Saturday 6th December 2008
SUPER SATURDAY
Good Morning;
Last Saturday proved successful with 4 winners, 2 places and a sunk lay and today we bid to improve on that feat on what looks a cracking days racing.
The feature card clearly is Sandown and we start their with our main view.
The Henderson camp have been on fire of late and they run a highly regarded type in the 12.50. CLAY HOLLISTER was a highly regarded bumper performer two season’s ago who won in a canter on his debut at Fontwell. Trying to run just a few days later at Kempton in very testing ground he came back very sore and shortly suffered a serious setback. Given all the time he needed to come back he has been impressing at home and the yard feel he is as good as promising hurdler Mad Max. He has schooled very professionally at home and has been found a suitable contest to make a winning return in. His biggest danger may come from World Shift who needed the run on debut but showed enough to consider him an ew player at this level.
It’s a big field for the 1.25 but having scored with Punchestowns and Andytown in recent weeks, Nicky Henderson hopes he has another smart handicap hurdler on his hands in EARTH CRYSTAL. Impressive when winning at Ascot last season under Marcus Foley he looks to have been given a very fair mark of 122 and he has been catching the eye at home working nicely with those previously mentioned promising hurdlers. It really could be a McCoy benevolent fund at Sandown today and Earth Crystal ranks one of the stronger bets. His inexperience will be my only concern and providing I can get double figure prices I will stick savers on Talenti, Shannon Springs and Harris Bay. Talenti is one horse I am keen on and think he is worth following this season as he has a decent race in him this year I’m sure of it. Well treated off 111 in my opinion he wasn’t suited by a stop start gallop at Fontwell last time and was outpaced when the race quickened up. This 2m 4f sure to ran at an even pace will suit. Shannon Springs was brought to my attention at Towcester last time and I was told the Turnell yard thought they had him in great form for his reappearance. He looked the winner throughout but got markedly tired up the hill and just got ran out of it. Beaten up a strong stayer in Character Building on that occasion the 6lb rise was probably about fair but given time to get over that hard race he is one of those who travels easily in his races and could be one to back at long odds before laying off at shorter prices around 2 – 3 out. I want Harris Bay on side as well, given I liked his chances at Ascot and Exeter in both his comeback efforts and wasn’t exactly given the hardest of rides on either occasion. His run at Kempton last time has already been well advertised by the winner, and the 2nd is a strong fancy at Chepstow today. This trip should suit up the hill and now 6lb lower in the weights from his last run he is starting to look well in off 110. Henrietta Knight’s horses are starting to come into a bit of form and he is overpriced at around 16/1.
I really do think this should be going to the promising Earth Crystal whose connections are making loud noises but I will use some cover bets in case one of our big priced ones pop up and upset the party.
FREE WORLD (2.00) looks to have one of the more straightforward tasks today and it was hard not to be very impressed by his slick, athletic jumping on his chasing debut when routing a fairly smart field of novices here under this jockey last time. Araldur claimed the scalp of Chapoturgeon last time and looks some kind of threat, whilst Cheating Chance lowered the colours of Psychomodo and Poquelin recently at Ascot. I would say Free World would be held in a fair bit higher regard than the pair of Nicholls horses beaten already by this pair but for me what excited me about him on debut was his jumping. He jumped immaculately and never touched a twig. Quick in the air McCoy struggled to contain him over his early fences and had to let him bowl along before getting him to settle into his stride. Over the final few fences he opened up again and he looked a serious Arkle horse on that occasion. I have had a few quid on him for the Arkle at 16s and the 14s on offer at present I feel will be at least halved by 2.10. His jumping is key here and if he gets out and dominates he will steal lengths at his fences and really put his rivals to the sword. He probably won’t be the biggest price in the world but I would be interested in some Arkle/2.00 Sandown special doubles that are sure to be available on request and if I could snap up a bit of 18s or 20s, I would be looking to back that, then lay off in the Arkle market after the race at around 8s for a free 12/1 or so bet on the Arkle. I think he’s a bit special.
Not a vintage Tingle Creek at 2.35 but its hard to get away from MASTER MINDED who seems to have been presented with another golden opportunity for McCoy today. I was always told you don’t get rich backing odds on shots but I think at 4/7 he is definitely far more appealing as a bet rather than a lay that’s for sure.
His opposition really doesn’t look too dangerous. We’re told L’Antartique isn’t ready for this and will be outpaced, Fiepes Shuffle failed to beat Andreas off levels at the end of last season, so its hard to see him challenging Master Minded. Mahogany Blaze has struggled against better opposition of late and wants further whilst Takeroc an exciting chaser in his own right but would be getting well over a stone in a handicap and found disappointingly little for pressure at Wincanton. Twist Magic has gone backwards of late and the fact Takeroc is preferred by the Nicholls team as a number two is slightly worrying, the ground will suit but fears are the breathing operation didn’t work. This is before we get to his main challenger Tidal Bay who won well at Carlisle and jumped fluently, however despite his demolition in last season’s Arkle his best form had come over slightly further and it must be disputed whether he is quick enough to lay down a serious challenge to the Champion Chase winner.
Master Minded for me is miles better than the field, and that’s not just on his amazing Cheltenham win. His Game Spirit success at Newbury makes him looks a very classy 2m prospect and providing he doesn’t uproot one of his fences which saw him tip up at Exeter last season, then he should be making a winning reapprence.
McCoy’s hopes of making it five take a backward knock in the next as he has to ride Sunnyhillboy in the 3.05. The Cheltenham winner won well on that occasion but the 2nd has been turned over since and a ten pound rise was high enough. This is much stronger.
The Henderson team wanted McCoy on board Blue Shark who is one of two selections for me in the race. The high class hurdler of many moons ago when winning at Chepstow and becoming a hot favourite for the Triumph Hurdle has been off a long time since plagued with injury problems but Nicky Henderson has never given up on getting him back and the yard feel he is seriously well treated off 133. Marcus Foley an able deputy gets the leg up here and after plenty of promise on the gallops a big run is expected. The yard would have wanted a drop more rain but with a frost overnight thawing out, the drop should ride a little easier. He is a big player.
Another yard keen to get McCoy on board was the Nicholls camp on their runner TCHICO POLOS comes here held in high regard. Christian Williams is taking every chance with open arms at present and having rode a nice double (one aid of the stewards) at Exeter yesterday he comes here in good spirit. Christian Williams would love to get his old job back at Nicholls and its seems the Ditcheat handler is willing to put the past behind them and throw out a lifeline giving him some smart opportunities of late. Remember it was Christian Williams who first brought Noland and Denman to our attentions and Tchico Polos comes here with a high reputation. He didn’t have to beat too much at Wincanton but the Henderson horse in 2nd was a useful bumper performer which was hardly unfancied in that contest. Off 127 confidence is high in the Nicholls camp and I make him my marginal preference over Blue Shark.
Five Dream who is running to keep the weight down for Tchico Polos ran okay at Chepstow but needs a stiffer task and would be better with more cut, he is likely to go chasing before too long.
Wingman and Kings Revenge are others that come here in good form and reportedly have solid claims but the two promising sorts from Henderson’s and Nicholls could end up being a lot better than this class and around 5/1 each they represent solid ew bets. I suppose they say they don’t come back, but lets hope they haven’t told Blue Shark as he could add more spice to the Champion Hurdle picture, whilst Tchico Polos could well be a smart novice who is only regarded 3rd best novice in the yard behind The Nightingale and Hebridean.
We finish proceedings in Surrey at 3.35 where in a race I’m not too keen on I’m willing to place my faith in Kilbeggan Blade who comes here form the in form Tom George yard and is in a race that will suit given he stays all day and should get a good solid pace set by Tana River. Winning on his prep over hurdles on his return 41 days ago at Towcester he comes here in good order for a solid race and with Eric’s Charm, and Tana River you can expect a pure test of stamina. He would be each way value for me whilst Victor Dartnall’s team are also in good form and Sporting Rebel is considered a well handicapped horse at the foot of the weights, he could also be worthy of each way interest. I’ll stick with the George horse however who under McCoy could help the Champ onto at least a treble but hopefully a five timer.
Nicholls sends his assault all the way Chepstow and the yard are quietly confident of troubling the judge four times today.
Sam Thomas got a bit of confidence back at Wincanton on Thursday and Charity Lane (12.25) and Inchidaly Rock (2.45) should be the straightforward tasks for him. Both are nice novices who have schooled promisingly and are strongly fancied despite being short.
NAKAI (1.00) remains the yards best hope on the card and having had a good comeback run behind Duc de Regniere last time here comes here in really good form. He needed that run to switch him off and his schooling over fences has reportedly been very pleasing. He is a horse the Nicholls camp have always held in very high regard and he looks to have been found a suitable opportunity on his chasing debut where he carries plenty of confidence for his jockey who will be chasing four today.
Gullible Gordon (3.45) was a horse I paddocked at Exeter and he didn’t look sharp enough for me and as a result I advised a lay on him, so I wasn’t surprised to see him get turned over. He is a horse who is quite gross and looks as if it will take a couple of races for him to be spot on. He looks a natural chaser in the making and I think he actually ran well considering last time. It was a kids race as well and looking a bit lazy and lethargic he gave his rider quite a hard ride. I don’t think we’ll see the best of him until he tackles larger obstacles but he reminds me a lot of what Gungadu was like in his early races and I think Gullible Gordon will be in much better form today and I think his price of around 9/4 offers plenty of value. I would be backing him today, with an eye on the Victor Dartnall challenger Giles Cross who didn’t have a hard time of it on debut and was not disgraced behind a nice prospect of Nicholls (Inchidaly Rock) and could give the selection most to think about.
The Nicholls domination can halted at 2.10 when David Pipe saddles the well handicapped Pauillac. I’m not sure what happened at Exeter but having seen him in the paddock he looked a bit dull and looked in need of the run. I had backed him early in the morning that day so you can imagine my disappointment when I only graded him a 5 in the paddock. Presenting Copper and Lysander should at least set a strong gallop for Pauillac which is what he needs and Timmy Murphy never gave up on him last time and to me suggested that this step up in trip would really suit. The Pipe horses are coming back into a bit of form and still being a young horse he is open to a bit more improvement than the majority of his opposition here. At 7/2 I would be looking to have a nice ew on him. Presenting Copper (Lay) wont get it easy up front with Lysander in the race and the 3/1 favourite has to be opposed in my opinion. I don’t rate this horse highly and she also takes a chance at her fences. Never won beyond 2m 2f she doesn’t always pick up and efforts over this trip and further have been disappointing. She looks a solid lay for me and all she will do if taking on Lysander in a dual, is set it up for the Pipe horse. Heres to hoping hey.
Wetherby remains in doubt but I’m still going to pledge my allegiance against Punjabi again. I tipped up Blue Bajan for it to be called off last week and whilst we will only have 2 places instead of 3 this weekend if it goes ahead, I feel that Blue Bajan on this flatter track has more going for him and seriously think he can beat Blue Bajan. For me Sublimity wont be quick enough for this, he just stays on one paced and as for Punjabi I just think he is a bit short in the betting and he seems to always need his first run back after a break (4th last season, and beaten on his debut as a 3yo, only times he has had breaks between races). I think the pace will be strong here with Harper Valley and Beau Michel likely pacesetters and that can set it up for the strong travelling Blue Bajan who is surely to be produced coming to the last. Only Beau Michel and himself have had a prep run this season and that can give them a fitness edge here. I think Blue Bajan is currently a very big price for the Champion at 66s and the 15/2 on offer today looks solid ew to me. He has plenty going for him today and with his yard in good form I can see him putting it up to Punjabi and Sublimity today. He is definitely the value of the race.
Andytown (1.15) would go down as a good bet for me on the card and I was very impressed by his win at Cheltenham and he looks the type of horse that will go on to better things. I think Nicky Henderson has been very shrewd. He entered this horse in a handicap chaser before he won at Cheltenham with the handicapper showing a mark of 115. Now a winner of that handicap hurdle he is rated 133, and will be higher again if scoring here. With the handicapper opting to allow him at the time to enter into a chase handicap off his hurdles mark, he awarded him a chase mark. Clever Mr Henderson now has a 115 chaser who is really about a 145 horse. I feel this horse could end up being in the Dewson line-up off around 121 having collected a penalty race when the weights come out, if I could get an ante post price I would be taking one as he clearly said at the start of the season he feels he’ll be a better chaser than hurdler and chasing was his main aim this season. Today he can add another hurdle race to his tag but he is definitely a well handicapped chaser went sent handicapping back over larger obstacles.
We were in form on the all weather last week with Dansant (6/1 into 5/1) winning and Saptapadi (7/1) 2nd and we hope we can be celebrating in the sand once more.
At Great Leigh’s I’m chucking at 50/1 tempter into the mix today at 3.00. Sally’s Dilemma is in good order at home and she would have gone closer at Kempton but for a bad draw and having to use up a lot of speed getting over. When running on into 3rd she was badly hampered and squeezed back but this seems to have gone unnoticed. The Brocklesby winner is now only rated 69 and her problems of breathing early in the year were fixed with a breathing operation before a break. The tongue tie really helps and well drawn today over 5f having needed the run last time Bill Turner has seen a good opportunity. She has looked in good form at home of late and she should be able to get out and get a good pitch here. I think the form of Rainbow Seeker and Moscow Flight is fair but not outstanding and the handicapper hasn’t been that easy on them. Sally’s Dilemma is undoubtedly well treated on her Brocklesby form and at 50/1 is value ew off a nice mark of 69 with the trainers horses running okay at present.
THREE DUCKS (4.30) is my main bet on the all weather today and I lost a fair bit on her last time when given far too much too do. In the weaker of the two maiden divisions today she has been working very well at home of late and has impressed in her last two gallops with nice types. The step up to the mile will really suit her here and earlier in the season she was only working a few lengths adrift of a useful listed performer called Splashdown who I think could be a serious Oaks prospect next season. I was surprised to see this filly as big as 9/4 when writing this and I will be having a good stake on her today.
We finish off at Wolverhampton in the evening and Cape Express (7.20) should be up to this. It wasn’t a great race that he was disappointing in on debut but he had looked a bit immature at home and ran rather green on track keeping on well. He has since improved on the gallops and looks in good order at present. This step up to 12f today will really suit him and I would be somewhat disappointed if unable to score at this level.
Finally I expect Yungaburra to follow up his recent course and distance win and with a strong pace likely to be there again he looks thrown in under a 7lb rise. Tolley Dean takes a handy 3lb off his back this evening and drawn in stall 7 he should be able to cut in and track the pace before coming late. The yard has been in great form of late and the 4/1 on value is cracking ew value. The Tatling stayed on well in that same race and he should be able to give another good account of himself at the weights and with an 8lb pull I would expect him to get closer and fill the frame. He could be one for the forecast to chase home the well in Parr horse.
Good Luck
Chris
SUPER SATURDAY
Good Morning;
Last Saturday proved successful with 4 winners, 2 places and a sunk lay and today we bid to improve on that feat on what looks a cracking days racing.
The feature card clearly is Sandown and we start their with our main view.
The Henderson camp have been on fire of late and they run a highly regarded type in the 12.50. CLAY HOLLISTER was a highly regarded bumper performer two season’s ago who won in a canter on his debut at Fontwell. Trying to run just a few days later at Kempton in very testing ground he came back very sore and shortly suffered a serious setback. Given all the time he needed to come back he has been impressing at home and the yard feel he is as good as promising hurdler Mad Max. He has schooled very professionally at home and has been found a suitable contest to make a winning return in. His biggest danger may come from World Shift who needed the run on debut but showed enough to consider him an ew player at this level.
It’s a big field for the 1.25 but having scored with Punchestowns and Andytown in recent weeks, Nicky Henderson hopes he has another smart handicap hurdler on his hands in EARTH CRYSTAL. Impressive when winning at Ascot last season under Marcus Foley he looks to have been given a very fair mark of 122 and he has been catching the eye at home working nicely with those previously mentioned promising hurdlers. It really could be a McCoy benevolent fund at Sandown today and Earth Crystal ranks one of the stronger bets. His inexperience will be my only concern and providing I can get double figure prices I will stick savers on Talenti, Shannon Springs and Harris Bay. Talenti is one horse I am keen on and think he is worth following this season as he has a decent race in him this year I’m sure of it. Well treated off 111 in my opinion he wasn’t suited by a stop start gallop at Fontwell last time and was outpaced when the race quickened up. This 2m 4f sure to ran at an even pace will suit. Shannon Springs was brought to my attention at Towcester last time and I was told the Turnell yard thought they had him in great form for his reappearance. He looked the winner throughout but got markedly tired up the hill and just got ran out of it. Beaten up a strong stayer in Character Building on that occasion the 6lb rise was probably about fair but given time to get over that hard race he is one of those who travels easily in his races and could be one to back at long odds before laying off at shorter prices around 2 – 3 out. I want Harris Bay on side as well, given I liked his chances at Ascot and Exeter in both his comeback efforts and wasn’t exactly given the hardest of rides on either occasion. His run at Kempton last time has already been well advertised by the winner, and the 2nd is a strong fancy at Chepstow today. This trip should suit up the hill and now 6lb lower in the weights from his last run he is starting to look well in off 110. Henrietta Knight’s horses are starting to come into a bit of form and he is overpriced at around 16/1.
I really do think this should be going to the promising Earth Crystal whose connections are making loud noises but I will use some cover bets in case one of our big priced ones pop up and upset the party.
FREE WORLD (2.00) looks to have one of the more straightforward tasks today and it was hard not to be very impressed by his slick, athletic jumping on his chasing debut when routing a fairly smart field of novices here under this jockey last time. Araldur claimed the scalp of Chapoturgeon last time and looks some kind of threat, whilst Cheating Chance lowered the colours of Psychomodo and Poquelin recently at Ascot. I would say Free World would be held in a fair bit higher regard than the pair of Nicholls horses beaten already by this pair but for me what excited me about him on debut was his jumping. He jumped immaculately and never touched a twig. Quick in the air McCoy struggled to contain him over his early fences and had to let him bowl along before getting him to settle into his stride. Over the final few fences he opened up again and he looked a serious Arkle horse on that occasion. I have had a few quid on him for the Arkle at 16s and the 14s on offer at present I feel will be at least halved by 2.10. His jumping is key here and if he gets out and dominates he will steal lengths at his fences and really put his rivals to the sword. He probably won’t be the biggest price in the world but I would be interested in some Arkle/2.00 Sandown special doubles that are sure to be available on request and if I could snap up a bit of 18s or 20s, I would be looking to back that, then lay off in the Arkle market after the race at around 8s for a free 12/1 or so bet on the Arkle. I think he’s a bit special.
Not a vintage Tingle Creek at 2.35 but its hard to get away from MASTER MINDED who seems to have been presented with another golden opportunity for McCoy today. I was always told you don’t get rich backing odds on shots but I think at 4/7 he is definitely far more appealing as a bet rather than a lay that’s for sure.
His opposition really doesn’t look too dangerous. We’re told L’Antartique isn’t ready for this and will be outpaced, Fiepes Shuffle failed to beat Andreas off levels at the end of last season, so its hard to see him challenging Master Minded. Mahogany Blaze has struggled against better opposition of late and wants further whilst Takeroc an exciting chaser in his own right but would be getting well over a stone in a handicap and found disappointingly little for pressure at Wincanton. Twist Magic has gone backwards of late and the fact Takeroc is preferred by the Nicholls team as a number two is slightly worrying, the ground will suit but fears are the breathing operation didn’t work. This is before we get to his main challenger Tidal Bay who won well at Carlisle and jumped fluently, however despite his demolition in last season’s Arkle his best form had come over slightly further and it must be disputed whether he is quick enough to lay down a serious challenge to the Champion Chase winner.
Master Minded for me is miles better than the field, and that’s not just on his amazing Cheltenham win. His Game Spirit success at Newbury makes him looks a very classy 2m prospect and providing he doesn’t uproot one of his fences which saw him tip up at Exeter last season, then he should be making a winning reapprence.
McCoy’s hopes of making it five take a backward knock in the next as he has to ride Sunnyhillboy in the 3.05. The Cheltenham winner won well on that occasion but the 2nd has been turned over since and a ten pound rise was high enough. This is much stronger.
The Henderson team wanted McCoy on board Blue Shark who is one of two selections for me in the race. The high class hurdler of many moons ago when winning at Chepstow and becoming a hot favourite for the Triumph Hurdle has been off a long time since plagued with injury problems but Nicky Henderson has never given up on getting him back and the yard feel he is seriously well treated off 133. Marcus Foley an able deputy gets the leg up here and after plenty of promise on the gallops a big run is expected. The yard would have wanted a drop more rain but with a frost overnight thawing out, the drop should ride a little easier. He is a big player.
Another yard keen to get McCoy on board was the Nicholls camp on their runner TCHICO POLOS comes here held in high regard. Christian Williams is taking every chance with open arms at present and having rode a nice double (one aid of the stewards) at Exeter yesterday he comes here in good spirit. Christian Williams would love to get his old job back at Nicholls and its seems the Ditcheat handler is willing to put the past behind them and throw out a lifeline giving him some smart opportunities of late. Remember it was Christian Williams who first brought Noland and Denman to our attentions and Tchico Polos comes here with a high reputation. He didn’t have to beat too much at Wincanton but the Henderson horse in 2nd was a useful bumper performer which was hardly unfancied in that contest. Off 127 confidence is high in the Nicholls camp and I make him my marginal preference over Blue Shark.
Five Dream who is running to keep the weight down for Tchico Polos ran okay at Chepstow but needs a stiffer task and would be better with more cut, he is likely to go chasing before too long.
Wingman and Kings Revenge are others that come here in good form and reportedly have solid claims but the two promising sorts from Henderson’s and Nicholls could end up being a lot better than this class and around 5/1 each they represent solid ew bets. I suppose they say they don’t come back, but lets hope they haven’t told Blue Shark as he could add more spice to the Champion Hurdle picture, whilst Tchico Polos could well be a smart novice who is only regarded 3rd best novice in the yard behind The Nightingale and Hebridean.
We finish proceedings in Surrey at 3.35 where in a race I’m not too keen on I’m willing to place my faith in Kilbeggan Blade who comes here form the in form Tom George yard and is in a race that will suit given he stays all day and should get a good solid pace set by Tana River. Winning on his prep over hurdles on his return 41 days ago at Towcester he comes here in good order for a solid race and with Eric’s Charm, and Tana River you can expect a pure test of stamina. He would be each way value for me whilst Victor Dartnall’s team are also in good form and Sporting Rebel is considered a well handicapped horse at the foot of the weights, he could also be worthy of each way interest. I’ll stick with the George horse however who under McCoy could help the Champ onto at least a treble but hopefully a five timer.
Nicholls sends his assault all the way Chepstow and the yard are quietly confident of troubling the judge four times today.
Sam Thomas got a bit of confidence back at Wincanton on Thursday and Charity Lane (12.25) and Inchidaly Rock (2.45) should be the straightforward tasks for him. Both are nice novices who have schooled promisingly and are strongly fancied despite being short.
NAKAI (1.00) remains the yards best hope on the card and having had a good comeback run behind Duc de Regniere last time here comes here in really good form. He needed that run to switch him off and his schooling over fences has reportedly been very pleasing. He is a horse the Nicholls camp have always held in very high regard and he looks to have been found a suitable opportunity on his chasing debut where he carries plenty of confidence for his jockey who will be chasing four today.
Gullible Gordon (3.45) was a horse I paddocked at Exeter and he didn’t look sharp enough for me and as a result I advised a lay on him, so I wasn’t surprised to see him get turned over. He is a horse who is quite gross and looks as if it will take a couple of races for him to be spot on. He looks a natural chaser in the making and I think he actually ran well considering last time. It was a kids race as well and looking a bit lazy and lethargic he gave his rider quite a hard ride. I don’t think we’ll see the best of him until he tackles larger obstacles but he reminds me a lot of what Gungadu was like in his early races and I think Gullible Gordon will be in much better form today and I think his price of around 9/4 offers plenty of value. I would be backing him today, with an eye on the Victor Dartnall challenger Giles Cross who didn’t have a hard time of it on debut and was not disgraced behind a nice prospect of Nicholls (Inchidaly Rock) and could give the selection most to think about.
The Nicholls domination can halted at 2.10 when David Pipe saddles the well handicapped Pauillac. I’m not sure what happened at Exeter but having seen him in the paddock he looked a bit dull and looked in need of the run. I had backed him early in the morning that day so you can imagine my disappointment when I only graded him a 5 in the paddock. Presenting Copper and Lysander should at least set a strong gallop for Pauillac which is what he needs and Timmy Murphy never gave up on him last time and to me suggested that this step up in trip would really suit. The Pipe horses are coming back into a bit of form and still being a young horse he is open to a bit more improvement than the majority of his opposition here. At 7/2 I would be looking to have a nice ew on him. Presenting Copper (Lay) wont get it easy up front with Lysander in the race and the 3/1 favourite has to be opposed in my opinion. I don’t rate this horse highly and she also takes a chance at her fences. Never won beyond 2m 2f she doesn’t always pick up and efforts over this trip and further have been disappointing. She looks a solid lay for me and all she will do if taking on Lysander in a dual, is set it up for the Pipe horse. Heres to hoping hey.
Wetherby remains in doubt but I’m still going to pledge my allegiance against Punjabi again. I tipped up Blue Bajan for it to be called off last week and whilst we will only have 2 places instead of 3 this weekend if it goes ahead, I feel that Blue Bajan on this flatter track has more going for him and seriously think he can beat Blue Bajan. For me Sublimity wont be quick enough for this, he just stays on one paced and as for Punjabi I just think he is a bit short in the betting and he seems to always need his first run back after a break (4th last season, and beaten on his debut as a 3yo, only times he has had breaks between races). I think the pace will be strong here with Harper Valley and Beau Michel likely pacesetters and that can set it up for the strong travelling Blue Bajan who is surely to be produced coming to the last. Only Beau Michel and himself have had a prep run this season and that can give them a fitness edge here. I think Blue Bajan is currently a very big price for the Champion at 66s and the 15/2 on offer today looks solid ew to me. He has plenty going for him today and with his yard in good form I can see him putting it up to Punjabi and Sublimity today. He is definitely the value of the race.
Andytown (1.15) would go down as a good bet for me on the card and I was very impressed by his win at Cheltenham and he looks the type of horse that will go on to better things. I think Nicky Henderson has been very shrewd. He entered this horse in a handicap chaser before he won at Cheltenham with the handicapper showing a mark of 115. Now a winner of that handicap hurdle he is rated 133, and will be higher again if scoring here. With the handicapper opting to allow him at the time to enter into a chase handicap off his hurdles mark, he awarded him a chase mark. Clever Mr Henderson now has a 115 chaser who is really about a 145 horse. I feel this horse could end up being in the Dewson line-up off around 121 having collected a penalty race when the weights come out, if I could get an ante post price I would be taking one as he clearly said at the start of the season he feels he’ll be a better chaser than hurdler and chasing was his main aim this season. Today he can add another hurdle race to his tag but he is definitely a well handicapped chaser went sent handicapping back over larger obstacles.
We were in form on the all weather last week with Dansant (6/1 into 5/1) winning and Saptapadi (7/1) 2nd and we hope we can be celebrating in the sand once more.
At Great Leigh’s I’m chucking at 50/1 tempter into the mix today at 3.00. Sally’s Dilemma is in good order at home and she would have gone closer at Kempton but for a bad draw and having to use up a lot of speed getting over. When running on into 3rd she was badly hampered and squeezed back but this seems to have gone unnoticed. The Brocklesby winner is now only rated 69 and her problems of breathing early in the year were fixed with a breathing operation before a break. The tongue tie really helps and well drawn today over 5f having needed the run last time Bill Turner has seen a good opportunity. She has looked in good form at home of late and she should be able to get out and get a good pitch here. I think the form of Rainbow Seeker and Moscow Flight is fair but not outstanding and the handicapper hasn’t been that easy on them. Sally’s Dilemma is undoubtedly well treated on her Brocklesby form and at 50/1 is value ew off a nice mark of 69 with the trainers horses running okay at present.
THREE DUCKS (4.30) is my main bet on the all weather today and I lost a fair bit on her last time when given far too much too do. In the weaker of the two maiden divisions today she has been working very well at home of late and has impressed in her last two gallops with nice types. The step up to the mile will really suit her here and earlier in the season she was only working a few lengths adrift of a useful listed performer called Splashdown who I think could be a serious Oaks prospect next season. I was surprised to see this filly as big as 9/4 when writing this and I will be having a good stake on her today.
We finish off at Wolverhampton in the evening and Cape Express (7.20) should be up to this. It wasn’t a great race that he was disappointing in on debut but he had looked a bit immature at home and ran rather green on track keeping on well. He has since improved on the gallops and looks in good order at present. This step up to 12f today will really suit him and I would be somewhat disappointed if unable to score at this level.
Finally I expect Yungaburra to follow up his recent course and distance win and with a strong pace likely to be there again he looks thrown in under a 7lb rise. Tolley Dean takes a handy 3lb off his back this evening and drawn in stall 7 he should be able to cut in and track the pace before coming late. The yard has been in great form of late and the 4/1 on value is cracking ew value. The Tatling stayed on well in that same race and he should be able to give another good account of himself at the weights and with an 8lb pull I would expect him to get closer and fill the frame. He could be one for the forecast to chase home the well in Parr horse.
Good Luck
Chris
