths in a G1.

The finishing speeds in both races were under 100% so I reckon they must have gone too fast at some point and MN5 was the one that came from off the pace in his race.

It probably supports your contention that his stamina got him home and the step up in trip will almost certainly bring about further improvement.
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Both races broke the track record.
 
3.42 Sandown - already mentioned Blow Your Wad moving to the Moore's on the ante-post thread and I also like Pic Roc in this race....I'm always willing to forgive a horse a bad run at Ascot. Mr Vango and a Jonjo horse at the head of the market equals a race I want to tuck into.

2.20 Muss - I've taken 6/1 about JPR One here. Angle is he's never run over this far before and it might eek out a bit of improvement (he is a full brother to Deep Cave and won over 2m3ish as a novice hurdler.) Market wise I was hoping Teddy Blue would run in Ireland but he's still in - not afraid of Insurrection or The Kalooki Kid.

Questions for Sunday - Ile Atlantique is interesting off joint top weight at Leop - will he run? And am I out of my mind for thinking Transmission has claims in the Edinburgh National? (I think Mussie may suit as the steep turns might mean they can't get away from him as readily as they do at other tracks.)
 
Kinturk Kalanisi for me on Sunday at Leopardstown.

A huge run he put in last time over Christmas. The winner franked the form at Cheltenham recently. It's serious form, and he's still only a second season chaser who is entitled to improve again.

It should take a very good one to beat him.
 
Slim said:
Both races broke the track record.
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Yes, despite not running entirely efficiently.

ATR's 'efficiency' grades (where A is best):

MN5 'D' (the others the same or worse)

TA 'D' (runner-up Saint Segal was 'C', presumably for trying (or not being able) to go with the winner from the sixth.)

I was wrong about the closing percentages, though. Both were marginally over 100% but still slower than ideal. The pace maps suggest they went fast mid-race in MN5's race and very fast in TA's.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, despite not running entirely efficiently.

ATR's 'efficiency' grades (where A is best):

MN5 'D' (the others the same or worse)

TA 'D' (runner-up Saint Segal was 'C', presumably for trying (or not being able) to go with the winner from the sixth.)

I was wrong about the closing percentages, though. Both were marginally over 100% but still slower than ideal. The pace maps suggest they went fast mid-race in MN5's race and very fast in TA's.
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Sectionals are fine but I don't see what context they add in this case. Mambonumberfive destroyed a field over an inadequate trip when they went fast. It just tells me he's a very good horse.
 
Slim said:
Sectionals are fine but I don't see what context they add in this case. Mambonumberfive destroyed a field over an inadequate trip when they went fast. It just tells me he's a very good horse.
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You think the Irish horses will come over ?
That 7s will certainly look big if they don't !
 
Robicheaux said:
You think the Irish horses will come over ?
That 7s will certainly look big if they don't !
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Kitzbuhel and Kala Conti are both possible. Just a case of is it worth going to Sandown with the mare instead of Leopardstown to run on heavy.
 
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Slim said:
Sectionals are fine but I don't see what context they add in this case. Mambonumberfive destroyed a field over an inadequate trip when they went fast. It just tells me he's a very good horse.
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The sectionals say he was just slowing down less than the others (whose stamina was probably ebbing faster).
 
TV pictures / changes of camera angle don't always make it easy to gauge, which is why empirical evidence is always helpful.

My appreciation of this kind of evidence goes back to when Kelly Homes won one of her golds at the Olympics. She appeared to put in a strong finishing burst to hit the front right on the line but the data showed she merely maintained he speed all the way up the straight and the others slowed down.

In her interview later she referenced just focusing on keeping going and keeping her stride going and not worry about the other runners.
 
Desert Orchid said:
TV pictures / changes of camera angle don't always make it easy to gauge, which is why empirical evidence is always helpful.

My appreciation of this kind of evidence goes back to when Kelly Homes won one of her golds at the Olympics. She appeared to put in a strong finishing burst to hit the front right on the line but the data showed she merely maintained he speed all the way up the straight and the others slowed down.

In her interview later she referenced just focusing on keeping going and keeping her stride going and not worry about the other runners.
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Tell me how that's different from any race that's run anywhere?
 

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