Saturday

Gamla Stan

Gamla Stan

At the Start
Joined
Aug 19, 2005
Messages
4,337
This is more like it! A Group One at Ascot, A Group Two at York, a couple of heritage handicaps and plenty of other juicy fare.

Off to Ascot myself where I will be cheering Roaring Forte on (who's reappearance I've been incredibly excited about), slightly concerned about the pace in the race as Crackdown will go hell for leather against RF and Secret Society's course form gives him a cracking shout, I'd be opposing Captain Brilliance all day long. Full Mandate and Sri Putra look overpriced at Ascot too.

Elsewhere, Aromatic seems a huge price at York at 4/1, the yard was in terrible sorts when she last run and she looked very progressive prior to that. I love Tazeez to bits but I think he still needs quick ground to be at his best and he's still not won when travelling far from Newmarket. In the dash, Valery Borzov would be unbeatable if there was significant rainfall, he's a brilliant and very talented sprinter and 6f at York is ideal and he wants as much cut as possible.
 
Gamla Stan said:
Off to Ascot myself where I will be cheering Roaring Forte on (who's reappearance I've been incredibly excited about), slightly concerned about the pace in the race as Crackdown will go hell for leather against RF and Secret Society's course form gives him a cracking shout, I'd be opposing Captain Brilliance all day long.
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I'm very keen on Roaring Forte as well. He's way ahead of the handicapper imo. Something you can't really say about Secret Society or Captain Brilliance. I respect both those horses though and like you I think the former's course form could be important, so i'm gonna have a little on the place market as well rather than mucking about with cover bets.
 
For anyone interested Pricewise in the RP has put up the following:

Al Khaleej @ 16/1 3:45 York
Roaring Forte @ 11/2 3:50 Ascot
Taqdeyr @ 20/1 3:50 Ascot

Only horse to really take my eye today is Alwaary who was very unlucky last time out - think we can ignore the Lingfield run behind AOA and although he has to improve to win I feel there are significant doubts about a number of todays runners, most notably Tartan Bearer and Golden Sword.

Will also be taking the 9/2 Coral's offer about Whatsthescript taking home the Eddie Read Handicap at Del Mar tonight, there's likely to be a big speed dual on up front involving the favourite Monterey Jazz and Whatsthescript has an exceptional record at Del Mar :)
 
I admit I got excited seeing the quality on offer but once I took a closer look the excitement evaporated. Only two, maybe three races to get stuck into and Conduit might not be much value.

I might keep my powder dry for Goodwood.
 
Personally I think he'd be much better on softer ground and may lack the class of a horse like Conduit David and putting Vision D'Etat into this race I wouldn't think he (Vision D'Etat) would be any shorter than 8/1 and as such fail to see why TB is the price he is.
 
Thanks Irish Stamp. I disagree though. Vision D'etat was only 7/1 to win the Arc against much stronger opposition, and I really don't think he'd be much bigger than 9/2, 5/1 in today's race. As EC says, Ascot was riding on the slow side of good yesterday, so the ground may suit your theory, but I wouldn't have any concerns on good or good to firm for him, after all, he's recorded his best efforts to date on those surfaces.

Goiod lucky anyway, I agree Golden Sword looks a poor price.
 
I think time will show that Vision D was flatter to beat Tartan Bearer off nothing more than a medium gallop.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I'd be opposing Captain Brilliance all day long.
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I really think CB has as good a chance as anything today. He hasn't exactly done much wrong, appeared a bit unlucky last time and Murtagh has been retained for the ride when he probably could have been offered several of the others. I'd want CB very much on my side today but I also think Crackdown and Secret Society will be major players. I'll look again at Roaring Forte as I missed it first time round (it was cut off at the page break). If some think he's a mile ahead of the handicapper I'll be looking to confirm it myself.

As for the other races, Conduit is the logical choice in the King George but 2/1 doesn't stir the blood. Same goes for Kirklees at York. Only 11 runners for a 28G first prize in the Asc 3.15, though! That's really disappointing. At least they'll probably race together so hopefully the form horse will win. Peking Prince represents 'that' race at Ayr and I reckon he can win this from Espiritu and/or Pride Of Kings. Loch Linnhe, although disappointing SL at Ascot, is rated by Raceform as having improved with every run this season but has been hit hard by the handicapper for his last race. I can see me having a wee bit on Khaldoun Kingdom at York. This was one of my Wokingham fancies but it was withdrawn. It has apparently disappointed at York a few times but Hanagan sticks with it here and I wonder if they'll try to race more prominently today.
 
Roaring Forte has been hit for his win but there are strong grounds for fancying him to defy the handicapper.

Firstly, he's lightly raced.

Secondly, it's now a good two months since he ran. Had he come out and run at Royal Ascot he might have shown the improved form his profile suggested he had in him. Therefore, he could well have hit a higher rating and found himself off another 5-7lbs higher than he is.. and... he might have improved again in the meantime.

Thirdly, could it be that he needs to pick up a penalty to ensure a run at Goodwood in the big mile handicap?

Having said all that, I'm not sure his chances are significantly better than the others I mentioned earlier.
 
Yes, Colin. I felt I had to. I can exclusively reveal that I eventually backed just one horse in the race and that horse is...






Roaring Forte!
 
one that won't be winning by the looks of it today is Valerie Borzov in the 3.45 - its got £1654 sat next to it to lay on Betfair - stands out like a sore thumb
 
EC1 said:
one that won't be winning by the looks of it today is Valerie Borzov in the 3.45 - its got £1654 sat next to it to lay on Betfair - stands out like a sore thumb
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In fairness there's £2041 waiting to back it at 18.0 and Something has £2016 wanting to lay it.

There was stacks wanting to back Damika at 40.0+ this morning (upwards of £2,500).
 
A moan about RUK now, does anyone else find their 'racing calendar' bit really annoying.

Anyone watching the channel will know what's coming up next month!!!

And no doubt at some time this afternoon they will be showing the card they will be showing from York in August.

And we will be paying £20 a month for this.

I am definitely a miserable bast&rd today!:(
 
Have had a small-stakes E/W interest in Racer Forever in the International on the basis that he ran a cracking race in the Bunbury last time against a fairly stiff pace bias, having previously turned in a very decent effort at Royal Ascot. Interesting that he finished fifth in the 2007 Bunbury (running a very similar sort of race to his run in this year's renewal) before finishing runner-up in this race.

Vulnerable to improvers and possibly not fantastically drawn (hoping Crackdown gives him a decent tow through) but worth an interest for me.
 
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